The only teams that matter

[mrmax86]

Here I am again making a CFP Rankings-related thread the day of rankings release. Here are my thoughts on where we should focus our attention and who we should be rooting against.

Penn St
Indiana
Notre Dame
Alabama
Georgia
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

These are the only teams we need to worry about.

Assumptions
-Oregon or OSU will win the Big Ten. Loser makes CFP
-Texas will win the SEC
-Miami will win the ACC (if they lose the ACCC, they drop out and be replaced by who beats them)
-Big 12 champ not in top 12
-MW/American/PAC 12 champ not in top 12

This leaves 6 slots for the 7 teams above, plus us (8 teams).

Upcoming Schedule

11/23 Weekend
Penn State @ 6-4 Minnesota
Indiana @ 9-1 Ohio State
Notre Dame vs 9-0 Army (in NY)
Alabama @ 5-5 Oklahoma
Georgia vs 2-8 UMass
Ole Miss @ 5-5 Florida
Texas A&M @ 4-6 Auburn
Tennessee vs 2-8 UTEP

11/30 Weekend
Penn State vs 5-6/4-7 Maryland
Indiana vs 2-9/1-10 Purdue
Notre Dame vs 6-5/5-6 USC
Alabama vs 5-6/4-7 Auburn
Georgia vs 7-4/6-5 Georgia Tech
Ole Miss vs 3-8/2-9 Miss. State
Texas A&M vs 10-1/9-2 Texas
Tennessee @ 7-4/6-5 Vanderbilt

Where we are ranked relative to these teams tonight at rankings release, as well as these teams' performances the next 2 weeks will weigh very heavily.

From what I can tell, only in a few freak situations would there be a bid "stolen" from outside the top 10. Most likely, this is the true situation with the CFP. Avoid being the last 2 out of these 8 teams, and we're in.

 

[mrmax86]

Some rankings:

Team	ESPN FPI	ESPN SOR	SOS	Rem SOS	Massey Composite
Penn State	7	4	35	48	8
Indiana	11	6	106	4	5
Notre Dame	4	13	82	25	6
Alabama	2	7	16	12	4
Georgia	5	2	1	42	7
Ole Miss	6	12	29	49	9
Texas A&M	14	11	25	3	17
Tennessee	9	10	18	69	12

Normalized to these 8 teams:

Team	ESPN FPI	ESPN SOR	SOS	Rem SOS	Massey Composite
Penn State	5	2	6	6	5
Indiana	7	3	8	2	2
Notre Dame	2	8	7	4	3
Alabama	1	4	2	3	1
Georgia	3	1	1	5	4
Ole Miss	4	7	5	7	6
Texas A&M	8	6	4	1	8
Tennessee	6	5	3	8	7

 

[njvols]

Outside of the SEC scramble, a couple of wins on UT's behalf would do the trick, especially a good solid thumping by OSU.
Indiana @ 9-1 Ohio State
Notre Dame vs 9-0 Army (in NY)

 

[Cartervol]

Outside of the SEC scramble, a couple of wins on UT's behalf would do the trick, especially a good solid thumping by OSU.
Indiana @ 9-1 Ohio State
Notre Dame vs 9-0 Army (in NY)

With where they have Indiana ranked i can't see them dropping them out even if they lose big. Be a good argument.. Seems they're kind of hell bent on getting 4 Big garbage teams in this playoff. Indiana's strength of schedule is a joke though. They're that eye candy team that's going to take a spot from a solid team that would beat the shat out of them.

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

If history has taught us anything, it's that there is a LOT of football left to be played with 2 regular season games plus the conference championships. So much can happen between now and then so it's pointless to be discussing CFP decisions. I guess it's fun to discuss but not to be taken too seriously until the regular season ends.

 

[DaddyChad]

Texas vs Texas AM should sort itself out and drop one of those teams below us.

Indiana losing to Ohio state big should drop them a lot bc they have no quality wins. I just don’t see the committee putting them in over an SEC team with quality wins.

 

[mrmax86]

I think our unexpectedly large percentage to make the playoff is derived mostly from the number of opportunities that teams above us have to lose.

