Tenn vs teams trending the wrong way.

[Other_Guy]

Several prominent teams are either trending the wrong way or aren't trending up (which still mean wrong way for them) at a time I really feel Tenn is trending way up. Even with the SEC becoming more competitive in some ways, I think Tenn is about to leapfrog several programs.

Obviously, Tenn is going to climb in the rankings automatically by FSU and LSU losing but I'm thinking those teams are going to be stuck at "solid but not great" programs at best.
Notre Dame will never be better than a 10-2 or weak 11-1 program. Tenn has been on the cusp of being a better program and I think will be by seasons end.
Most expect Michigan to slip, even without any penalties.
If there was ever a doubt about Florida, that last nail is finally in the coffin.
USC and Oklahoma have been in a slow decline. I also kinda feel like Tenn will overtake them after this year.
Even if Debeor has a successful career, it'll still be a slight decline for Bama (surely, right? Lol).
I get this sounds like I have orange tinted glasses on top of orange tinted glasses, but my point is it feels like Tenn is really close to being equal with these programs and so many of the big bad boys of yesterday are trending backwards or can't take the next step. And sure, when teams fall, others rise. But I like their chances.
If Tenn can just make the playoffs and get a great matchup for an upset or big home win (what team that isn't used to playing Heupel wants any piece of a hot Tenn team???), imagine the boost it would give this program.
Edit: completely forgot about Clemson.

 

[J C Higgins]

One game at a time.

 

[Voltopia]

Several prominent teams are either trending the wrong way or aren't trending up (which still mean wrong way for them) at a time I really feel Tenn is trending way up. Even with the SEC becoming more competitive in some ways, I think Tenn is about to leapfrog several programs.

Obviously, Tenn is going to climb in the rankings automatically by FSU and LSU losing but I'm thinking those teams are going to be stuck at "solid but not great" programs at best.
Notre Dame will never be better than a 10-2 or weak 11-1 program. Tenn has been on the cusp of being a better program and I think will be by seasons end.
Most expect Michigan to slip, even without any penalties.
If there was ever a doubt about Florida, that last nail is finally in the coffin.
USC and Oklahoma have been in a slow decline. I also kinda feel like Tenn will overtake them after this year.
Even if Debeor has a successful career, it'll still be a slight decline for Bama (surely, right? Lol).
I get this sounds like I have orange tinted glasses on top of orange tinted glasses, but my point is it feels like Tenn is really close to being equal with these programs and so many of the big bad boys of yesterday are trending backwards or can't take the next step. And sure, when teams fall, others rise. But I like their chances.
If Tenn can just make the playoffs and get a great matchup for an upset or big home win (what team that isn't used to playing Heupel wants any piece of a hot Tenn team???), imagine the boost it would give this program.

Florida, yes. They appear to be swamped in the same sort of instability Tennessee was mired in for most of the 2010s.

Michigan I could see, since Harbaugh pulled the plug, but they actually have to have a few bad years before we can call them declining.

But Notre Dame? Notre Dame has gone 63-14 since Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee. A bunch of 10 win + seasons and one 9 win season, and an 82% win percentage. They kicked off this year by beating Texas A&M at Texas A&M. It's going to take a lot more than 2022 and then a successful year this year to justify putting UT ahead of them.

USC was in a tailspin with Clay Helton for five years, but Riley came in, they won 11, then 8 last year, and they just kicked off year three by winning a big one against LSU on a neutral field. I don't think that qualifies as a decline. If anything, they're also trending upward.

Oklahoma fell off from Lincoln Riley's constant 12 win seasons, agreed, but they had one hiccup year with Venables (6-7) and then hit 10-3 last season. That's not much of a decline either.

And an Alabama decline? Yes. Saban won six titles and almost every game he coached. A decline is inevitable there, but declining from "most successful program in the modern era" leaves a lot of room to still be good or excellent.

I agree that Tennessee is improving significantly and trending upward, but I don't any of the programs you cited save Florida are in any sort of real decline. Michigan maybe. But otherwise, I just don't see it. If one of them starts gagging on 5-7 win seasons, then sure, but otherwise? Not seeing it.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Florida, yes. They appear to be swamped in the same sort of instability Tennessee was mired in for most of the 2010s.

