Tennessee #8 in CFP

[OrangeTsar]

They basically just took the AP top 25 and called it the CFP.

Best bet would be Georgia winning in Atlanta over Texas. Removing Texas from the Conf Champ line means they would have to drop back to the 5-8 range for host teams..... Committee just did rankings tonight based on who they think are best.

GA Tech winning this weekend would be a help wouldn’t it?

 

[sami]

Not necessarily related to us but after dissecting the rankings a bit there is a decent chance that Big 12 doesn’t even get one team in the playoff.

With all the craziness in that league, their CCG has been flipped upside down. As we know Boise has the inside track to the #4 seed and bye if they win out. The fifth auto is probably going to come down to Arizona State, Tulane, and Iowa St, which are currently 16, 17, and 18 respectively. And then you have BYU at 19. Going to be interested to see what happens there but if Tulane beats 9-2 Memphis tomorrow and then beats 10-1 Army in the CCG, Big 12 may not get in at all. Could have two G5 teams. I think this is especially likely if it’s anyone but Arizona St that wins the Big 12 title.

That's the joke of this playoff system. Yes, the Big 12 sucks, but so do the ACC and Big 10, as those two leagues have two legit teams each - if you can even call Miami and Clemson legit. Who would know given their schedules.

While the SEC are beating each others' brains out all year, it still has half the league with at least 8 wins and all but 3 bowl eligible. I would take any of those 8 teams (maybe not Missouri) against Indiana, Penn State, Notre Dame, and any ACC, Big 12 or G5 teams that will be in this thing.

The idea that Boise St., and SMU might be in a national championship playoff is beyond comical, and why this is not a serious deal. If this inane "committee" continues with this "strength of record" idiocy (which I'm convinced was conceived to make Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame appear better than they are), Sankey should take his ball and go home, saying that the SEC would have it's own playoff next year and crown a legitimate champion. Not going to happen, but I'd love it.

 

[sami]

And I find it very interesting that the P4 conferences agreed to a chance that their conference champion was left out. It is probably going to be much easier for teams in all those other conferences for a team to end up with 1 or less losses going forward and the committee has shown that they will push undefeated teams up in the rankings. If Army had beaten Notre Dame, there was no doubt that we would have had both Boise State and Army in the top 12.

As soon as strength of schedule was replaced by "strength of record" as a primary parameter, the SEC was in trouble. This was done to aid the Big 10, but it might get two G5 schools in, which I actually hope happens to show what a complete joke this thing is.

 

[sami]

Strange how the committee has SEC schools paired up with SEC schools and B1G schools playing B1G schools in the 1st round...it's like they just want to extend the regular season.

Not surprised at all if that plays out. It achieves their goal of more Big 10 teams moving on. Also, look for Notre Dame to get matched up with SMU or a G5 school. Meanwhile, we go to Athens.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Assuming we beat Vandy we have to get out of that #8 spot. We need a team(s) ahead of us to lose so we at least move up one spot. That gets to host a 1st rd home game and not having to go to GA for a 1st rd and Oregon 2nd. Good chance of that happening to.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Just to state the obvious, there’s something very close to a zero percent chance that Georgia is actually our first opponent. There’s quite a bit of shuffling on the way, and no scenario where GA holds that rank. They will definitively move up or down after the results the their next two games, and the games of others.

 

[YankeeVol]

Just to state the obvious, there’s something very close to a zero percent chance that Georgia is actually our first opponent. There’s quite a bit of shuffling on the way, and no scenario where GA holds that rank. They will definitively move up or down after the results the their next two games, and the games of others.

Exactly

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

There is so much brand bias from cfb fans and I am glad the committee ignores it for the most part...people talk about SMU but every objective ranking system has them in the 5-15 range and it's hard to see their results and think anything other than this is a very good football team. But people see the name and think, "oh it's Indiana...they have no business with these other teams", when what they have done before 2024 has no bearing.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Assuming we beat Vandy we have to get out of that #8 spot. We need a team(s) ahead of us to lose so we at least move up one spot. That gets to host a 1st rd home game and not having to go to GA for a 1st rd and Oregon 2nd. Good chance of that happening to.

