THE DECLINE

#1
Liper

Liper

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
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#1
There have been recent statement regarding the SEC's big six:

1 Georgia
2 Florida
3 Tennessee
4 Alabama
5 Auburn
6 LSU

Tennessee's record against the big six since 1998 is 11-16.

Tennessee's bowl record since 1998 is 2-4.

It would take some doing, but I'd be interested in seeing his record against ranked teams and teams in the top 10 since 1998.

I'd also like to see the margin of defeat average against ranked teams since 1998.

 
#2
#2
against the top 10 his record is horrible, it was on one of the other posts. 11-16 pretty much tells me that we have been declining over those years. that is the difference the rest of the sec is getting better and we are not.
 
#5
#5
Originally posted by vol_freak@Oct 24, 2005 7:46 PM
take out Bama and see how it looks.
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Freakness,

Your wish is my command...

The aforementioned record with BAMA removed from consideration takes said record from 11-16 to 6-14. For all of us math wizards, that means we are winning less than 1/3 of the games against the conference's top half. Frankly, that sucks - that is, if you consider yourself a top tier team; and Fulmer makes the case that we are.

BAMA has been good and bad during that period. They won the SEC in 99, were pretty good in 02, and look pretty good this year in 05. However, the other 4 years they were pretty darn bad. Of the three years they were decent, we lost two of them.

Can someone please post our record since '98 against:

-ranked
-top 10

Thanks,

Bearer of bad news
"Shine the Light of Truth Productions"
 
#6
#6
That is gonna leave a mark. :punch_bag: :punch_bag: :punch_bag:

Never thought I would be thankful for Bammers.
 
#7
#7
Originally posted by Liper@Oct 24, 2005 9:04 PM
Freakness,

Your wish is my command...

The aforementioned record with BAMA removed from consideration takes said record from 11-16 to 6-14.  For all of us math wizards, that means we are winning less than 1/3 of the games against the conference's top half.  Frankly, that sucks - that is, if you consider yourself a top tier team; and Fulmer makes the case that we are.

BAMA has been good and bad during that period.  They won the SEC in 99, were pretty good in 02, and look pretty good this year in 05.  However, the other 4 years they were pretty darn bad.  Of the three years they were decent, we lost two of them.

Can someone please post our record since '98 against:

-ranked
-top 10

Thanks,

Bearer of bad news
"Shine the Light of Truth Productions"
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You might PM allvol. He is that stat guy and might have that information.
 
#9
#9
Originally posted by checkerboard_charly@Oct 24, 2005 9:16 PM
wow. the truth is in the numbers.

this is bad. i guess most of Fulmer's success has to be credited to Peyton Manning. right?
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I wouldn't go that far. But I think it is fair to say that Peyton took TN pretty far, with the highest benefit being the overall exposure to the program. I once looked at the winning percentage with Peyton v. without. It wasn't pretty.

I don't think the talent he had was any better than the talent since then. But the consistent winning was better with him. But there aren't many Manning's out there. And yes, I think he did make Fulmer and Cut look better than they are at times.
 
#10
#10
Originally posted by Liper@Oct 24, 2005 6:45 PM
There have been recent statement regarding the SEC's big six:

1 Georgia
2 Florida
3 Tennessee
4 Alabama
5 Auburn
6 LSU

Tennessee's record against the big six since 1998 is 11-16.

Tennessee's bowl record since 1998 is 2-4.

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It takes about 7 years, two full recruiting classes, be4 a NC Coach like Fulmer begins to feel the heat. 1998 + 7 = now.

 
#11
#11
Originally posted by wilburnVol@Oct 25, 2005 1:22 AM
It takes about 7 years, two full recruiting classes, be4 a NC Coach like Fulmer begins to feel the heat. 1998 + 7 = now.
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WOW! How is Spurrier looking after that one. These are my hours, go to bed.
 
#15
#15
Fulmer vs Top 10:
1992-1997 vs Top 10 = 3-7-1
1998 vs Top 10 = 4-0
1999-2004 vs Top 10 = 5-8
2005 vs Top 10 = 1-3

Fulmer vs Ranked opponents:
1992
#14 Georgia W,34-31
#4 Florida W,31-14
#16 Boston College W,38-23

1993
#22 Georgia W,38-6
#9 Florida L,41-34
#2 Alabama T,17-17
#13 Louisville W,45-10
#13 Penn St L,31-13

1994
#14 UCLA L,25-23
#23 Georgia W,41-23
#1 Florida L,31-0
#17 Washington St W,10-9
#10 Alabama L,17-13
#17 Va Tech W,45-23

