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2013-14 College Basketball Preview - Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN
Tennessee Volunteers
2012-13: 20-13 (11-7 SEC)
In-conference offense: 1.05 points per possession (fifth)
In-conference defense: 1.02 points allowed per possession (11th)
Tennessee under Cuonzo Martin is achieving a degree of success on the boards that can only be termed striking. At a time when most "good rebounding" teams specialize on the defensive glass alone (and a few squads that aren't even recognized as being good at rebounding are actually quite successful on the offensive boards), the Volunteers comprise a rare exception to the rebounding rule. Martin's men are simply good at getting rebounds, period. Offensive, defensive, doesn't matter.
Projected starting lineup
F Jarnell Stokes Jr.
F Jeronne Maymon Sr.
G Jordan McRae Sr.
G Josh Richardson Jr.
G Antonio Barton Sr.
Last season in SEC play, Tennessee ranked No. 1 in the league on the offensive glass, and No. 3 (behind Missouri and Vanderbilt) on the defensive boards. In 2013-14, assuming Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon get to play their first full season together, the Vols may do better still.
The challenge now is for UT to translate all those boards into better results against major-conference opponents.
...
In the nonconference season, Tennessee suffered losses to Oklahoma State, Georgetown and Virginia. Under Martin, UT is 22-15 against the SEC but 1-5 against non-SEC major-conference opponents.
The players trying to improve that record will be, for the most part, familiar faces. Skylar McBee and Kenny Hall graduated. Then in May, scoring point guard Trae Golden left abruptly, triggering a swirl of rumors that ranged from the usual to the bizarre. The party line now is that the team will be better off without him, and Tennessee is indeed on track to have a very good season without Golden (who subsequently transferred to Georgia Tech). But observers have been a little too quick to assume that Memphis transfer Antonio Barton will automatically be an upgrade. Put it this way: If Barton repeats Golden's junior-year numbers exactly (30 minutes a game, 107 offensive rating, 25 percent possession usage) people will rave about the newcomer, and rightly so.
Four years ago, Barton was a point guard at Notre Dame Prep in Fitchburg, Mass. But in accompanying his brother, Will Barton (11 months older than Antonio), to Memphis, Antonio Barton found himself in the same recruiting class as Joe Jackson. Consequently, Barton's minutes over three seasons for the Tigers came mostly off the ball and/or off the bench. That will change this season, as Barton was signed in May to replace Golden. The curious alchemy that occasionally surrounds transfer announcements meant that Barton was hailed in some precincts as a borderline savior when he chose the Vols. Fortunately for Tennessee, however, the player who averaged six points a game last season for an NCAA tournament No. 6 seed doesn't have to be a savior -- he has to be merely serviceable. Barton is a career 42 percent 3-point shooter, though on a low volume of attempts.
One of Barton's most essential tasks will be getting Jordan McRae his touches. McRae makes this offense better by (1) getting to the line and knocking down the freebies and (2) achieving accuracy from the field that's only a hair above average but is extended across a huge number of possessions and minutes. In the truest sense of the term, McRae is a workhorse, but the shooting guard ended his junior campaign on a somewhat unsettling note. Never mind the minuscule foul rate for the season as a whole -- McRae fouled out in three of the Vols' last six games, most crucially in the 58-48 SEC quarterfinal loss to Alabama in which UT was fighting for its NCAA tournament life. McRae scored nine points that afternoon on 3-of-13 shooting. Stay thirsty for redemption, my friend.
When McRae needs a breather, we'll see freshman Robert Hubbs, who could log a high number of minutes this season as part of a rotation that will be more talented than deep. A shooting guard from Newbern, Tenn., Hubbs is a top-30 prospect touted for his potential as a featured scorer. And if for whatever reason Barton doesn't work out at point guard, the fallback will be freshman Darius Thompson, who averaged 16 points and six assists per game last season at Blackman High in Murfreesboro, Tenn. Thompson and Hubbs were the two runners-up in the Tennessee Mr. Basketball balloting to Nick King, now a freshman at Memphis.
Martin's best on-ball defender is Josh Richardson, who often guards the opponent's most dangerous perimeter scorer regardless of that player's position. As a sophomore wing he learned to pick his spots on offense and became very effective inside the arc within a limited role. Martin has indicated that performance will earn Richardson more touches as a junior.
Maymon missed last season with a knee injury and now says he's not as "explosive" as he was before surgery. (Martin disagrees: "Looks like the same old Jeronne to me.") In 2011-12, he made 32 starts, and if that season is any indication, Maymon in 2013-14 will be a tremendous rebounder at both ends as well as a highly effective source of points in the paint while the clock's running. Points with the clock stopped may be a different story. Maymon will draw a high number of fouls and he's a career 61 percent shooter at the line, though he did connect on a slightly more respectable 66 percent as a junior. Lastly, to borrow a line from Indiana Jones, Maymon is perhaps the lowest-mileage senior star in Division I. Despite using up three seasons of eligibility, he's actually appeared in just 56 games (including nine as a freshman at Marquette in 2009-10). Jeronne, we hardly knew ye.
In Maymon's absence last season it was left to Stokes to compete with Notre Dame's Jack Cooley for the title of best offensive rebounder in major-conference hoops. In the end, Cooley won in a photo finish over his rival in Knoxville (who hauled in 17.3 percent of Tennessee's misses during his minutes), but Martin's star may get to cry all the way to the proverbial bank: Stokes is currently projected as a late first-round pick in the 2014 NBA draft. Among other things, the next level likes his youth: Stokes won't turn 20 until January. He's very good on the defensive boards as well, but Stokes offsets too much of his offensive-glass monstrosity by drawing six fouls per 40 minutes and shooting just 57 percent at the line.
For a team that's missed the last two NCAA tournaments, Tennessee enters the season in a strong position. This may turn out to be the SEC's best starting five not coached by John Calipari, and in particular, the Volunteers project to be downright ridiculous on the offensive glass. On defense this will again be a unit that doesn't force a high or even moderate number of turnovers, and that (in tandem with the fact that UT won't block or alter many shots) will limit how effective the Vols can be on that side of the ball. But an average defense won't prevent an above-average offense from leading Tennessee back to the NCAA tournament, possibly as a No. 4 seed or higher.
Projected 2013-14 conference finish: third
