Talent Analysis (slightly long and with 2 adjustments)

[Face]

Here we go for OU...


The recruiting class rankings for OU according to Rivals are as follows:
2014 – 15
2013 – 15
2012 – 11
2011 – 14
The average OU recruiting class for that time interval is 13.8.

The % (ignoring the effect of JUCOs; i.e. JUCOs count for the year they signed) of players on the roster corresponding with each recruiting year are:
2014 – 29.0%
2013 – 25.8%
2012 – 26.9%
2011 – 18.3%
The weighted average recruiting rank by % of class on roster is 13.7.

I made one more weighted average calculation. Assuming half the players starting are SRs, 25% are JRs, 15% are SOs, and 10% are FRs, the w/a recruiting class is 93.8.

The composite rank according to the above measures is 13.5.

Comparing this to our numbers:
Rivals Rank
2014 – 5
2013 – 21
2012 – 17
2011 – 13
Average: 14.0.

The % (ignoring the effect of JUCOs) of players on the roster corresponding with each recruiting year are:
2014 – 31.7%
2013 – 21.0%
2012 – 21.0%
2011 – 26.7%
The weighted average recruiting rank by % of class on roster is 13.0.

Our roster has been pretty wonky, so i made the measure a little different in W/A by starter in each class.

Assuming 30% of the players starting are SRs, 20% are JRs, 30% are SOs, and 30% are FRs, the w/a recruiting class is 13.8.

Composite: 13.6


Our composite talent advantage (or deficit) is: 0.1. (Ensue “We did this with UO last year!!!!” comments)


Against USU, we had a CTA (Composite Talent Advantage) of 86.2. This lead to an effective 0.36 point victory margin (PVM) per talent per CTA point (31/86.2).

Against ASU, we had a CTA (Composite Talent Advantage) of 79.7. This lead to an effective 0.19 point victory margin (PVM) per talent per CTA point (15/79.7).



Now, since recruiting is basically a wash (according to blind rankings), there are no average we can put together to make sense of it.

My assessment is to make an adjustment to the CTA/PVM ratio based on experience and home field advantage. We were home in both games, but there was a huge difference between the sellout opener and the ASU crowd. I’m going to say a sellout home game is an 10 point advantage. Experience is worth 3. (making educated guesses here)

I’ll work these into the talent ratios for the UGA game, but they make no impact this week because of the wash in rankings. Basically, the crowd had a 10 point effect against USU and a minimal effect against ASU (in my unprofessional analysis).

If a sellout is work 8 and experience/strong system developed players are worth 5, a 10% margin of error applied says OU wins by 11-15 points.

Sorry for the length and no real stats this time around. I think home field and developed system players make the difference. Hope I'm wrong. Butch has done well against Stoops in the past.

Conclusion: OU has a slightly better talent product on the field (due to Dooley busts and attrition and system changes) and probably takes this one. I don't think we get throttled though. And we have enough skill player fire power to make something happen if we get a few breaks.

 

[volglass]

Since I was the first to read, I will reply. I hope your numbers show up on the field and we keep this respectable.

What about RS Seniors?

 

[Face]

Since I was the first to read, I will reply. I hope your numbers show up on the field and we keep this respectable.

What about RS Seniors?

My hope as well. I don't see us having the mentality to lay down anymore and we have enough speed to keep big plays in check (I do predict cole gets toasted twice for long plays tho)

I usually do these threads at work so I don't get too deep in rosters unfortunately.

 

[RollerVol]

Amazing how having one descent coaching staff for several years can do for a winning percentage. :loco:

GO VOLS!

 

[IBleedOrange]

My hope as well. I don't see us having the mentality to lay down anymore and we have enough speed to keep big plays in check (I do predict cole gets toasted twice for long plays tho)

I usually do these threads at work so I don't get too deep in rosters unfortunately.

I wish I had that kind of free time at work and still got paid for it

 

[VolinDalton]

.

 

[VolinDalton]

Here we go for OU...


The recruiting class rankings for OU according to Rivals are as follows:
2014 – 15
2013 – 15
2012 – 11
2011 – 14
The average OU recruiting class for that time interval is 13.8.

