1) In the NFL, you cannot guarantee your consistent rise every year. I think of the 49ers and what a rollercoaster they have been on the last decade. After a 3-13 year in 2018, they go to the Super Bowl in 2019. In 2020, they miss the playoffs. They make 3 straight NFC title games with a SB appearance. They finish in 4th place in 2024. This year they win 12 games and had a chance at the 1 seed in the NFC in week 18. The Eagles made a Super Bowl, collapsed in 2023 with the coach on the hot seat and won the Super Bowl next year with some retooling of the roster and better coordinators.
The Lions got some bad luck. They again were top 5 in football in games missed. That's the second year in a row. I don't care if you have a bad training staff, that's purely bad luck. The NFC North was the best division by winning percentage in 2026 (again). They got screwed by officials in at least 4 games. (DPI against Philly, at least 11 points in Green Bay with the 4th down "catch" and false start/TO fiasco, the clear no catch TD in LA, the OPI against Pitt). That doesn't include the NFL calling in from New York and overturning a TD against Kansas City. Going from the best safety tandem in football to those safeties playing a total of 18 games (and both suffering major injuries that could affect their 2026) just cannot be ignored. Terrion Arnold couldn't get healthy. Sam LaPorta's back injury tanked the offense. Taylor Decker played with a bum shoulder all year. Hell, even Penei got beat up. Eventually, the injury luck will turn. The schedule was absolutely brutal and unfair. They had to play two holidays games, they had to play 3 Thursday games. From November 23rd to December 25th, this team had to play 6 football games, including 3 games in a 10 day span. It was insane.
But injuries happen to every NFL team. Officiating is bad across the league. When you are good and popular, you get primetime games. What you cannot be is a bad running team and a bad run defense team. That is what ultimately doomed them. I don't think the Lions window is closed. However, there were mistakes they made this year that need to be discussed.
2) The combination of not investing properly in the interior of the O-Line and the hire of Johnny Morton was a disaster. They made a grave mistake trying to cut corners and it bit them in the ass. I understood both ideas. They thought they could get a bounce back year from Glasgow and the talent of Mahogany and Ratledge would be enough. They wanted to hire a guy who Goff was comfortable with that wouldn't bolt after one year for a head coaching job. I get it. They could not afford to cut corners in both those departments. In hindsight, an inexperienced OC and lack of talent in the interior was a disaster. Everyone will point to the coordinators leaving but I think had Ragnow come back and been healthy, this offense would have been almost as good in 2024. Yes, I would rather have had Ben Johnson, but Ragnow leaving and the decision to go with Glasgow instead of a different idea is what doomed them.
With that being said, I wonder what this line looks like if they just keep Ratledge as C and Glasgow as G. It probably would have been uglier in the beginning of the year. But Glasgow was such an abject disaster as C that it was the worst decision they made as an organization maybe in their entire 5 years. He was bad in pass blocking, he was god awful in run blocking, they had to rely so much more on Goff for pre snap help. And Glasgow has had a great NFL career when you factor in his draft position. Not a lot of 3rd round picks can say they had a 10 year career. But he was terrible and he's 33. Ratledge is going to be good. He had a lot of ups and downs, very inconsistent. But you can see the long term ability. Mahogany was disappointing and then had the injury. I don't know but I would not go into 2025 confident he's my answer at LG. I think him and Miles Frazier will be in competition there. I also think a trade (they have 2 4th rounders) or free agency needs to be a factor at C. To me, going into 2026 with a rookie or Tate Ratledge never playing the position is not what this team needs. They need a veteran answer at the position.
3) And yet, with that said...this offense still put up over 28 PPG, 2nd in the NFL! Sure, some of that was definitely against bad teams. But when they had LaPorta and a healthy O-Line, they still were (at times) the best offense in the NFL. LaPorta's injury really sunk them and you can pinpoint his injury as the exact timeframe when the Lions offense went into the tank. The issue was the defense and specifically a lack of impact on the D-Line in the run game. Despite the injuries in the secondary, I thought the passing defense was actually okay (outside of a disaster season from Amik Robertson). The problem was the run defense from everyone up front was inexcusable.
Some of that is scheme. I thought there was way too much lack of gap discipline and too much reliance on getting up the field and to the QB, then hoping the back 7 can cover it up. They couldn't. DJ Reader was awful this year, he got pushed around too easy. Alim McNeill was awful as well, though he gets a pass since he's a 320 LB guy coming off major knee surgery. Tyliek Williams had flashes but wasn't good enough for a first round pick. Roy Lopez is good but he doesn't provide enough as a pass rusher. And I thought the second DE, which is very important because Hutch has free reign, was so bad in the run game, no matter who played that spot. I think Shep is going to have to make adjustments. They need Tyliek to work his ass off in the offseason. They need 2023-2024 Alim McNeill. And while I don't think they need a star pass rusher in 2026 to pair with Hutch, they need a real player in that spot that can defend the run and actually hold that spot down. It's been 5 years and it's been an underwhelming cast of characters year after year. I'm tired of it. Please go do something about that spot.