Michigan I could see, since Harbaugh pulled the plug, but they actually have to have a few bad years before we can call them declining.

But Notre Dame? Notre Dame has gone 63-14 since Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee. A bunch of 10 win + seasons and one 9 win season, and an 82% win percentage. They kicked off this year by beating Texas A&M at Texas A&M. It's going to take a lot more than 2022 and then a successful year this year to justify putting UT ahead of them.

USC was in a tailspin with Clay Helton for five years, but Riley came in, they won 11, then 8 last year, and they just kicked off year three by winning a big one against LSU on a neutral field. I don't think that qualifies as a decline. If anything, they're also trending upward.

Oklahoma fell off from Lincoln Riley's constant 12 win seasons, agreed, but they had one hiccup year with Venables (6-7) and then hit 10-3 last season. That's not much of a decline either.

And an Alabama decline? Yes. Saban won six titles and almost every game he coached. A decline is inevitable there, but declining from "most successful program in the modern era" leaves a lot of room to still be good or excellent.

I agree that Tennessee is improving significantly and trending upward, but I don't any of the programs you cited save Florida are in any sort of real decline. Michigan maybe. But otherwise, I just don't see it. If one of them starts gagging on 5-7 win seasons, then sure, but otherwise? Not seeing it.

Agree with you overall except I wouldn’t say USC is trending upward yet, I wouldn’t put them at declining either. This year will give us a better insight. Last year was definitely a step back and a disappointing year. Overall it is hard to base much of anything based on 1 game this year. Based on the last few years I would say Clemson is declining stock. Then I look at the Aggies and I see declining stock. LSU is neutral stock but it doesn’t feel like it’s trending up. FSU after having a great start last year is definitely not a buyers market at 0-2. As of now it’s declining stock. How they finish the season is big for the short term future. Of course it’s still early, it takes 3-4 weeks seeing everybody in a few real battles before things really shake out. Sometimes early wins end up not looking as good once we get to week 5 and beyond.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I think you're talking about program standing, something that is rarely rated (and even more rarely rated well, with objective standards). If you were just talking about ranking, well, we were the #1 team in the land, briefly, not too long ago in the 2022 season.

So program standings. When objectively measured, the Vols are right up there. Usually right around the #8 to #10 spot. We have the championship history, the fan base, the facilities, the only thing we're missing is the recent championship success.

But program standings move at a glacial pace compared to rankings. Even with an 0-2 start and likely a very disappointing season ahead, FSU's standing as a program will hardly nudge. The downturn will have to be sustained before they seriously begin to slip downward. Keep in mind, just last season a lot of folks thought they should've been invited to the playoffs. They are still of consequence at the top end of the sport.

I agree a program like Notre Dame is somewhat artificially propped up. Nonetheless, they win enough games most years to get into the playoffs, particularly at 12 teams. That combined with their strong football history will keep their program near the top for many years to come.

And so on.

Bottom line is, we're not watching the movement of programs in the first week or two of a season; we're just watching team rankings upheaved. FSU will drop, maybe all the way out of the Top 25. Clemson will drop like a rock. LSU will drop a bit (not as bad).

And the Vols will rise. Probably to about the #11 or #12 spot.

Go Vols!

 

[BADGER_VOL]

Florida, yes. They appear to be swamped in the same sort of instability Tennessee was mired in for most of the 2010s.

Michigan I could see, since Harbaugh pulled the plug, but they actually have to have a few bad years before we can call them declining.

But Notre Dame? Notre Dame has gone 63-14 since Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee. A bunch of 10 win + seasons and one 9 win season, and an 82% win percentage. They kicked off this year by beating Texas A&M at Texas A&M. It's going to take a lot more than 2022 and then a successful year this year to justify putting UT ahead of them.

USC was in a tailspin with Clay Helton for five years, but Riley came in, they won 11, then 8 last year, and they just kicked off year three by winning a big one against LSU on a neutral field. I don't think that qualifies as a decline. If anything, they're also trending upward.

Oklahoma fell off from Lincoln Riley's constant 12 win seasons, agreed, but they had one hiccup year with Venables (6-7) and then hit 10-3 last season. That's not much of a decline either.

