Brianchevy
Well-Known Member
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- Nov 28, 2008
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Dear VolNation,
it's time for some reflection on the year. Logically, my son and I talked about strength of schedule, about how UT lost to 3 of the BCS top 4 -- I am a numbers guy, and we thought it would be interesting to study. So we looked it up. Considering only the real games we played this year (1-7) in those matters:
NCSU 6-5
Florida 10-1
Georgia 10-1
MSU 8-3
Bama 10-1
USC 9-2
Mizzou 5-6
Vandy 7-4
COMBINED record: 65 - 23, .736 winning percentage
now, some of you will argue that those teams got fat off of their games with UT. Sure, ok -- true, let's take those games out:
IF these teams DID NOT PLAY UT, the teams would still be 58-22, a .725 win percentage. Now, when you compare that winning percentage against the top 20 rankings, you would drop all the way down to 8-3 Michigan at #19. That means the AVERAGE opponent we've played (in the real games) would be ranked in the top 20. But many of them were, certainly the top, but even more.
Speaking of top 20, let's examine that. UT played (and lost to the following):
#2 (Bama)
#3 (Georgia)
#4 (Florida)
#12 (USCe)
#29 - AP ranked - (MSU)
#40 - AP ranked - (vandy)
That my friends is a BRUTAL schedule and if you think otherwise you are insane. I know I am going to get flamed for saying this, but I think the very best we could have expected was 7-4. Yes the team disappointed, yes the coaches disappointed. But consider the challenge, it was crazy...
I always like crunching the numbers to see what the real story was -- when you strip away the emotional "it was a complete failure, we are a train wreck" and when you look how experienced we will be NEXT FALL (even with Bray/Hunter/Patterson in the NFL), we will still be much improved. Now to find the right leadership to build upon what was done this year.
Thanks for listening...
it's time for some reflection on the year. Logically, my son and I talked about strength of schedule, about how UT lost to 3 of the BCS top 4 -- I am a numbers guy, and we thought it would be interesting to study. So we looked it up. Considering only the real games we played this year (1-7) in those matters:
NCSU 6-5
Florida 10-1
Georgia 10-1
MSU 8-3
Bama 10-1
USC 9-2
Mizzou 5-6
Vandy 7-4
COMBINED record: 65 - 23, .736 winning percentage
now, some of you will argue that those teams got fat off of their games with UT. Sure, ok -- true, let's take those games out:
IF these teams DID NOT PLAY UT, the teams would still be 58-22, a .725 win percentage. Now, when you compare that winning percentage against the top 20 rankings, you would drop all the way down to 8-3 Michigan at #19. That means the AVERAGE opponent we've played (in the real games) would be ranked in the top 20. But many of them were, certainly the top, but even more.
Speaking of top 20, let's examine that. UT played (and lost to the following):
#2 (Bama)
#3 (Georgia)
#4 (Florida)
#12 (USCe)
#29 - AP ranked - (MSU)
#40 - AP ranked - (vandy)
That my friends is a BRUTAL schedule and if you think otherwise you are insane. I know I am going to get flamed for saying this, but I think the very best we could have expected was 7-4. Yes the team disappointed, yes the coaches disappointed. But consider the challenge, it was crazy...
I always like crunching the numbers to see what the real story was -- when you strip away the emotional "it was a complete failure, we are a train wreck" and when you look how experienced we will be NEXT FALL (even with Bray/Hunter/Patterson in the NFL), we will still be much improved. Now to find the right leadership to build upon what was done this year.
Thanks for listening...