Certain teams losing help us. We need to root for predictable outcomes among top teams, losses from teams that sit 5-8, and no odd outliers. Those in the know believe Sanky will lobby furiously for a fourth team from the conference, if SCe wins or ND loses, or if A&M wins. Things get messy if more than one of those happens. Texas and UGA are going to force changes in the order regardless, but it’s difficult to predict how as the variables are too great. Playing through a few scenarios, it’s possible we play PSU, IU or Texas away, or a different set of teams at home if we can hop up a line or two.

 

[ButchPlz]

There is so much brand bias from cfb fans and I am glad the committee ignores it for the most part...people talk about SMU but every objective ranking system has them in the 5-15 range and it's hard to see their results and think anything other than this is a very good football team. But people see the name and think, "oh it's Indiana...they have no business with these other teams", when what they have done before 2024 has no bearing.

SMU may be better than a lot think.

Indiana is a different story. They've played a single decent team all year and got absolutely waxed. I'd be thrilled to draw them. I think we'd hold them to like 40 yards of offense just like OSU did.

 

[CaliVol2009]

SMU may be better than a lot think.

Indiana is a different story. They've played a single decent team all year and got absolutely waxed. I'd be thrilled to draw them. I think we'd hold them to like 40 yards of offense just like OSU did.

Yeah, I wanna play them, we will hammer and embarrass them.

 

[StickMan]

I agree, I think Georgia will end up as the #2 seed by winning the SECCG.

That's my prediction. In fact, thankfully I think it's very unlikely we'd play Georgia in the opening round. I think they either win the SECCG and get a 2 seed, or lose it and get ~ an 11 seed. I believe if we beat Vandy, we'll get an 8 or 9.

 

[Redleg68]

Assuming we beat Vandy we have to get out of that #8 spot. We need a team(s) ahead of us to lose so we at least move up one spot. That gets to host a 1st rd home game and not having to go to GA for a 1st rd and Oregon 2nd. Good chance of that happening to.

Need for USC to beat Notre Dame.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Certain seeds are basically a lock at this point.

1 Seed: Oregon or Ohio State
5 Seed: Ohio State or Oregon

2 Seed: Texas or Georgia

3 Seed: Miami or SMU

4 Seed: Boise St or Arizona St
12 Seed: Arizona St or Boise St

6-11 are the seeds with potential movement, but some of those are basically set unless there are big upsets.

6 Seed: Penn State
The committee has consistently ranked the Nittany Lions high despite poor performances against mediocre opponents like Minnesota. The only movement possible here depends on Texas and, to a lesser extent, Notre Dame. If Texas loses to A&M, Penn State would rise to a 3 ranking, but remain at the 6 seed. If Texas beats A&M but loses to Georgia in the SECCG, will they drop below Penn State, or will the committee not punish the Longhorns for the extra game? Georgia could move to number 3, Texas at 4, and Penn State could shift to 5, moving them down to the 7th seed. Notre Dame crushing USC has an outside shot to jump PSU.

7 Seed: Notre Dame is not likely to move in the last 2 weeks over Penn State unless they absolutely destroy USC. Would a dominating victory over a common opponent that Penn State squeaked by in OT put them ahead?

8 Seed: If Georgia wins the SECCG, they will secure the 2 Seed. If they lose, however, will they drop? How will the committee handle CCG losers? Do Texas & UGA swap places in the event Georgia takes the CCG? Or fall lower?

9 Seed: Tennessee needs an upset to occur to move up, as a victory over Vandy will not propel us over the seeds ahead of us. Outside shot we are bumped down a seed if Miami loses the ACCCG.

10 Seed: SMU or Miami will likely fall to this level if they lose the ACCCG. It is doubtful the CCG loser is left out in favor of a 3-loss SEC team when their 2nd loss occurs in the championship game. If Miami is the loser, there is a possibility that slot at the 9 seed, bumping the Vols down to 10.

11 Seed: Indiana is unlikely to rise further, and also unlikely to be jumped by a 3-loss SEC team. Clemson looms, however. Will a win over South Carolina push the Tigers to this spot as a 2-loss team?