 

[LittleVol]

None of this matters if we don’t beat Vandy.

 

[NetworkVol]

With where they have Indiana ranked i can't see them dropping them out even if they lose big. Be a good argument.. Seems they're kind of hell bent on getting 4 Big garbage teams in this playoff. Indiana's strength of schedule is a joke though. They're that eye candy team that's going to take a spot from a solid team that would beat the shat out of them.

Been hearing more and more that sec doesn't want to play the big 10 up north in the cold. Based on the narrative, it's matching up with how the rankings are. They are clearly boosting the big 10 but the entire country knows the sec is superior.

 

[thehardknoxlife]

I predict that there's a scenario that hasn't been predicted yet. I expect some crazy stuff that no one saw coming. There's just too much football left to even worry about it tbh.

No one is even talking about Army who should move up the ranking if they beat ND and Navy to stay undefeated, which I think they will.

 

[mrmax86]

I predict that there's a scenario that hasn't been predicted yet. I expect some crazy stuff that no one saw coming. There's just too much football left to even worry about it tbh.

No one is even talking about Army who should move up the ranking if they beat ND and Navy to stay undefeated, which I think they will.

You're right. I don't think they hop everyone. I think the current top 11 (down to us) has a nearly-impenetrable wall between us and the rest of the top 25. They'd most likely hop a Boise or BYU to get the 4th/5th conference winner, rather than hop us. That'd just be insane.

 

[P.O.T.S. VOL]

I predict that there's a scenario that hasn't been predicted yet. I expect some crazy stuff that no one saw coming. There's just too much football left to even worry about it tbh.

No one is even talking about Army who should move up the ranking if they beat ND and Navy to stay undefeated, which I think they will.

Gave the "like" because the first paragraph is spot on...that's college football PLUS ....PLUS ...a group of idiots deciding future games.

But I don't think The Good Guy's beat nd. Army is going to run into something they haven't seen all season. But .

 

[JMSqb11]

Here I am again making a CFP Rankings-related thread the day of rankings release. Here are my thoughts on where we should focus our attention and who we should be rooting against.

Penn St
Indiana
Notre Dame
Alabama
Georgia
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

These are the only teams we need to worry about.

Assumptions
-Oregon or OSU will win the Big Ten. Loser makes CFP
-Texas will win the SEC
-Miami will win the ACC (if they lose the ACCC, they drop out and be replaced by who beats them)
-Big 12 champ not in top 12
-MW/American/PAC 12 champ not in top 12

This leaves 6 slots for the 7 teams above, plus us (8 teams).

Upcoming Schedule

11/23 Weekend
Penn State @ 6-4 Minnesota
Indiana @ 9-1 Ohio State
Notre Dame vs 9-0 Army (in NY)
Alabama @ 5-5 Oklahoma
Georgia vs 2-8 UMass
Ole Miss @ 5-5 Florida
Texas A&M @ 4-6 Auburn
Tennessee vs 2-8 UTEP

11/30 Weekend
Penn State vs 5-6/4-7 Maryland
Indiana vs 2-9/1-10 Purdue
Notre Dame vs 6-5/5-6 USC
Alabama vs 5-6/4-7 Auburn
Georgia vs 7-4/6-5 Georgia Tech
Ole Miss vs 3-8/2-9 Miss. State
Texas A&M vs 10-1/9-2 Texas
Tennessee @ 7-4/6-5 Vanderbilt

Where we are ranked relative to these teams tonight at rankings release, as well as these teams' performances the next 2 weeks will weigh very heavily.

From what I can tell, only in a few freak situations would there be a bid "stolen" from outside the top 10. Most likely, this is the true situation with the CFP. Avoid being the last 2 out of these 8 teams, and we're in.

If OSU blows out Indiana and USC or Army can pull out a win vs Notre Dame, we are solid

 

[KTrain]

None of this matters if we don’t beat Vandy.

Anything could happen but with the added incentive to get sky high for the game could help the Vols. I know some years when they have 4 or 5 wins, we come in lackadaisical, and they keep it close.