The Euro

#1
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WA_Vol

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#1
Was listening to a radio show I like, Motley Fool Money, they were talking about the Euro. Most of them, felt the Euro wont last another 5 years. I thought it was interesting, might help the declining dollar a little, if they did stop using.

From what I've read, Greece needs to devalue their currency, but they can't because they are tied to the Euro, this is what is creating a problem with using the Euro. Anybody doing any currency trading here? Is it be time to start betting against the Euro.?
 
#2
#2
oklavol said:
Was listening to a radio show I like, Motley Fool Money, they were talking about the Euro. Most of them, felt the Euro wont last another 5 years. I thought it was interesting, might help the declining dollar a little, if they did stop using.

From what I've read, Greece needs to devalue their currency, but they can't because they are tied to the Euro, this is what is creating a problem with using the Euro. Anybody doing any currency trading here? Is it be time to start betting against the Euro.?
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late January 2013 would be a good starting point, granted, that assumes an administration that wants a strong dollar is elected
 
#4
#4
From The Economist, The future of the euro: Don't do it | The Economist

The rock and the hard place

Financial history is littered with events that turned from the unthinkable to the inevitable with breathtaking speed: Britain left the gold standard in 1931, Argentina abandoned its dollar peg in January 2002. But a collapse of the euro would bring with it unprecedented technical, economic and political costs (see article).

A break-up might happen in one of two ways. One or more weak members (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, perhaps Spain) might leave, presumably to devalue their new currency. Or a fed-up Germany, possibly joined by the Netherlands and Austria, could decide to junk the euro and restore the D-mark, which would then appreciate.

In either case, the costs would be enormous. For a start, the technical difficulties of reintroducing a national currency, reprogramming computers and vending machines, minting coins and printing notes are huge (three years’ preparation was needed for the euro). Any hint that a weak country was about to leave would lead to runs on deposits, further weakening troubled banks. That would result in capital controls and perhaps limits on bank withdrawals, which in turn would strangle commerce. Leavers would be cut off from foreign finance, perhaps for years, further starving their economies of funds.
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#5
#5
That is why the Greek politicians are so feckless. If they just stare down Germany, the Germans will blink and restructure the loans.

There doesn't have to be a devaluation; the loans could be restructured with some short-term pain for Germany, but long term value and good will to the Euro as a whole.

The Germans, lest we forget, were bailed out, substantially on OUR dime, quite recently too. They have been the century's biggest debt squelchers as well. This is neoliberal tomfoolery with an emphasis on fool. The Greeks on the street are absolutely right; stand firm and make Germany behave like a true capitalist nation.
 
#6
#6
utgibbs said:
That is why the Greek politicians are so feckless. If they just stare down Germany, the Germans will blink and restructure the loans.

There doesn't have to be a devaluation; the loans could be restructured with some short-term pain for Germany, but long term value and good will to the Euro as a whole.

The Germans, lest we forget, were bailed out, substantially on OUR dime, quite recently too. They have been the century's biggest debt squelchers as well. This is neoliberal tomfoolery with an emphasis on fool. The Greeks on the street are absolutely right; stand firm and make Germany behave like a true capitalist nation.
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so the German taxpayer should be forced to bear the burden of the failure of Greece's experiment with socialism?
 
#8
#8
MG1968 said:
so the German taxpayer should be forced to bear the burden of the failure of Greece's experiment with socialism?
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It's hardly an experiment or a failure. The Greek politicians are not selling off the family silver because they have failed - on the contrary - the Capitalists want to buy them because they are so successful.

That's up to the German taxpayer. The Greek taxpayer is clear and unambiguous on the issue. The German banks could go under as Capitalism demands for making bad loans and / or for foolishly not restructuring the loans.
 
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#9
#9
utgibbs said:
It's hardly an experiment or a failure. The Greek politicians are not selling off the family silver because they have failed - on the contrary - the Capitalists want to buy them because they are so successful.