My verdict is that a regular season loss by Texas to A&M is our best path to a home playoff game, pending Georgia also beats the Aggies. A 2-loss Texas with both being to UGA (and 1 in the SECCG) is unlikely to fall past us. Georgia losing in the SECCG is also unlikely to drop past us. Texas with 2 regular season losses and no good wins, however, could possibly fall behind the Vols. I don’t see any other viable upsets outside of that one.

Other than that, the committee will also use the results of the CCGs to shape the matchups how they want them. Rankings & seedings will be shifted with the only justification being the best games for TV.

 

[mackievol]

Clemson may block them out. Especially if Clemson wins thoroughly vs USC. Clemson would allow the CFP to not have heartburn justifying Bama

Clemson is not beating USC

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

Certain seeds are basically a lock at this point.

1 Seed: Oregon or Ohio State
5 Seed: Ohio State or Oregon

2 Seed: Texas or Georgia

3 Seed: Miami or SMU

4 Seed: Boise St or Arizona St
12 Seed: Arizona St or Boise St

6-11 are the seeds with potential movement, but some of those are basically set unless there are big upsets.

6 Seed: Penn State
The committee has consistently ranked the Nittany Lions high despite poor performances against mediocre opponents like Minnesota. The only movement possible here depends on Texas and, to a lesser extent, Notre Dame. If Texas loses to A&M, Penn State would rise to a 3 ranking, but remain at the 6 seed. If Texas beats A&M but loses to Georgia in the SECCG, will they drop below Penn State, or will the committee not punish the Longhorns for the extra game? Georgia could move to number 3, Texas at 4, and Penn State could shift to 5, moving them down to the 7th seed. Notre Dame crushing USC has an outside shot to jump PSU.

7 Seed: Notre Dame is not likely to move in the last 2 weeks over Penn State unless they absolutely destroy USC. Would a dominating victory over a common opponent that Penn State squeaked by in OT put them ahead?

8 Seed: If Georgia wins the SECCG, they will secure the 2 Seed. If they lose, however, will they drop? How will the committee handle CCG losers? Do Texas & UGA swap places in the event Georgia takes the CCG? Or fall lower?

9 Seed: Tennessee needs an upset to occur to move up, as a victory over Vandy will not propel us over the seeds ahead of us. Outside shot we are bumped down a seed if Miami loses the ACCCG.

10 Seed: SMU or Miami will likely fall to this level if they lose the ACCCG. It is doubtful the CCG loser is left out in favor of a 3-loss SEC team when their 2nd loss occurs in the championship game. If Miami is the loser, there is a possibility that slot at the 9 seed, bumping the Vols down to 10.

11 Seed: Indiana is unlikely to rise further, and also unlikely to be jumped by a 3-loss SEC team. Clemson looms, however. Will a win over South Carolina push the Tigers to this spot as a 2-loss team?

My verdict is that a regular season loss by Texas to A&M is our best path to a home playoff game, pending Georgia also beats the Aggies. A 2-loss Texas with both being to UGA (and 1 in the SECCG) is unlikely to fall past us. Georgia losing in the SECCG is also unlikely to drop past us. Texas with 2 regular season losses and no good wins, however, could possibly fall behind the Vols. I don’t see any other viable upsets outside of that one.

Other than that, the committee will also use the results of the CCGs to shape the matchups how they want them. Rankings & seedings will be shifted with the only justification being the best games for TV.

Great analysis! Prob need to throw Tulane as AAC Champ into the mix; they are at 17th with 9-2 Memphis and 10-1 Army on deck...Big12 at 16/18/19, so real chance they get left out if Tulane can get 2 more wins, and especially so if they are dominant

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Great analysis! Prob need to throw Tulane as AAC Champ into the mix; they are at 17th with 9-2 Memphis and 10-1 Army on deck...Big12 at 16/18/19, so real chance they get left out if Tulane can get 2 more wins, and especially so if they are dominant

That is a good point, but I feel the Big 12 champion still secures a spot unless things get REALLY crazy.