And an Alabama decline? Yes. Saban won six titles and almost every game he coached. A decline is inevitable there, but declining from "most successful program in the modern era" leaves a lot of room to still be good or excellent.

I agree that Tennessee is improving significantly and trending upward, but I don't any of the programs you cited save Florida are in any sort of real decline. Michigan maybe. But otherwise, I just don't see it. If one of them starts gagging on 5-7 win seasons, then sure, but otherwise? Not seeing it.

Ye on all this and OU is going nowhere except that it’ll be harder in the SEC. But it won’t be from program decline but rather the SEC will usually add another loss to a typical year for them.

 

[WoodsmanVol]

One game at a time.

Indeed. Seems we have a fraction of fans who are latex balloons. A little success and they get puffed up beyond the limits of the balloon's elastically. I suppose they are exhibiting the reverse of BVS, with OIE (over inflated egos). Please, be proud of our boys but without the obnoxious attitude more associated with Bama, GA, and Fla. Surely, we're better than that.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Several prominent teams are either trending the wrong way or aren't trending up (which still mean wrong way for them) at a time I really feel Tenn is trending way up. Even with the SEC becoming more competitive in some ways, I think Tenn is about to leapfrog several programs.

Obviously, Tenn is going to climb in the rankings automatically by FSU and LSU losing but I'm thinking those teams are going to be stuck at "solid but not great" programs at best.
Notre Dame will never be better than a 10-2 or weak 11-1 program. Tenn has been on the cusp of being a better program and I think will be by seasons end.
Most expect Michigan to slip, even without any penalties.
If there was ever a doubt about Florida, that last nail is finally in the coffin.
USC and Oklahoma have been in a slow decline. I also kinda feel like Tenn will overtake them after this year.
Even if Debeor has a successful career, it'll still be a slight decline for Bama (surely, right? Lol).
I get this sounds like I have orange tinted glasses on top of orange tinted glasses, but my point is it feels like Tenn is really close to being equal with these programs and so many of the big bad boys of yesterday are trending backwards or can't take the next step. And sure, when teams fall, others rise. But I like their chances.
If Tenn can just make the playoffs and get a great matchup for an upset or big home win (what team that isn't used to playing Heupel wants any piece of a hot Tenn team???), imagine the boost it would give this program.

Notre Dame will go undefeated this year because their schedule is pathetic.

 

[Mccage]

Several prominent teams are either trending the wrong way or aren't trending up (which still mean wrong way for them) at a time I really feel Tenn is trending way up. Even with the SEC becoming more competitive in some ways, I think Tenn is about to leapfrog several programs.

Obviously, Tenn is going to climb in the rankings automatically by FSU and LSU losing but I'm thinking those teams are going to be stuck at "solid but not great" programs at best.
Notre Dame will never be better than a 10-2 or weak 11-1 program. Tenn has been on the cusp of being a better program and I think will be by seasons end.
Most expect Michigan to slip, even without any penalties.
If there was ever a doubt about Florida, that last nail is finally in the coffin.
USC and Oklahoma have been in a slow decline. I also kinda feel like Tenn will overtake them after this year.
Even if Debeor has a successful career, it'll still be a slight decline for Bama (surely, right? Lol).
I get this sounds like I have orange tinted glasses on top of orange tinted glasses, but my point is it feels like Tenn is really close to being equal with these programs and so many of the big bad boys of yesterday are trending backwards or can't take the next step. And sure, when teams fall, others rise. But I like their chances.
If Tenn can just make the playoffs and get a great matchup for an upset or big home win (what team that isn't used to playing Heupel wants any piece of a hot Tenn team???), imagine the boost it would give this program.

Add some brake fluid please

 

[Other_Guy]

Indeed. Seems we have a fraction of fans who are latex balloons. A little success and they get puffed up beyond the limits of the balloon's elastically. I suppose they are exhibiting the reverse of BVS, with OIE (over inflated egos). Please, be proud of our boys but without the obnoxious attitude more associated with Bama, GA, and Fla. Surely, we're better than that.

I merely pointed out that Tenn is within reach of some of these schools and trending upward while several other prominent schools are either declining or simply not going anywhere. What is so irrational about that?

 

[Advol]

One game at a time.

One REAL game at a time. Scrimmages dont count!