1995
#4 Florida L,62-37
#12 Alabama W,41-14
#4 Ohio St W,20-14

1996
#4 Florida L, 35-29
#7 Alabama W,20-13
#11 Northwestern W,48-28

1997
#2 Florida L,33-20
#13 Georgia W,38-13
#24 Southern Miss W,44-20
#11 Auburn W,30-29
#2 Nebraska L,42-17

1998
#17 Syracuse W,34-33
#2 Florida W,20-17
#7 Georgia W,22-3
#10 Arkansas W,28-24
#23 Miss State W,24-14
#2 Florida State W,23-16

1999
#4 Florida L,23-21
#10 Georgia W,37-20
#10 Alabama W,21-7
#24 Notre Dame W,38-14
#3 Nebraska L,31-21

2000
#22 Southern Miss W,19-16
#6 Florida L,27-21
#19 Georgia L,21-10
#17 South Carolina W,17-14
#11 Kansas State L,35-21

2001
#14 LSU W,26-18
#12 South Carolina W,17-10
#2 Florida W,34-32
#21 LSU L,31-20
#17 Michigan W,45-17

2002
#10 Florida L,30-13
#6 Georgia L,18-13
#19 Alabama L,34-14
#1 Miami L,26-3
#20 Maryland L,30-3

2003
#17 Florida W,24-10
#8 Georgia L,41-14
#6 Miami W,10-6

2004
#11 Florida W,30-28
#8 Auburn L,34-10
#3 Georgia W,19-14
#3 Auburn L,28-38
#22 Texas A&M W,38-7



 
#16
#16
:bow: We're not worthy, we're not worthy!!!

Notice, also, that we have lost 6 straight AT HOME to top-10 teams. Going backwards: Georgia 2005, Auburn 2004, Georgia 2003, Miami and Florida 2002, Florida 2000

That REALLY hurts.
 
#17
#17
Yes, but also note that Fulmer has more wins against top 10 opponents in the 6 years after 1998 then he did before.

Fulmer's worst season was 2002 when the Vols lost all 5 games to top 25 teams.

What hurts with the home losses is that they are coming mainly to Georgia and Florida. #1 Miami was a loss too. And the Vols may as well have been playing #1 when they hosted undefeated Auburn last season.

However, Fulmer is now winning at least 50% against Florida.... but he has started a trend of losing to Georgia since Richt became coach. For a team that Fulmer dominated through the '90s, I think its become tough for Vols fans to stomach the continual losses to Georgia. However, the Georgia program is much better now than it was during the '90s.

As the Georgia program has risen to almost the level of where Florida was in the '90s.... Florida has dropped almost down to what UGA was in the '90s.... and the Vols are not beating Florida every season like they did UGA in the '90s.

I really think the quality of the Vols schedule is much more difficult now than it was prior to 1998. 1998 was special because the Vols DID win over 6 top 25 teams, 4 of which were in the top 10. However, the Vols have never played 5 top 10 teams in one season, much less having to play 4 of them on the road.
 
#18
#18
Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 8:29 AM
Fulmer vs Top 10:
1992-1997 vs Top 10 = 3-7-1
1998 vs Top 10 = 4-0
1999-2004 vs Top 10 = 5-8
2005 vs Top 10 = 1-3
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Thanks, AllVol. That is what I was looking for. I noticed that Fulmer's record against top 10 is basically terrible during the entire period except 1998.

I'm going to do some digging on this and see what comes up.

Also, I confirmed via the UT website that TN has had the most players drafted since 1994 of any school in the country.
 
#19
#19
To play devils advocate, The Vols have been more competitive during my 49 years with Fulmer as head-coach than anyone that came before him.

I spent about 4 hours at a tailgate in Tuscalooser Saturday and met some people close to the football program that said some things that turned my head.

From a very close insider, the offense is not a product of CRS, but of the anchor held out by CPF. A comment that..."if CPF allowed CRS to run the offense as he allows CJC to run the defense, we'd see a totally different team on the field." I admit to being surprised.

I'll also add that every parent of a player that I talked to thinks Fulmer walks on water.
 
#20
#20
Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 9:20 AM
Thanks, AllVol.  That is what I was looking for.  I noticed that Fulmer's record against top 10 is basically terrible during the entire period except 1998.

I'm going to do some digging on this and see what comes up.

Also, I confirmed via the UT website that TN has had the most players drafted since 1994 of any school in the country.
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check and see how many the Vols have had drafted the last 3 years compared to the years before that. Also note the rapid decline in 1st or 2nd round draft selections. the proof is in the draft status of players... not their recruiting status.

Houston, Davis and Tinsley were 3 of the most coveted backs out of high school. Everyone thought they would be able to replace Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry and Travis Stephens. However, neither Houston, Davis nor Tinsley made the NFL cuts.
 