The Big 12 championship game participants will both be ranked in the CFP top 25, and the winner will have that feather in their cap. There are 5 current Big 12 teams ranked in the CFP:

Arizona State (16)
Iowa State (18)
BYU (19)
Kansas State (24)
Colorado (25)

The most likely game is Arizona St vs Iowa St or BYU, currently a 16 vs 18 or 19 matchup. The winner will be in front of Tulane (17).

It would be quite strange for the committee to leave out the conference tied for the 2nd-highest number of teams in their own rankings.

 

[deatojl]

Great analysis! Prob need to throw Tulane as AAC Champ into the mix; they are at 17th with 9-2 Memphis and 10-1 Army on deck...Big12 at 16/18/19, so real chance they get left out if Tulane can get 2 more wins, and especially so if they are dominant

I find this sudden notion that Tulane is a potential playoff team pretty interesting. Far and away, the best teams they have beaten are Louisiana and Navy. Also, they were manhandled by the same Oklahoma team that we handled, in a night game in Norman, the week before we played them. The same Oklahoma team that most have said all season was terrible and in no way should be considered an impressive win for us. Of course, that Oklahoma team has now dominated Alabama so I guess that changes the narrative.

 

[volfan102455]

As soon as strength of schedule was replaced by "strength of record" as a primary parameter, the SEC was in trouble. This was done to aid the Big 10, but it might get two G5 schools in, which I actually hope happens to show what a complete joke this thing is.

Totally agree - when it was 2 or 4 teams, strength of schedule was considered. Now it is "teams with least losses" to the top. Though I was surprised with the Indiana drop behind us and Georgia.

I think the committee understands that a playoff without at least 3 SEC schools would be considered a "complete joke" and the fallout noise would be significant and force some very heated discussions around the future of the playoffs.

Past the first round, these games are connected to bowl games that generally bring in a lot of revenue. Some of the matchups will not be that attractive.

 

[VolCalls]

I find this sudden notion that Tulane is a potential playoff team pretty interesting. Far and away, the best teams they have beaten are Louisiana and Navy. Also, they were manhandled by the same Oklahoma team that we handled, in a night game in Norman, the week before we played them. The same Oklahoma team that most have said all season was terrible and in no way should be considered an impressive win for us. Of course, that Oklahoma team has now dominated Alabama so I guess that changes the narrative.

Tulane lost 34-19 and was only down 5 early in the 4th quarter. We were manhandled by Georgia two weeks ago using that analysis.

 

[GreveHaller]

That's the joke of this playoff system. Yes, the Big 12 sucks, but so do the ACC and Big 10, as those two leagues have two legit teams each - if you can even call Miami and Clemson legit. Who would know given their schedules.

While the SEC are beating each others' brains out all year, it still has half the league with at least 8 wins and all but 3 bowl eligible. I would take any of those 8 teams (maybe not Missouri) against Indiana, Penn State, Notre Dame, and any ACC, Big 12 or G5 teams that will be in this thing.

The idea that Boise St., and SMU might be in a national championship playoff is beyond comical, and why this is not a serious deal. If this inane "committee" continues with this "strength of record" idiocy (which I'm convinced was conceived to make Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame appear better than they are), Sankey should take his ball and go home, saying that the SEC would have it's own playoff next year and crown a legitimate champion. Not going to happen, but I'd love it.

But…..everyone said a playoff, any playoff, would fix everything…..

 

[easttnbuck]

Certain seeds are basically a lock at this point.

1 Seed: Oregon or Ohio State
5 Seed: Ohio State or Oregon

2 Seed: Texas or Georgia

3 Seed: Miami or SMU

4 Seed: Boise St or Arizona St
12 Seed: Arizona St or Boise St

6-11 are the seeds with potential movement, but some of those are basically set unless there are big upsets.

