DiderotsGhost
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South Carolina fans should possibly root against us next week versus Missouri, while Georgia fans should be for the Vols. This might make no sense at first, but let me explain. Mathematically speaking, there are still five teams that have a realistic chance of winning the SEC East, including Tennessee. And it's a shaping up to be a huge cluster#@$ at the top.
Here is how things stack up:
Missouri. 3-1. Mizzou is technically in the lead, but still has three very losable games, with Tennessee coming up next, then Ole Miss in mid November, followed by Texas A&M. They do get Kentucky in there, but that's really the only freebie. Unfortunately for Mizzou, if they lose even one of those games, they are suddenly no longer in the driver's seat. That's particularly bad news given that the A&M game looks very difficult.
South Carolina. 4-2. SC may actually be in the best shape to win the SEC East. It has the easiest remaining schedule, with bottom-dweller Mississippi State coming up next and Florida after that. I've watched Miss State a few times this year, and they've looked atrocious. Florida is probably the biggest hurdle for SC, but they have another issue. If Mizzou finishes with 2 losses, SC wins the head-to-head. However, if Mizzou finishes with 3 losses, then SC could potentially have a problem ...
Georgia. 3-2. SC's biggest issue is Georgia since it lost to UGA earlier this season. That means SC ideally wants UGA to lose, and if not, they want a 3-way tie with UGA and Mizzou. UGA still has Florida and Auburn coming up, before an easy game with Kentucky. Georgia should be rooting loudly for Tennessee to beat Mizzou, since that will likely result in Mizzou falling to 3 losses, and UGA wins the tie-breaker with SC. If UT beats Mizzou, then UGA suddenly looks in pretty decent shape.
Florida. 3-2. Mathematically, Florida is in good shape as UGA. Schedule-wise, it may be rough. Florida needs to beat South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt to have a real shot at the SEC East. Florida also looks as if it's regressed as the year has gone on. Florida also should be rooting for Tennessee, since if it wins out, UGA and SC will both have 3 losses, and it needs Mizzou to also lose 3 games to have a shot. So basically, Florida has to win all of its games, and hope for Mizzou to falter twice.
Tennessee. 1-3. Realistically speaking UT is a long-shot, but mathematically, we still have a chance. Our biggest positive is that we've already played the most brutal part of our schedule (SC, UGA, Florida, Bama). The downside is that we basically have to win the next four games to have a shot, and that seems unlikely. However, if we were to beat Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky, we'd have a reasonable shot. First off, Mizzou is favored to lose vs A&M and we'd win a tie-breaker with Mizzou (if we beat them). But then, UGA would have to lose to Auburn, Florida would need to lose to Georgia, while South Carolina would need to lose to Florida. (Or some similar wacky scenario). We're not out of it, but frankly, I'd be happy going 2-2 or 3-1 and making it to a bowl game. No desire to replay Alabama.
If you asked me to give odds right now:
South Carolina 32%
Missouri 28%
Georgia 28%
Florida 11%
Tennessee 1%
South Carolina has the easiest remaining schedule with a weak Miss State team and a very winnable game (at home) versus Florida. That would put them at 6-2, and they'd have to hope that Mizzou loses at least one more game (probably 70% odds on that) and /or that Georgia loses to either Auburn or Florida (maybe 50% odds). But strangely, the ideal situation is that Mizzou *ONLY* loses one more to provide some protection against Georgia in case they win out.
Right now, it's shaping up to be a crazy race with the possibility of a 3-way tie at the top.
Here is how things stack up:
Missouri. 3-1. Mizzou is technically in the lead, but still has three very losable games, with Tennessee coming up next, then Ole Miss in mid November, followed by Texas A&M. They do get Kentucky in there, but that's really the only freebie. Unfortunately for Mizzou, if they lose even one of those games, they are suddenly no longer in the driver's seat. That's particularly bad news given that the A&M game looks very difficult.
South Carolina. 4-2. SC may actually be in the best shape to win the SEC East. It has the easiest remaining schedule, with bottom-dweller Mississippi State coming up next and Florida after that. I've watched Miss State a few times this year, and they've looked atrocious. Florida is probably the biggest hurdle for SC, but they have another issue. If Mizzou finishes with 2 losses, SC wins the head-to-head. However, if Mizzou finishes with 3 losses, then SC could potentially have a problem ...
Georgia. 3-2. SC's biggest issue is Georgia since it lost to UGA earlier this season. That means SC ideally wants UGA to lose, and if not, they want a 3-way tie with UGA and Mizzou. UGA still has Florida and Auburn coming up, before an easy game with Kentucky. Georgia should be rooting loudly for Tennessee to beat Mizzou, since that will likely result in Mizzou falling to 3 losses, and UGA wins the tie-breaker with SC. If UT beats Mizzou, then UGA suddenly looks in pretty decent shape.
Florida. 3-2. Mathematically, Florida is in good shape as UGA. Schedule-wise, it may be rough. Florida needs to beat South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt to have a real shot at the SEC East. Florida also looks as if it's regressed as the year has gone on. Florida also should be rooting for Tennessee, since if it wins out, UGA and SC will both have 3 losses, and it needs Mizzou to also lose 3 games to have a shot. So basically, Florida has to win all of its games, and hope for Mizzou to falter twice.
Tennessee. 1-3. Realistically speaking UT is a long-shot, but mathematically, we still have a chance. Our biggest positive is that we've already played the most brutal part of our schedule (SC, UGA, Florida, Bama). The downside is that we basically have to win the next four games to have a shot, and that seems unlikely. However, if we were to beat Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky, we'd have a reasonable shot. First off, Mizzou is favored to lose vs A&M and we'd win a tie-breaker with Mizzou (if we beat them). But then, UGA would have to lose to Auburn, Florida would need to lose to Georgia, while South Carolina would need to lose to Florida. (Or some similar wacky scenario). We're not out of it, but frankly, I'd be happy going 2-2 or 3-1 and making it to a bowl game. No desire to replay Alabama.
If you asked me to give odds right now:
South Carolina 32%
Missouri 28%
Georgia 28%
Florida 11%
Tennessee 1%
South Carolina has the easiest remaining schedule with a weak Miss State team and a very winnable game (at home) versus Florida. That would put them at 6-2, and they'd have to hope that Mizzou loses at least one more game (probably 70% odds on that) and /or that Georgia loses to either Auburn or Florida (maybe 50% odds). But strangely, the ideal situation is that Mizzou *ONLY* loses one more to provide some protection against Georgia in case they win out.
Right now, it's shaping up to be a crazy race with the possibility of a 3-way tie at the top.
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