The Unofficial 2016 Australian Open Thread

#3
#3
Draw Analysis:

I'll go in the order of what I'l refer to as Quadrants 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Quadrant 1:
This is Novak Djokovic's draw, so best of luck to everybody else. The other seeded players in this quad are Kei Nishikori (7), Tsonga (9), Simon (14), GGL (22), Seppi (28). The only guy who has a decent chance of beating him is Kei. I doubt he'll even drop a set until he plays Tsonga in the round of 16.

Quadrant 2:
This is Fedsmug's draw. I think this is actually a tricky draw for The Great Smug. His second round match against Dolgo is tricky. Dolgo is a damn good but streaky player. He's got mad tools. If Fed gets through that he'll have Baby Fed in the third round. I feel like Baby Fed is primed for a good year, and will give Rog a match. I do tend to always favor the superior player when you've got two guys who have basically the same style, and so I would lean towards Fed in that matchup, but it's not an easy road. It could tire out the 34 year old a bit.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Berdych v. Kyrgios match in the third round. I might even be inclined to give Kyrgios the slight edge in that matchup, but I'll certainly reserve the right to change my mind. Cilic v. Bautista will also be a very interesting third round matchup. I'm a fan of Cilic so I'll be rooting for him, but Bautista is one of those Steady Eddie guys that will sneak up on you. Goffin v. Thiem is another very interesting third round matchup and will give us a look at two very solid younger guys. The winner of that match -- I'll go with Goffin -- gets the winner of Fed and Baby Fed. This is a tough quadrant.

Quadrant 3:
This quad gives us both the The Great Great Rafael Nadal (TGGRN) and Stan the Man. I think you gotta like one of those two guys to come out of this, and I am leaning towards TGGRN, though he definitely has a relatively tricky first round matchup against Verdasco. If he gets through that, though, I see him having a relatively smooth path through to the quarters.

Stan should have a relatively easy time in the first two rounds, but then has an interesting potential matchup against Jack Sock (jizzrag) in the third round. I'm definitely looking forward to seeing the jizzrag take on Taylor Fritz in the first round, but more from the perspective of seeing how well the young young American holds up. I think the jizzrag makes it through to the third round and could possibly give the Stanimal everything he can handle and more. Don't sleep on the jizzrag. If Stan makes it through that match, he is looking at a very interesting match against my favorite player Milos Raonic. I think Rafa will take out the winner of that match.

Quadrant 4:
I think this is probably the easiest quad and a really good draw for Andy Murray. I do think that, like Rafa, he has a tricky first round match. Alex Zverev is a baller and will play him tough. If Murray gets through that, though, where is his next challenge? His second round match will be relatively easy and I don't see him getting much of a match until he potentially gets Bernie Tomic. But of course with Bernie Tomic, there's never any guarantee that he'll live up to his end of the deal.

The upper half of this quad just does not strike me as particularly scary. Could either Stevie Johnson or John Isner make it out to the quarters. I don't think you can rule that out completely. I think DuhVEED is on the back nine of his career and is certain susceptible to an upset. I like the winner of the bottom half of this quad to make it through to the semis.
 
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#4
#4
There's Novak Djokovic and the field. Djokovic has taken all of the fun out of these discussions. He is just that dominant.

I haven't looked at the draw except briefly to see where Djoker, Fed, Ralph, Murray and Wawa ended up.

Honestly, no one can touch Djoker if he shows up. I see a Djoker v. Wawrinka final.

Nadal will be heard from in Paris. But something has left his game and I don't have faith he can slip through in Melbourne. If Djoker stumbles (and he won't), I'd suddenly at least give Federer some love.

All I really know is that it is 10 degrees where I live so I am warming myself from the glow of the tv screen in Melbourne.
 
#5
#5
Nadal out to Verdasco in Round 1. What in the holy F is wrong with his game? I watched the first 3 sets and thought he was striking the ball cleanly and had nice placement. I think it's all mental. He may be about finished.

Damn. Nadal was up 2-0 in the Fifth set before Verdasco won 6 straight games to win the match.
 
