Tennessee ranked 11th in preseason BCS

#1
allvol

allvol

Eternally Optimistic
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Aug 10, 2004
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#1
Well, Jerry Palm over at collegebcs.com has calculated the BCS using the new formula and the available rankings. Currently, only 1 computer has posted rankings, so it is used in the calculation as the computer average.

As y'all have probably read, the BCS formula has changed this season. To try and simplify the explanation of how it works... the Coaches' poll is worth 1/3, the AP poll is worth 1/3, and the avg of computers minus the hi and low is worth 1/3. The numbers used in the combined calculation are based upon percentage of votes received (not ranking) out of the maximum amount of votes possible. Therefore, this season, the higher the BCS point rating is better.


Here are the current rankings [BCS Points in ( )]:

1Southern Cal 0.6479
2 LSU 0.6365
3 Oklahoma 0.6184
4 Miami-Florida 0.5657
5 Georgia 0.5169 :flush:
6 Ohio State 0.5051
7 Michigan 0.4999
8 Florida St 0.4573
9 Texas 0.4109
10 Iowa 0.3537
11 Tennessee 0.2774 :cheer:
12 Miami-Ohio 0.2713
13 Clemson 0.2699
14 Boise St 0.2616
15 Kansas St 0.2330
16 Florida 0.2310 :bottom:
17 Washington St 0.2055
18 Utah 0.2024
19 West Virginia 0.1495
20 Maryland 0.1368
21 Mississippi 0.1349
22 TCU 0.1309
23 California 0.1237
24 Missouri 0.1097
25 Minnesota 0.1075
26 Auburn 0.1034 :moon2:
27 Virginia 0.0990
28 Purdue 0.0942
29 Wisconsin 0.0542
30 Nebraska 0.0463
31 Oregon 0.0383
32 Bowling Green 0.0315
33 Oregon St 0.0221
34 North Carolina St 0.0184
35 Louisville 0.0170
36 Virginia Tech 0.0136
37 Oklahoma St 0.0090
38 Toledo 0.0072
39 Memphis 0.0059
40 Georgia Tech 0.0055
40 Notre Dame 0.0055
42 BYU 0.0046
43 Fresno St 0.0037
44 Michigan St 0.0035
45 Pittsburgh 0.0031
46 Marshall 0.0028
47 Arkansas 0.0026
47 Alabama 0.0026 :bammer:
49 Boston College 0.0022
49 Northern Ill 0.0022
51 San Diego St 0.0017
52 UCLA 0.0015
52 Colorado St 0.0015
54 Texas Tech 0.0013
55 Hawaii 0.0011
55 Texas A&M 0.0011
57 Southern Miss 0.0009
58 Penn State 0.0004
59 Washington 0.0002
59 Arizona St 0.0002
59 Connecticut 0.0002
59 New Mexico 0.0002
59 Air Force 0.0002
59 Arizona 0.0002
 
#2
#2
Is it a law that no matter what year it is, you have to put Texas in your top ten even though you know that they are going to take the gas pipe 2 or 3 times every year? :yuck:
 
#3
#3
Wow 11th, I can deal with that!!!!! Now hopefully we can work our way up!!!! :good:
 
#4
#4
1Southern Cal 0.6479
2 LSU 0.6365
3 Oklahoma 0.6184
4 Miami-Florida 0.5657
5 Georgia 0.5169
6 Ohio State 0.5051
7 Michigan 0.4999
8 Florida St 0.4573
9 Texas 0.4109
10 Iowa 0.3537

Does anyone know if the AP poll is out yet?

Texas - overrated again

Iowa - Why are they so high up?
 
#5
#5
The Coaches' and Billingsley are the only ones who have released preseason rankings. The Associated Press will release its preseason poll August 14th. Sagarin also does a preseason ranking. Colley's rankings will appear beginning with the first game. Anderson-Hester will not release a ranking until at least October. Wolfe doesn't release his until the week of the first official release, which is October 18th this year. No one is sure what Massey will do.
 
#7
#7
11 sounds good to me too, BigDaddyCanes! Not too high to be humiliated in the event of a (shudder) poor season, but not to low to be disrespected either!!


GO VOLS!!
 
#8
#8
I've done a bit of calculating on my own :question: and I've come up with the following BCS rankings with the new formula based upon 2004 preseason Coaches' and Billingsley; Final 2003 Anderson-Hester, Colley Matrix, Massey, and Sagarin; and the prebowl 2003 Wolfe:

Rank School BCS
1 Southern Cal 0.978
2 LSU 0.960
3 Oklahoma 0.914
4 Miami-Florida 0.808
5 Georgia 0.808
6 Ohio State 0.795
7 Michigan 0.746
8 Florida St 0.696
9 Texas 0.586
10 Iowa 0.571
11 Miami-Ohio 0.476
12 Tennessee 0.447
13 Kansas St 0.411
14 Washington St 0.390
15 Boise St 0.337
16 Maryland 0.319
17 Mississippi 0.302
18 Utah 0.276
19 Florida 0.248
20 Clemson 0.227
21 Purdue 0.215
22 Nebraska 0.200
23 West Virginia 0.150
24 Minnesota 0.130
25 California 0.124
26 Auburn 0.112
27 Missouri 0.110
28 Bowling Green 0.107
29 Virginia 0.106
30 TCU 0.103
31 Arkansas 0.058
32 Wisconsin 0.054
33 Oregon 0.038
34 Oklahoma St 0.031
35 Oregon St 0.024
36 North Carolina St 0.020
37 Louisville 0.017
38 Virginia Tech 0.014
39 Northern Ill 0.008
40 Toledo 0.007
40 Memphis 0.006
42 Notre Dame 0.005
43 Georgia Tech 0.005
44 BYU 0.005
45 Pittsburgh 0.004
46 Fresno St 0.004
47 Michigan St 0.003
47 Marshall 0.003
49 Alabama 0.003
49 Boston College 0.002
51 San Diego St 0.002
52 UCLA 0.002
52 Colorado St 0.002
54 Texas Tech 0.001
55 Hawaii 0.001
55 Texas A&M 0.001
57 Southern Miss 0.001
58 Connecticut 0.001
 
#9
#9
I don't know whether to be impressed, or woryy that you have way too much time on your hands.