That's up to the German taxpayer. The Greek taxpayer is clear and unambiguous on the issue. The German banks could go under as Capitalism demands for making bad loans and / or for foolishly not restructuring the loans.
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:eek:lol:
 
#10
#10
utgibbs said:
It's hardly an experiment or a failure. The Greek politicians are not selling off the family silver because they have failed - on the contrary - the Capitalists want to buy them because they are so successful.

That's up to the German taxpayer. The Greek taxpayer is clear and unambiguous on the issue. The German banks could go under as Capitalism demands for making bad loans and / or for foolishly not restructuring the loans.
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Of all the delusional blabber you puke onto this board, this might be the winner.
 
#11
#11
utgibbs said:
It's hardly an experiment or a failure. The Greek politicians are not selling off the family silver because they have failed - on the contrary - the Capitalists want to buy them because they are so successful.

That's up to the German taxpayer. The Greek taxpayer is clear and unambiguous on the issue. The German banks could go under as Capitalism demands for making bad loans and / or for foolishly not restructuring the loans.
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Otherworldly stupid. Lay the blame on the lender for lending money and expecting borrower to comply with terms he signed for as opposed to the utter idiocy on the part of the Greeks that led to the default.

This is how you reconcile some of the unfathomably lost crap you say around here. Nevermind that free cheese is a self defeating program in the long haul, just blame it on the guys advocating a program that can perpetuate itself and doesn't reward sorriness or ineptitude.
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#12
#12
BigPapaVol said:
Otherworldly stupid. Lay the blame on the lender for lending money and expecting borrower to comply with terms he signed for as opposed to the utter idiocy on the part of the Greeks that led to the default.

This is how you reconcile some of the unfathomably lost crap you say around here. Nevermind that free cheese is a self defeating program in the long haul, just blame it on the guys advocating a program that can perpetuate itself and doesn't reward sorriness or ineptitude.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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Except that's the foundation of Capitalism. It is the responsibility of the lender to vet its borrowers. And Capitalism demands they suffer for making bad loans.

Of course, you don't believe in Capitalism, and neither do the "capitalists." (sic) Socialism for the banking interests has been a solid feature of the enterprise from the beginning.
 
#13
#13
utgibbs said:
Except that's the foundation of Capitalism. It is the responsibility of the lender to vet its borrowers. And Capitalism demands they suffer for making bad loans.

Of course, you don't believe in Capitalism, and neither do the "capitalists." (sic) Socialism for the banking interests has been a solid feature of the enterprise from the beginning.
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The point you're making has nothing to do with the stupidity of the Greeks in their socialism run amok. You can couch this any way you wish, but the Greeks screwed the dog here. The Germans pushed hard to try and build / maintain the Eurozone, but it is clearly a godawful plan.
 
#15
#15
utgibbs said:
Except that's the foundation of Capitalism. It is the responsibility of the lender to vet its borrowers. And Capitalism demands they suffer for making bad loans.

Of course, you don't believe in Capitalism, and neither do the "capitalists." (sic) Socialism for the banking interests has been a solid feature of the enterprise from the beginning.
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Capitalism vs Croney Capitalism
 
#16
#16
utgibbs said:
Except that's the foundation of Capitalism. It is the responsibility of the lender to vet its borrowers. And Capitalism demands they suffer for making bad loans.

Of course, you don't believe in Capitalism, and neither do the "capitalists." (sic) Socialism for the banking interests has been a solid feature of the enterprise from the beginning.
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so we should ignore why the borrower was a bad credit?
 
#17
#17
BigPapaVol said:
The point you're making has nothing to do with the stupidity of the Greeks in their socialism run amok. You can couch this any way you wish, but the Greeks screwed the dog here. The Germans pushed hard to try and build / maintain the Eurozone, but it is clearly a godawful plan.
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Wrong again.

The Capitalists aren't trying to get the Greeks to sell off the family silver because the ports, utilities, industries, etc owned by the Greek people are failures. They are trying to buy them because they are so successful.

Moreover, just as we saw in the US, the banks were falling over themselves to make these bad loans. Unlike we suckers in the US, the Greeks are giving them the finger (by the way, the Germans are the greatest squelchers of the 20th century), and telling them to sod off and restructure the loans, or else we'll go back to the Drachma (sp?) thank you very much.