 

[WoodsmanVol]

I merely pointed out that Tenn is within reach of some of these schools and trending upward while several other prominent schools are either declining or simply not going anywhere. What is so irrational about that?

I made an observation based on several posts since the Nooga game. And we will see more of the same, as our Vols folks exult in our apparent return to winning, but should get too high and mighty. What is so irrational about that?

 

[WillisWG]

NC State likely drops out of T25 in today's release. Spoils that T25 match up.

 

[Savannahbayvol]

Notre Dame will go undefeated this year because their schedule is pathetic.

USC in Los Angeles?

 

[kptvol1452]

I merely pointed out that Tenn is within reach of some of these schools and trending upward while several other prominent schools are either declining or simply not going anywhere. What is so irrational about that?

Look @ post from J C

 

[adam.vol]

Notre Dame rarely plays a top 10 team.

A&M did not deserve a top 25 ranking after firing their previous head coach. Now that Texas is back as an in-conference foe, they are no longer the richest program around. They’re headed heading back to “forever mid”.

Brian Kelly is proof that anyone can win 10 games at Notre Dame. He’s building ul loss numbers that got previous head coaches fired at LSU.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Notre Dame will go undefeated this year because their schedule is pathetic.

Yep.

Unless FSU somehow gets its stuff together, ND will likely be 11-0 going into their final game of the regular season against USCw.

Their next-toughest games are probably Army, Stanford, and Purdue. It's an incredibly weak schedule.

Go Vols!

 

[Tin Man]

Hey, I proudly wear orange-tinted glasses. GBO.

 

[pimo1]

Notre Dame will go undefeated this year because their schedule is pathetic.

What schedule are you looking at? Their schedule is not as hard as it normally is but its far from pathetic. Every team on their schedule is FBS (not many teams can say that) Only 4 of their games are against teams not in P4 conferences (2 MAC and 2 American). They are scheduled to face 3 ranked teams plus Georgia Tech (who will very likely be ranked by the time they play ND). Thats not a weak schedule sir. The one argument that can be made is they only play 3 actual road games. But those are A&M (already won), Purdue and USC(ranked).

 

[volbound1700]

NIL world opens the door for teams to recover faster IMO. Prior to NIL, it took almost a decade to get out of a slump. Look at Tennessee as an example.

Some thoughts on teams mentioned:

1. Florida and FSU are in major trouble, especially if Miami continues to win. This makes me think that both programs may be searching for new coaches in the off-season. For Florida, there is an obvious candidate that fits their culture and IMO would work, that is Lane Kiffin. Not sure who FSU goes with.

2. Notre Dame - People bring up their wins but Notre Dame doesn't seem that good to me and they hide behind a soft schedule. I think they will make the playoff and get creamed this year

3. Michigan - I expect them to fall apart this year but we will see. I am seeing them being as bad as 8-4

4. Oklahoma - I am NOT sold on them being "down". They are still recruiting well and won 10 games last year. I think they may surprise some people this year in the SEC

5. USC - Outside of the Pete Carroll run in the 2010s, USC has been kind of a clunker since the 1970s. The 2001-2009 era was very good for them but that was it. Now that they are in the B1G, I think the pressure is on. They beat LSU this weekend and that was a solid win that makes me rethink their program. I am still holding back in reserve about them. USC probably should get more flak for being down than what they are. People like Uncle Lou talk so much about Florida, Tennessee, Miami, Texas, FSU, etc. but not USC when USC has had tons of resources but hasn't done jack since the Pete Carrol era. To add to the insult, USC kind of suck the 10-15 years proceeding Pete Carrol.

 

[VolForLife83]

When does Kiffin's daughter graduate from Ole Miss? Im thinking he takes over at Florida after this season and it'll be hell with him there. Not scared, but that's a place he'll be able to get rolling fairly quickly.

 

[volbound1700]

What schedule are you looking at? Their schedule is not as hard as it normally is but its far from pathetic. Every team on their schedule is FBS (not many teams can say that) Only 4 of their games are against teams not in P4 conferences (2 MAC and 2 American). They are scheduled to face 3 ranked teams plus Georgia Tech (who will very likely be ranked by the time they play ND). Thats not a weak schedule sir. The one argument that can be made is they only play 3 actual road games. But those are A&M (already won), Purdue and USC(ranked).