4) I wanted to shout out 3 players in 2025 that impressed me. The first is Jack Campbell, who I think should be an All-Pro at LB in 2025. He was absolutely phenomenal and this defense would have been bottom 5 without him. He got so much better in pass coverage and I felt he really put it together. He's a long-term building block. Jameson Williams got even better and in the last 10 games put up All-Pro production. He got better as a route runner and even after getting his contract, never slowed down his blocking. Love what he brings (also...he's only 24!) and he could have a monster season in 2026. And then Rock Ya-Sin did an awesome job as the backup CB this year. I'd love to bring him back, he saved the Lions secondary from being a disaster in 2025.
5) Right now, the Lions have between $13-14M in cap space to play with in 2026. That's 20th in the NFL. That seems low, but there's a couple important things to note. Jared Goff is projected with a $69.4M cap hit. That's not happening, and I would venture that gets cut in half at minimum with a restructured deal. Let's go ahead and add $30M from a Goff restructure, so that's $43-44M to work with. Cutting Glasgow saves them $5.5M. They can easily get to $50M. And they could easily restructure Decker's deal or he could retire. I doubt Detroit is going to be a major player in free agency, but they absolutely can grab a starter in the IOL and a DE, probably their two biggest spots they can improve. I would also expect some safety help as well, although they could probably add Avonte Maddux for cheap or bring back Daniel Thomas or Thomas Harper, who were fine depth. Either way, the Lions will have some money to work with.
6) For the draft, I'm focusing on the OL. This is a really good OL draft, maybe the strongest position. To me, I'm looking at somebody at OT even if Decker comes back. You can move that player inside until Decker retires if you have too. But with the strength of this O-Line class and how bad the line looked in 2025, this is the #1 position they should focus on. They should be able to get somebody that can start day 1 at that spot and Fraley is really good at development. Then I would focus on D-Line or safety depth in the second round. I also would not be shocked if they looked at LB early because I don't believe Anzalone is coming back and he's their best coverage LB. If you can get a guy like Proctor or Mauigoa, or one of the Utah guys at O-Line (Fano inside or Lomu can be a RT/IOL) then I think that's a big win. Those 4 players are my main focus in the draft.
7) You are going to hear some bad Jared Goff takes in the offseason, and I'm here to tell you blaming him for this season is like blaming your windshield for cracking when you ran into a tree at 50 MPH. He played like a top 10 QB this year and was only truly bad in two games, against the Eagles and the second Minnesota game. Unless you have young Mahomes or a Josh Allen, every QB needs a functioning O-Line. When Detroit held up against pass rushes, he was excellent. He's been top 8 in every passing category this year. When his line failed him, he faltered, which almost all QB's do. You factor in they switched play callers in the middle of the year, his run game was non-existent the second half of the year and Sam LaPorta/Brock Wright missed the second half of the year, I actually came away more impressed with Jared this year. If you fix the O-Line, then Jared will put up MVP numbers for you in 2026. He's not mobile, he never will be and no Mike Valenti, it's not easy to dump him and find a better QB who can run. It doesn't exist right now.
8) What to do about the Offensive Coordinator role? It's going to be a fascinating decision for Dan Campbell in 2026. I thought Dan did fine as a play caller and I understood completely why he took over because Morton was not getting the job done and he was drifting away from what Goff wants to do. My personal belief is Dan does not want to be the play caller and Dan prefers having a guy he fully trusts. Twice we've seen Dan be the play caller and both times he's been pretty adamant it's not his favorite thing to do. But if he is not going to be the play caller, we need to get a veteran who has had success. They cannot go into 2026 with an unknown or unproven guy at that spot. I don't have the full answer. I would love Mike McDaniel if Miami fires him, but he is going to be a hot commodity and he might even get a HC opportunity. Would Mike LaFleur leave LA and McVay for a chance to call plays again? If Baltimore or Pittsburgh fire their HC, would you take a chance at veterans like Arthur Smith or Todd Monken? This team is better when Dan is not the play caller in my opinion. But I do not want a familiar hire, I want the right hire. I don't want to promote David Shaw or Scottie Montgomery because he was in the building or Antwaan Randle-El because Goff knows him. They need a proven, bonafide guy at OC and to get better/more consistent in 2026.