#21
#21
Originally posted by BHAMVOLFAN@Oct 25, 2005 9:38 AM
To play devils advocate, The Vols have been more competitive during my 49 years with Fulmer as head-coach than anyone that came before him. 

I spent about 4 hours at a tailgate in Tuscalooser Saturday and met some people close to the football program that said some things that turned my head.

From a very close insider, the offense is not a product of CRS, but of the anchor held out by CPF.  A comment that..."if CPF allowed CRS to run the offense as he allows CJC to run the defense, we'd see a totally different team on the field."  I admit to being surprised.

I'll also add that every parent of a player that I talked to thinks Fulmer walks on water.
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It evident by the expectations of fans to compete for a national title every season that Fulmer has elevated the program back to where it was in the early 1950s. Prior to 1998, the fans were overjoyed to just get to the SECCG or a good bowl game. Now if the Vols lose one game... its doom and gloom.
 
#22
#22
Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 9:38 AM
check and see how many the Vols have had drafted the last 3 years compared to the years before that.  Also note the rapid decline in 1st or 2nd round draft selections.  the proof is in the draft status of players... not their recruiting status.

Houston, Davis and Tinsley were 3 of the most coveted backs out of high school.  Everyone thought they would be able to replace Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry and Travis Stephens.  However, neither Houston, Davis nor Tinsley made the NFL cuts.
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We had the most players of any school drafted after the 2000 season. We had three first round draft choices after the 2001 season. We'll have another 2-4 first round draft choices this year (depending on Allen, but he IS a 1st round talent). We had a lot of players off of the 2003 drafted as well, even though the majority of the talent were underclassmen.

I am not one of these "but he was a 5-star recruit" morons. I used to follow recruiting quite closely and understand how it works. I am, as you are, more interested in how good those players turn out to be.

BTW, Pat Washington and Fulmer have completely indicted themselves with the WRs. Washington said that Hannon's problem is route running. Huh? He is a 5th year senior. Does Washington not realize what that means? Fulmer said the WRs are not giving enough effort and that their routes are not sharp enough or consistent enough. THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS PROPOSITION. CEDRIC WILSON SAID AS MUCH!

 
#23
#23
Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 9:42 AM
It evident by the expectations of fans to compete for a national title every season that Fulmer has elevated the program back to where it was in the early 1950s.  Prior to 1998, the fans were overjoyed to just get to the SECCG or a good bowl game.  Now if the Vols lose one game... its doom and gloom.
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I don't think anyone expects to compete for national title every year. I hear a lot of defenders assert this, but I never hear it said by anyone other than them. This is a straw man argument.

Losing back to back peach bowls is what we bitch about. Losing five out of six to UGA is what we bitch about. One top 10 finish since 1998 is what we bitch about. No BCS Bowl wins since 1998 is what we bitch about. No where in that series of gripes is anything about a national championship.

I think what we expect is to be in the mix of teams on a consistent basis for the SEC and the top tier of teams nationally. We have top 5 talent, we ought to produce some better teams. NC's are rare for anyone. But being in the group is not unreasonable. However, when you do have some rare talent, you need to take care of business.
 
#24
#24
Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 10:52 AM
We had the most players of any school drafted after the 2000 season.  We had three first round draft choices after the 2001 season.  We'll have another 2-4 first round draft choices this year (depending on Allen, but he IS a 1st round talent).  We had a lot of players off of the 2003 drafted as well, even though the majority of the talent were underclassmen.

I am not one of these "but he was a 5-star recruit" morons.  I used to follow recruiting quite closely and understand how it works.  I am, as you are, more interested in how good those players turn out to be.

BTW, Pat Washington and Fulmer have completely indicted themselves with the WRs.  Washington said that Hannon's problem is route running.  Huh?  He is a 5th year senior.  Does Washington not realize what that means?  Fulmer said the WRs are not giving enough effort and that their routes are not sharp enough or consistent enough.  THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS PROPOSITION.  CEDRIC WILSON SAID AS MUCH!
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Fulmer stated that either Hannon or Bret Smith, I think it was Smith has two dislocated fingers but it has not affected his performance!
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#25
#25
To have an accurate comparison, we also need to look at how the other top SEC teams have faired against each other and against the top 10.

In other words, very few (if any) teams likely have stellar records against the top 10 (since that changes every year) over the 7 or 8 years in the Fulmer analysis (my assumption - perhaps someone with data can prove otherwise).

From my fuzzy memory I would guess the following teams record vs. the top 10 and top of SEC is not all that great either since 1998.

Bama (obviously since they've had losing seasons)
LSU
Florida (3 - 5 loss seasons)
Auburn
Georgia (probably the best of the bunch but not sure)
 
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