For now I'll stick with impressed. :D
 
#10
#10
Originally posted by LadyinOrange@Aug 11, 2004 9:39 PM
11 sounds good to me too, BigDaddyCanes! Not too high to be humiliated in the event of a (shudder) poor season, but not to low to be disrespected either!!


GO VOLS!!
Click to expand...

I agree ladyinOrange. My boys are at 4 and I'm a little nervous. Let's hope that Broc Berlin can live up to all the Florida hype.
 
#11
#11
BDC, I think your boys will do fine. With your receivers growing up a little, Berlin should have better production.
 
#12
#12
I can live with 11. Thanks for the post allvol.
 
#13
#13
considering that most computer polls, if released today, would reflect the final rankings from last season, I think the 10-15 range is where the Vols would start if the BCS poll were released from the beginning of the season.

:bs: BS or BCS: The formula has been greatly simplified this season. (no strength of schedule, no diminishing returns factor, no quality win factors, etc.) I like math and usually build my own spreadsheet for the BCS each season. This season was quite easy, taking less than an half-hour to set up and enter the data. Alot of the data can be cut and pasted from websites.

:snoring: because the AP and Coaches' poll makes up 2/3 of the formula now... and 3 of the 6 computers will post rankings starting from the beginning of the season... 2 computers are dropped from the computer average (hi and lo).... that means that the BCS rankings can be calculated to within 91.6% of the total right from the beginning of the season. Jerry Palm at collegebcs.com has emulated some of the computer rankings very accurately, and he may also post unofficial number for 1 or more of them... making the BCS almost 99.9% accurate from the beginning of the season.

:compute: i like looking at the numbers, etc. but my position has always been that the NC should be won on the field. but thats a debate for another thread. :idea: imho, scap the bcs or use the calculation as a reference in selecting a 16-team field for a playoff.

:twocents: by adding an additional game and pushing the bowl season further into January, the college presidents are starting lose credibility in the argument about extending the season, etc. and btw, the div I-AA, div II, div III, NAIA, and JUCO don't have any problems with having a playoff system.
 
#14
#14
Originally posted by allvol@Aug 13, 2004 11:56 AM
and btw, the div I-AA, div II, div III, NAIA, and JUCO don't have any problems with having a playoff system.
Click to expand...

None of the other divisions would have playoffs either if they had a multimillion dollar bowl system in place that pumped money into their schools. People need to forget the expanded playoff pipe dream. Nothing more than a 1 or 2 game deal will ever be used as long as the bowls are around. :twocents:
 
#15
#15
When the NCAA figures out a way to make more money with a playoff than the bowls, we will get a playoff.
 
#16
#16
I recalculated the BCS now that the AP preseason poll is out:

2004 Preseason: AP, Coaches, Billingsley.
2003: Anderson-Hester, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe.


1 Southern Cal 0.977
2 LSU 0.933
3 Oklahoma 0.925
4 :machinegun: Georgia 0.854
5 Miami-Florida 0.800
6 Florida St 0.775
7 Michigan 0.734
8 Ohio State 0.711
9 Texas 0.658
10 Iowa 0.450
11 :number1: Tennessee 0.439
12 Kansas St 0.396
13 :gun: Florida 0.386
14 West Virginia 0.342
15 Clemson 0.311
16 Utah 0.304
17 Miami-Ohio 0.285
18 California 0.276
19 Maryland 0.267
20 Virginia 0.228
21 :moon2: Auburn 0.221
22 Missouri 0.217
23 Boise St 0.215
24 Washington St 0.177
25 Purdue 0.139
26 Mississippi 0.129
27 Wisconsin 0.121
28 Nebraska 0.116
29 TCU 0.086
30 Minnesota 0.083
31 Oregon 0.079
32 Bowling Green 0.069
33 Arkansas 0.043
34 Louisville 0.043
35 North Carolina St 0.034
36 Oregon St 0.028
37 Memphis 0.017
38 Virginia Tech 0.015
39 Toledo 0.014
40 Oklahoma St 0.012
40 Georgia Tech 0.006
42 Fresno St 0.006
43 Notre Dame 0.006
44 :flush: Alabama 0.005
45 BYU 0.005
46 Marshall 0.004
47 Boston College 0.004
47 Northern Ill 0.004
49 Michigan St 0.003
49 Hawaii 0.003
51 Pittsburgh 0.003
52 Texas Tech 0.003
52 Southern Miss 0.002
54 San Diego St 0.002
55 Texas A&M 0.002
55 UCLA 0.002
57 Colorado St 0.002
58 Penn State 0.001
 
#19
#19
Every year it seems a team in the #15 around #10-#15 wins it all and Iowa fits it perfectly with a great D
 
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