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Super Def Ill
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- Nov 8, 2009
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Despite what a lot of people believe, there are always a lot of favorites this far into the tournament. For the most part, these tournaments go fairly close to the seeding. There are upsets - it's what makes this tournament great - but people misremember how often they occur beyond the first round. Only twenty-one 12 seeds have won a second round game ever. Only twenty-two 11 seeds have. Going purely off seeding, Oregon technically wasn't an upset because they were a 12 beating an 13.
A 9 and a 10 have only made it to the Final Four once; an 11 has surprisingly made it 4 times, but a 12-16 has never made it. More than 50% of the time, a 1 seed wins the championship.
Only nine 11 or 12 seeds, ever, have won a Sweet 16 game, but you hear people say stuff like you "need" to have a seed that high going that far in your bracket because of "the upsets." It's actually pretty rare.
Exactly. That’s why I can miss on 9 opening round games, yet wind up with 15/16 of the Sweet Sixteen. First round can get a little wild, but order is typically restored by the Sweet Sixteen.