There is an easy solution where everybody wins: restructure the loans. But the piranhas see an opportunity to seize the Greek state in a firesale. The Greeks, though, aren't suckers probably in large part thanks to the Colonels - "the best damn government since Pericles...."
 
#18
#18
droski said:
so we should ignore why the borrower was a bad credit?
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Obviously the Germans did.

But why are you acting like this wasn't standard operating procedure for every Western financial institution over the last decade? Even those prone to miss the real world outside the back door could not miss that little nugget of world history.
 
#19
#19
utgibbs said:
Wrong again.

The Capitalists aren't trying to get the Greeks to sell off the family silver because the ports, utilities, industries, etc owned by the Greek people are failures. They are trying to buy them because they are so successful.

Moreover, just as we saw in the US, the banks were falling over themselves to make these bad loans. Unlike we suckers in the US, the Greeks are giving them the finger (by the way, the Germans are the greatest squelchers of the 20th century), and telling them to sod off and restructure the loans, or else we'll go back to the Drachma (sp?) thank you very much.

There is an easy solution where everybody wins: restructure the loans. But the piranhas see an opportunity to seize the Greek state in a firesale. The Greeks, though, aren't suckers probably in large part thanks to the Colonels - "the best damn government since Pericles...."
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You'll eventually get something right, but it won't be financial. They are demanding because they can. They don't want to restructure and remain in the bed with clear shirkers and sorry MFers like yourself, who believe that the greater good takes precedence over the first lienholder.
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#20
#20
BigPapaVol said:
You'll eventually get something right, but it won't be financial. They are demanding because they can. They don't want to restructure and remain in the bed with clear shirkers and sorry MFers like yourself, who believe that the greater good takes precedence over the first lienholder.Posted via VolNation Mobile
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Couldn't have summed up your debauchery better myself. Thanks for this nugget.

By the way, Capitalism demands the Germans take the hit. But neither you nor the banks believe in the free market or Capitalism.
 
#21
#21
this is like arguing the US govt should take the hit on aig, fannie and freddie because they bailed them out and should have known they were bad credits. govt's don't do bailouts based on fundamentals. if greece was a good credit germany wouldn't have had to float them the loan in teh first place.
 
#22
#22
droski said:
this is like arguing the US govt should take the hit on aig, fannie and freddie because they bailed them out and should have known they were bad credits. govt's don't do bailouts based on fundamentals. if greece was a good credit germany wouldn't have had to float them the loan in teh first place.
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u can't use logic here. please leave.
 
#24
#24
utgibbs said:
Couldn't have summed up your debauchery better myself. Thanks for this nugget.

By the way, Capitalism demands the Germans take the hit. But neither you nor the banks believe in the free market or Capitalism.
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You call his point of view "debauchery", but to him your point of view (that someone can objectively identify a genuine "greater good" and make it so) is beyond pretentious.
 
#25
#25
droski said:
this is like arguing the US govt should take the hit on aig, fannie and freddie because they bailed them out and should have known they were bad credits. govt's don't do bailouts based on fundamentals. if greece was a good credit germany wouldn't have had to float them the loan in teh first place.
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The US taxpayer decided we would do this (as we didn't hit the streets and demand the Will of Capitalism be honored).

The Greek taxpayer has decided they will not.

Saying "Germany had to float them the loan" is actually fairly accurate, except not in any way you mean. These End Times of Capitalism, to which we are witness, required new outlets for capital to grow. We saw it here; we see it there. Credit risks were not only not avoided, they were sought, marketed to heavily, and cajoled into taking highly dubious products in order to rebundle and resell as three lettered nonsense.

Again, there is a win-win. Restructure the loans - it will hurt German banking a little and the Euro, but it will also save the Euro, and it is the will of the Greek people.

Capitalism demands, actually, that Germany take the hit. However, you are neither capitalist, a believer in the free market, and your credentials on democracy are eroding.
 
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