The Preakness Stakes

#1
J

JTrainDavis

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#1
It's hard to bet against Big Brown, that said, it's hard to bet WITH Big Brown either. He'll probably walk to post at 1:5 or so.

Depending on how it looks right before post time, I'm going to bank (tentatively, or course) winners on Gayego and Kentucky Bear. Paolo Lobo said he lost confidence in Gayego midway through the Derby, but he wouldn't be bringing him to Pimlico to run for the place. He's a quick horse, and there is going to be alot less traffic, an outside start might play to his strengths, as he's not starting nearly as far from the rail as at Churchill. I feel If he can outrun the pack over the first 2f, and get the rail, he can get it done.

Bear is pretty green, lightly raced, somewhat of an unknown quantity. His trainer is good, and he is a statuesque TB, lots of whispers about his ability to run. Coming out of the gate aside Big Brown, he might make a gamey effort, one worth the price on the win bet, so long as you aren't betting the farm.

That said, I like Big Brown, though the odds make a bet on him a waste. Dominating as he was in the Derby, he's lightly raced, and racing on 2 weeks offtime might screw him up a little. I expect him to win handily, but he has some flaws, the risk:reward of putting down a $50 win to take home 70 or so dollars just doesnt do it.
Even with an Exacta, it's not worth the cash, you might cash your ticket, but the money wagered: money won isn't going to be enough to take the shot
 
#4
#4
VolinArizona said:
Weak field for Brown to beat, IMO.
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Gayego is a very solid horse for this race. He is bred for speed and the Preakness is suited for him. The others are somewhat suspect. KYBear is getting a lot of talk primarily for his work outs.

Some of the other horses that are solid horses are sitting out and resting for the Belmont. A mile and a half is a tough race to win with plenty of rest much less after two big races with only 2 weeks rest between.
 
#17
#17
He could, it'll be his 3rd start, and he has an extra week of rest, but I don't see that making a difference. He worked like hell at the Peter Pan, whereas Big Brown looked pretty unspent after yesterday's run.

Of course, he's got a puncher's chance, but thats about it, IMHO.
 
#19
#19
cd12 said:
Never seen a race where the jockey never used his whip.
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KD has not hit him with a whip yet. He hasnt needed to. When he calls on him he all he has had to do is hand ride him. He is a very, very good horse.

What got me is that KD actually looked under his arm twice! It was almost like he couldnt believe he was that far ahead. He started galloping that colt out before he even hit the line. That Colt is one of the best we have seen in a long time.
 
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