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#6
#6
Rafa needs to get rid of Uncle Toni. Forehand isnt nearly as punishing, and appears a little down mentally. Maybe its because he tends to have to play a couole matches in a slam to get rolling, and he drew a very bad 1st round match up. When I saw he was playing a Verdasco I figured it would be a coin toss.
 
#7
#7
Verdasco might have been a bad match up 5 years ago, but he is 32 and I honestly thought he had recently retired for some reason.

Nadal does not lose to Verdasco. It's like career 15-2 in favor of Nadal. My point is that there's "something" not right with Nadal. This is the kind of loss that can affect one's entire season. Good lord. I feel bad for Rafa.

I agree that he needs to cut Uncle Toni loose. That would be step one.
 
#8
#8
Verdasco has won 3 out of the last 4 against Rafa, dating back to 2012. Rafa hasnt bee himself in quite sometime. Maybe a change in camp could give him a fresh set of eyes.
 
#9
#9
^^Good info. Did not realize that.

Verdasco is 3-15 against Rafa and got his three wins within the past 4 matches. Crazy.
 
#10
#10
Verdasco has seemed to improve his second serve. His first has always been pretty good, but the second got him in trouble. If the second doesn't get him in trouble against Rafa, I'm not sure who would make a dent in it, sans Djokovich.
 
#12
#12
Would love to see Raonic come through in this one. Kyrgios IS a tool, and I believe he's already been ousted. May not be a stroll through the field for Novak, this time. Nishikori is playing very high quality tennis right now. Berdych, Fed, Ferrer, Wawrinka also still alive, among Milos and others.
 
#13
#13
I know better than to go out on a limb and actually pick Raonic, though. I've been doing thaat for years in these threads and been dead-ass wrong every time.
 
#14
#14
Raonic is up 2 sets to 1 on Wawrinka at the moment and is playing great tennis. This could be his breakout moment should he hold on and take out Wawa.

Djoker was pushed by Simon yesterday but that has been the standard for the past few slams won by Djoker. He survives a very tough match and then wins the title going away.

Federer is playing exceptionally well. But he can't beat Djoker even if he faces him in the semi.

I've completely overlooked Murray this year. He looks solid. But it's still Djoker's to lose.
 
#17
#17
^^I'll take it. Roger is playing very well. However, it is a monumental task to stay close to Novak in a match these days. Beating him requires an off day from Novak plus your own A game. I'm pulling for Federer but just don't believe he can pull it off. Hope you're right.
 
#18
#18
Murray v Raonic will be a great match to watch. That one should be interesting and quite competitive.
I hope Fed gets through Djoke, but I doubt it will happen.
 
#19
#19
Forgive my MIA status. When Rafa loses in the first round, KB gets sad; doesn't wanna talk about it.

The final matchup of Djoker v. Murray should be a surprise to no one. I think Murray is the only guy that *could* beat Djoker, but I don't think he will. Djokovic is just on a different planet right now.
 
#22
#22
DyronNix said:
^^I'll take it. Roger is playing very well. However, it is a monumental task to stay close to Novak in a match these days. Beating him requires an off day from Novak plus your own A game. I'm pulling for Federer but just don't believe he can pull it off. Hope you're right.
Click to expand...


What beating Novak also appears to require is several hours of, for lack of a better phrase, grinding. And in addition to being the best player on tour, Novak is also the fittest. Beating him right now is a tough ask on any surface, and especially at the Australian, which is his most successful venue.
 
#24
#24
Interesting question:

Is Novak Djokovic, right now, playing at a level higher than the very best of either Roger or Rafa?
 
#25
#25
kidbourbon said:
Interesting question:

Is Novak Djokovic, right now, playing at a level higher than the very best of either Roger or Rafa?
Click to expand...

Give him another year at the level he's playing at and I can give him the nod. I think in terms of longevity, Fed is tops. Rafa had an unbelievable 4 or 5 yrs. Might be done now, but an argument could be made it might be the best stretch ever. Is Jokers level right now better than either? I would put him in the conversation. But generally it gets put in historical terms. Now if you wanna talk about the best player that ever played a tennis match? Marat Safin. And I say that with an absolutely straight face. Dude was a headcase. But when he was on there was no point in walking out there with him.
 
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