The SEC v. Recruiting Averages

#52
#52
Crazy Ivan said:
The best news is that we have definitive proof that Jones can drive the Ferrari he has been given.

Huh? Our talent level is the equivalent of a Ferrari? I thought Butch inherited a Dodge Dart?
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Jones inherited a Ferrari, it's engine just has a couple of cylinders down. Spare parts are on the way.
 
#53
#53
Nothing to add to the discussion, I just wanted to say that I enjoy your posts so that you would be encouraged to post more often. :)
 
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#54
#54
BaldBiker said:
I want USCe to win this weekend. I'm not all about this wanting MO to be highly ranked when we meet them. Screw that. The more they win, the more confidence they'll have. USCe needs to kick their arses while we pull off the game of the year in a fourth quarter squeaker.

"You have the game winning kick this weekend, right Palardy"?
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You wouldn't rather beat a top 4-5 ranked team?
 
#55
#55
Special Ed said:
Although I usually enjoy seeing the Ol' Ball Scratch get his arse kicked, I don't particularyly want MO to win either. MO and A&M still feel like interlopers to me. It'll be a few years before I can accept them as bona fide SEC members. I don't really dislike MO, but I wouldn't mind seeing them knocked down a peg by losing on Saturday. Even if they lose to SC, they'll still be ranked when we play them. It just ain't right for an SEC newcomer to be unscathed this far into the season. By the same token, I won't be all that bothered if MO does win. Their ensuing overconfidence, and even higher ranking, the following Saturday will be to our advantage.
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Personally, I've been all for teams making UGA, UF, and even USCe look worse through beating them, especially since we recruit most of the same areas so heavily against the 3.
 
#57
#57
Nice work. I've enjoyed this since you started posting about it. Have you messed around with weighting the classes (ie seniors counting more freshmen) to get the numbers to correlate more than 70%?
 
#58
#58
daj2576 said:
So did we win any games, and play a couple of really close games against teams who were solid at the time, or am I seeing into the future (like 2016)? I am confused by your logic. Did Butch make our players play fast enough to keep up with UGA, UF and SCAR with his mind?

We aren't as slow or as untalented across the board as many want to believe. We aren't the fastest team in the SEC, but we aren't the slowest and a bit of scheming and teaching better angle of attack can make up for that.
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Agree with your thoughts/assessment of UTs talent and impact Butch's coaching has made in terms of allowing the team to play faster.

Looks to me like we're middle of the pack in the SEC talent-wise, which a Tennessee team should never be. Our lack of talent is partially why we're 28 pt dogs to Bama this week.
 
#59
#59
MSCE09 said:
Nice work. I've enjoyed this since you started posting about it. Have you messed around with weighting the classes (ie seniors counting more freshmen) to get the numbers to correlate more than 70%?
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The honest and short answer to this question is yes. In fact, I spent well over 1000 hours preparing a similar study for my employer. This specific study didn't look at the exact variables that you requested, but it was certainly more specific insofar as what types of players correlate with the best predictive abilities. We didn't look at age, just specific measureables. Many of those might improve with age/experience, but that wasn't a factor to be examined specifically.

Basically it is looking at talent averages, but does so by taking the next huge and very expensive step of comparing offenses vs. defenses based on player tangibles of a certain magnitude.

I published it and now I refuse to look at it. It isn't mine (it is my employer's) and I don't want to give out any information that my employer has paid for.

Like I told someone earlier, I am getting you guys into the predictive range of 2/3 with this very simple evaluation. As Mitch Hedberg said: "An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs. You should never see an Escalator Temporarily Out Of Order sign, just Escalator Temporarily Stairs. Sorry for the convenience."

:) Thanks for your input, but this is as far as I can take you.
 
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#61
#61
#64
#64
Catbone said:
Interesting. Thanks :hi:
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Of the 60+ games already played, the only ones NOT predicted were:

  1. Vandy v. UGA (explainable by UGA's massive attrition after the UT game)
  2. Missou v. Florida and UGA (for UGA see Vandy explanation, for Florida see Muschamp should be fired)
  3. Georgia v. LSU (Look at Miles' production, he loses to teams he should beat, then beats teams he should lose to, coming out a wash. This happens pretty regularly under the ole mad hatter).
  4. Ole Miss v. LSU (see above)
  5. LSU v. Florida and Auburn (Florida has a coach with the worst effect on talent in the NCAA, Auburn is an incredibly talented team learning how to win again after being hobbled by Chizik).

Other than that, the other 80% of SEC games have been predicted using talent averages.

Read this site for another view:
Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview
 
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#65
#65
Do you have the coaches historical +/- readily available and willing to share?

A friend of mine is a State fan and is really down on Mullen and I was thinking that Mullen is usually an over achiever but was curious if you had that info? If not its okay, thanks for sharing what you have. Its a pretty nice staircase.
 
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