The % (ignoring the effect of JUCOs; i.e. JUCOs count for the year they signed) of players on the roster corresponding with each recruiting year are:
2014 – 29.0%
2013 – 25.8%
2012 – 26.9%
2011 – 18.3%
The weighted average recruiting rank by % of class on roster is 13.7.

I made one more weighted average calculation. Assuming half the players starting are SRs, 25% are JRs, 15% are SOs, and 10% are FRs, the w/a recruiting class is 93.8.

The composite rank according to the above measures is 13.5.

Comparing this to our numbers:
Rivals Rank
2014 – 5
2013 – 21
2012 – 17
2011 – 13
Average: 14.0.

The % (ignoring the effect of JUCOs) of players on the roster corresponding with each recruiting year are:
2014 – 31.7%
2013 – 21.0%
2012 – 21.0%
2011 – 26.7%
The weighted average recruiting rank by % of class on roster is 13.0.

Our roster has been pretty wonky, so i made the measure a little different in W/A by starter in each class.

Assuming 30% of the players starting are SRs, 20% are JRs, 30% are SOs, and 30% are FRs, the w/a recruiting class is 13.8.

Composite: 13.6


Our composite talent advantage (or deficit) is: 0.1. (Ensue “We did this with UO last year!!!!” comments)


Against USU, we had a CTA (Composite Talent Advantage) of 86.2. This lead to an effective 0.36 point victory margin (PVM) per talent per CTA point (31/86.2).

Against ASU, we had a CTA (Composite Talent Advantage) of 79.7. This lead to an effective 0.19 point victory margin (PVM) per talent per CTA point (15/79.7).



Now, since recruiting is basically a wash (according to blind rankings), there are no average we can put together to make sense of it.

My assessment is to make an adjustment to the CTA/PVM ratio based on experience and home field advantage. We were home in both games, but there was a huge difference between the sellout opener and the ASU crowd. I’m going to say a sellout home game is an 10 point advantage. Experience is worth 3. (making educated guesses here)

I’ll work these into the talent ratios for the UGA game, but they make no impact this week because of the wash in rankings. Basically, the crowd had a 10 point effect against USU and a minimal effect against ASU (in my unprofessional analysis).

If a sellout is work 8 and experience/strong system developed players are worth 5, a 10% margin of error applied says OU wins by 11-15 points.

Sorry for the length and no real stats this time around. I think home field and developed system players make the difference. Hope I'm wrong. Butch has done well against Stoops in the past.

Conclusion: OU has a slightly better talent product on the field (due to Dooley busts and attrition and system changes) and probably takes this one. I don't think we get throttled though. And we have enough skill player fire power to make something happen if we get a few breaks.

I'm impressed by your metrics here. But what do you think about how OU has performed against their first two teams vs. how UT has performed against their first two teams. Based on the metrics I looked at, Tennessee performed well beyond their 3rd week opponent. Strength of opponent has lend itself to Tennessee having a SOS advantage in the first two games. JW has come out with a better QB rating than TK. Our 3rd down defense has also proved to be better by 30+ places in FBS play.

I guess these numbers are just BS and my orange glasses are skewing the numbers in UT's favor to all the negavols on this site....

 

[Face]

I wish I had that kind of free time at work and still got paid for it

It's pretty embarrassing really. I have a template for this thread. I just plug in the numbers and get the analysis. It takes me about 5-10 minutes.

 

[Face]

I'm impressed by your metrics here. But what do you think about how OU has performed against their first two teams vs. how UT has performed against their first two teams. Based on the metrics I looked at, Tennessee performed well beyond their 3rd week opponent. Strength of opponent has lend itself to Tennessee having a SOS advantage in the first two games. JW has come out with a better QB rating than TK. Our 3rd down defense has also proved to be better by 30+ places in FBS play.

I guess these numbers are just BS and my orange glasses are skewing the numbers in UT's favor to all the negavols on this site....

I think the numbers you have are legitimate. I think the LOS will be the separator. OU is hyped because they beat bama. They lost some bad games last year. But.. They know they can beat a bama, and that makes them have an edge at home. Their home record is pretty outstanding. A bit deceitful because they play Texas on a neutral site.