6 Seed: Penn State
The committee has consistently ranked the Nittany Lions high despite poor performances against mediocre opponents like Minnesota. The only movement possible here depends on Texas and, to a lesser extent, Notre Dame. If Texas loses to A&M, Penn State would rise to a 3 ranking, but remain at the 6 seed. If Texas beats A&M but loses to Georgia in the SECCG, will they drop below Penn State, or will the committee not punish the Longhorns for the extra game? Georgia could move to number 3, Texas at 4, and Penn State could shift to 5, moving them down to the 7th seed. Notre Dame crushing USC has an outside shot to jump PSU.

7 Seed: Notre Dame is not likely to move in the last 2 weeks over Penn State unless they absolutely destroy USC. Would a dominating victory over a common opponent that Penn State squeaked by in OT put them ahead?

8 Seed: If Georgia wins the SECCG, they will secure the 2 Seed. If they lose, however, will they drop? How will the committee handle CCG losers? Do Texas & UGA swap places in the event Georgia takes the CCG? Or fall lower?

9 Seed: Tennessee needs an upset to occur to move up, as a victory over Vandy will not propel us over the seeds ahead of us. Outside shot we are bumped down a seed if Miami loses the ACCCG.

10 Seed: SMU or Miami will likely fall to this level if they lose the ACCCG. It is doubtful the CCG loser is left out in favor of a 3-loss SEC team when their 2nd loss occurs in the championship game. If Miami is the loser, there is a possibility that slot at the 9 seed, bumping the Vols down to 10.

11 Seed: Indiana is unlikely to rise further, and also unlikely to be jumped by a 3-loss SEC team. Clemson looms, however. Will a win over South Carolina push the Tigers to this spot as a 2-loss team?

My verdict is that a regular season loss by Texas to A&M is our best path to a home playoff game, pending Georgia also beats the Aggies. A 2-loss Texas with both being to UGA (and 1 in the SECCG) is unlikely to fall past us. Georgia losing in the SECCG is also unlikely to drop past us. Texas with 2 regular season losses and no good wins, however, could possibly fall behind the Vols. I don’t see any other viable upsets outside of that one.

Other than that, the committee will also use the results of the CCGs to shape the matchups how they want them. Rankings & seedings will be shifted with the only justification being the best games for TV.

I'd rather use be the ten seed than the 9 if 9 requires us to to Athens.

Happy valley in the winter isn't exciting either but Georgia is entirely too familiar with us and put us over their knee down there.

 

[hUTch2002]

Remember South Carolina 2022? Let’s beat Vandy first.

Nope, I recall no such thing.

 

[hUTch2002]

The outcomes that might get us into the #5 to #8 range of CFP slating are:

Notre Dame loses to USCw (possible)
Penn State loses to Maryland (unlikely)
Georgia loses to Ga Tech (very unlikely)

Let's hope for those.

The following weekend, the only thing that might help us is UGa losing to Texas (outside chance that drops them below us) or beating A&M (to keep A&M down). Otherwise, we pretty much want chalk in the conference championship games, so no underlings have cause to rise up past us.

Go Vols!

Crazy as it sounds, I think GT beating UGA is more likely than Maryland beating Penn State. Franklin has mastered beating the Big 10 weaklings. UGA is so inconsistent this year and Tech has played them tougher recently. Don’t get me wrong, neither UGA not Penn State will lose. I just think this year UGA is more likely. I do believe USC beats ND.

 

[hUTch2002]

That's the joke of this playoff system. Yes, the Big 12 sucks, but so do the ACC and Big 10, as those two leagues have two legit teams each - if you can even call Miami and Clemson legit. Who would know given their schedules.

While the SEC are beating each others' brains out all year, it still has half the league with at least 8 wins and all but 3 bowl eligible. I would take any of those 8 teams (maybe not Missouri) against Indiana, Penn State, Notre Dame, and any ACC, Big 12 or G5 teams that will be in this thing.

The idea that Boise St., and SMU might be in a national championship playoff is beyond comical, and why this is not a serious deal. If this inane "committee" continues with this "strength of record" idiocy (which I'm convinced was conceived to make Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame appear better than they are), Sankey should take his ball and go home, saying that the SEC would have it's own playoff next year and crown a legitimate champion. Not going to happen, but I'd love it.

I’m with you on the SOR BS. That’s a way to try and level the field for teams with worse SOS.