Posting Notre Dame's schedule:

@ Texas A&M (Win 23-13)
Northern Illinois
@ Purdue
Miami of Ohio
Louisville
Stanford
Georgia Tech
Navy
Florida State
Virginia
Army
@ USC

USC is the only team on their schedule with a pulse and I am still not sold on USC. Louisville might give them trouble.

This is a patty cake schedule.

 

[volbound1700]

What schedule are you looking at? Their schedule is not as hard as it normally is but its far from pathetic. Every team on their schedule is FBS (not many teams can say that) Only 4 of their games are against teams not in P4 conferences (2 MAC and 2 American). They are scheduled to face 3 ranked teams plus Georgia Tech (who will very likely be ranked by the time they play ND). Thats not a weak schedule sir. The one argument that can be made is they only play 3 actual road games. But those are A&M (already won), Purdue and USC(ranked).

It is definitely pathetic, I just posted it. Only 2 top 25 teams on that list: A&M (which will drop out) and USC. Louisville is alright. The rest are mid-majors or low-tier Power 5 programs.

FSU is a joke this year. I think that was supposed to be their "big" game.

 

[volbound1700]

I think you're talking about program standing, something that is rarely rated (and even more rarely rated well, with objective standards). If you were just talking about ranking, well, we were the #1 team in the land, briefly, not too long ago in the 2022 season.

So program standings. When objectively measured, the Vols are right up there. Usually right around the #8 to #10 spot. We have the championship history, the fan base, the facilities, the only thing we're missing is the recent championship success.

But program standings move at a glacial pace compared to rankings. Even with an 0-2 start and likely a very disappointing season ahead, FSU's standing as a program will hardly nudge. The downturn will have to be sustained before they seriously begin to slip downward. Keep in mind, just last season a lot of folks thought they should've been invited to the playoffs. They are still of consequence at the top end of the sport.

I agree a program like Notre Dame is somewhat artificially propped up. Nonetheless, they win enough games most years to get into the playoffs, particularly at 12 teams. That combined with their strong football history will keep their program near the top for many years to come.

And so on.

Bottom line is, we're not watching the movement of programs in the first week or two of a season; we're just watching team rankings upheaved. FSU will drop, maybe all the way out of the Top 25. Clemson will drop like a rock. LSU will drop a bit (not as bad).

And the Vols will rise. Probably to about the #11 or #12 spot.

Go Vols!

Tennessee's biggest issue is going 0-3 against Alabama, Florida, and Georgia most years.

Last year, for example, had Tennessee beaten Florida like they were supposed to, the outlook would be different.

We haven't even played with Georgia yet.

To be back, we need to consistently start beating Florida like we are UK, Vandy, etc. while Florida is down and we need to actually be in a game with Georgia.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Tennessee's biggest issue is going 0-3 against Alabama, Florida, and Georgia most years.

Last year, for example, had Tennessee beaten Florida like they were supposed to, the outlook would be different.

We haven't even played with Georgia yet.

To be back, we need to consistently start beating Florida like we are UK, Vandy, etc. while Florida is down and we need to actually be in a game with Georgia.

Yah, agreed. And now add Texas and Oklahoma to the mix. We have to win more than we lose against those 5 programs, plus probably throw in A&M and LSU, should they ever get their acts together.

We've already started that with LSU, which by extension would indicate we're ready to do the same with A&M (throw in Ole Miss too, if you wish, though I think they're a blip rather than a long-standing problem). They're all the same tier these days. And we're about ready to do that vs Florida in spite of the curse. I think we probably beat them at least 3 times in the next 4 seasons. Can't look much further than that, because they'll have a new coach somewhere in that time period, and by 4 years from now he'll probably have had time to get his system and roster going.

We gotta be 100% back to make it a regular thing vs the other four. I think we're close to that. Depends on the defense, and where they are with the new blood in the backfield. That's the one thing I'm most interested in learning about our team. We'll see some of it this Saturday, but then everything will be revealed in 3 weeks against Oklahoma.

If the defensive backs are legit good, we're already there to start splitting games evenly with the best of the best.

Go Vols!