9) The 2025 Lions draft class would be classified as "fine" so far. Tyliek Williams never truly got his footing under him but he showed glimpses and going into 2026 as the projected starter next to Alim should help. He has to be better with his hands and I need a little more explosiveness. Tate Ratledge we spoke of, but I expect a big year in 2026 and think you are going to hear about his improvement in training camp. Isaac TeSlaa will be a starter next year and you saw his potential. I hope whoever calls play figures him more into the game plan, he can be a major weapon. Miles Frazier had surgery and didn't have a training camp. The Lions really like him and he showed flashes when he played. I think expecting anything from Ahmed Hassanein, Dominic Lovett or Dan Jackson is fruitless. If Williams and Ratledge take major steps and become bonafide starters in 2026, plus TeSlaa being more involved in the offense, I will be very happy.
10) There's no easy way to say it. This year was a failure. The Lions has won 27 regular season games, 2 division titles and 2 playoff games the last two years. They were division favorites and a top 5 Super Bowl favorite going into 2025. The schedule was jam packed in 2025, but they had a chance against two mediocre teams in Pittsburgh and Minnesota for a week 18 matchup to win the division against Chicago. They got exactly the help they needed. And they failed. The defense failed them in Week 16 and the offense failed them in week 17. Those two games are the first time my faith in this organization took a hit since October 2022 (and even then I knew and respected the plan). Sometimes, organizations can think every decision they make is the right one. And when you win 29 games along with breaking a 30+ year playoff win drought over a 2 year span, it's easy to fall into that trap. They thought Glasgow/Mahogany/Ratledge was enough. They thought Johnny Morton (a career positional coach/college OC) was enough. They thought their D-Line was enough. Those three mistakes doomed them in 2025.
I think the organization is still healthy. They still have Goff in his prime plus a plethora of dangerous options in their prime at the skill positions. They still have a top 3 tackle in the game. Hutchinson/Campbell/McNeill can still be All-Pro players on defense. They should get Joseph back by Week 1 and Reed/Arnold should have better injury luck in 2025. They get a really, really nice schedule in 2025 playing the NFC South, the Jets/Dolphins and finishing in last place gives them the Giants (new coach), the Titans (new coach) and the Cardinals (maybe new coach!), which is a massive win for them. With missing the playoffs, Brad Holmes might finally feel the pressure and urgency to make a big move. Dan is probably going to go outside his comfort zone for a proven OC to work with Goff. Hopefully getting two picks in the top 50 will help the talent pool and having around $50M in cap space can fill some holes/depth they need. Get a real DE opposite Hutch, get a real C, draft an impact player in round 1 and round 2...you are right back in Super Bowl contention.
I don't think they need to rebuild, they need to retool. But they also need to reorganize their thought process and rely less on "their" internal answers. This year is just a reminder that not pushing more chips in 2023 & 2024 and relying on internal answers makes it more painful knowing how close they were. The extensions are kicking in and Goff is in his 30's. The Bears, Packers and Vikings are organizations that have their **** together and are going to be factors moving forward. I'm not advocating to trade 3 first round picks for Myles Garrett. But what I am advocating for is to get to trade or sign a solid, veteran C. Maybe give Trey Hendrickson a big deal in free agency. Make a trade to move up in the draft and get a real dawg on the Offensive or Defensive Line. Don't think you are going to outsmart everyone and rely on Graham Glasgow and DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport to save your season. Don't be so risk averse and avoid the trade deadline like a plague. That type of thinking leads to seasons like these. You can't believe every player you draft will pan out or every "bargain" in free agency is going to work. The organization is great at drafting and yes, they have done a great job with some development. But they've suffered a major brain drain the last two years from their coaching staffs. You can't assume because you did something great in 2023 it's going to automatically work in 2026.
2026 is going to be the next major step for Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell. We know they can build. But these two preach about sustainability as much as any GM/coach tandem in all of the NFL. It's why they have talked about not taking long-term risks and protecting their assets, because they want to build a long-term winner, not a 3 year window. I appreciate that and agree with the idea. But now it's time to see about the execution. This offseason is the most important under the Holmes/Campbell regime. What they have accomplished in five years should not be diminished. They've won 2 division titles, they've ended a 32 year playoff win drought, they have 4 straight winning seasons (first time since 1969-1972 by the Lions) and 4th in regular season wins since 2022. But the margins are slim in the NFL. Having a handle on the NFL can slip quickly through your fingers if you don't look to internally improve every day. Can the Lions avoid the rut so many franchises in sports fall into? The 2026 offseason will be a fascinating follow for the Detroit Lions.