The Unofficial French Open Thread 2013

#1
kidbourbon

kidbourbon

Disgusting!
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#1
Qualifying starts Tuesday and the main draw starts on Sunday.

On the men's side, Rafa has to be considered the favorite. There is only one guy who can beat him in a five set match on clay, and that is Novak Djokovic. But Novak has been inconsistent this clay court season. He took out Rafa in the Monte Carlo final, giving Rafa his first loss at that venue in 9 years. But then he got taken out by Grigor Dimitrov at Madrid and then Thomas Berdych at Rome. So will he be able to make it through the draw to get matched up with Rafa?

If they do meet in the final, I think Novak will beat him. But I still have to consider Rafa the odds-on favorite since you know he will be in the final, and there is only one guy who can beat him.

Roger Federer clearly can't beat him on clay. Rafa just handed him a 6-1, 6-3 loss in the Rome final. He's been giving David Ferrer regular beatings his entire career. Del Potro has looked shaky this clay court season. I'm ready to call Delpo a hard-court specialist. Murray is injured and probably won't play. Thomas Berdych did just beat Nole, but he's not beating Rafa.

With Rafa's victory in Rome, he is officially ranked #4, and the potential crisis with him being ranked fifth at Roland Garros is averted.

Some other guys who are playing really well: Grigor Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori, Benoit Paire, and my boy Ernest Gulbis

On the female side, I would not bet against Serena. She got taken out early last year at RG in a huge upset, but don't count on that happening again. The only player who can conceivably beat her is Azarenka. And she just took out Victoria relatively routinely in the Rome final.


More analysis when the draws come out.


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#2
#2
Bjorn Borg on Nadal

Björn, what do you think of the Big Four (Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal) who are currently dominating men's tennis?

First of all, I'd like to say that I'm delighted that Nadal is back, that he is playing again at last. He's a very important figure for tennis in general. He has a really strong personality and whatever he does, he creates a buzz around tennis just by coming on court. As for Roger, I hope that he'll be around for another few years. As far as I'm concerned, he is the greatest player of all time. Djokovic is the best player there is at the moment, and he's certainly proved that, and Murray's up there as well. The rivalry between these four guys is incredible, and it's exactly what tennis needs.



Nadal is currently 26 years old which is the age you were when you decided to give up tennis. And he looks like he is going to carry on smashing every clay-court record in existence…

He's incredible – he's is the best player that there has ever been on clay! Watching him play on this surface and how he is evolving… At least he's injured some of the time, which gives the others a ray of hope! On clay though, he's still the man to beat – and that will always be the case for as long as he is playing. We saw that at Monte Carlo and that's not going to change at Roland Garros, where it's best-of-five sets out on Centre Court! He's only ever lost there once, remember… There's no-one better than him on this surface! People don't realise this – maybe the public has been spoilt to a certain extent. Rafa's quite simply an artist when it comes to clay!



Are you surprised at how well he has been playing since coming back after a seven-month absence?

I'm not surprised that Nadal has managed a come-back like this. If he didn't have the motivation, he wouldn't have bothered coming back. He still wants to win and I reckon that he can win a few more Grand Slams – fingers crossed, health and fitness permitting. But he's a clever man and he been on the circuit for long enough now to know what he can and can't do. I repeat, he's the man to beat in Paris, and I'm really looking forward to watching him there. You can still see his hunger for victory. He's still enjoying it and having fun. And as I say, getting the better of him on clay is… well, complicated (laughs).



How did you feel when he beat your French Open title record last year?

I was delighted for him. I know Rafa and I like him very much as a person. He really is a great guy, and I was the first to congratulate him! I hope he'll win many more, starting with his eighth French Open title this year! He's incredible, both as a player and a person.
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#4
#4
Murray has withdrawn from the French. Del Potro either already has or is strongly considering withdrawing. Same for Wawrinka.

Based on Nadal's form, I don't blame them. It's his tournament for the taking. No chance even from Djokovic.

The real drama in this year's FO will be answered Friday during the draw. Will Nadal end up in Djokovic's half or Federer's half? A potential Nadal/Djokovic semi-final is ludicrous. It would be epic and "might" just give an opening to the lower half of the draw if they beat each other up in that match.

That being said, I'll take a different approach this year. Here are some players with the game to defeat Nadal on clay, but not the mentality.

(1) Djokovic has the game and the mentality, but not the present form.

(2) Ferrer: definitely has the game and should have beaten Nadal on clay already. He just cannot get over the hump. If he ever did, he could beat Nadal on clay maybe 20% of the time. The problem -- and its a huge one -- is that Ferrer doesn't believe he can beat Nadal on clay. Even with match points he doesn't believe.

(3) Berdych. See Ferrer, above. Also Berdych is such an enigma. He runs hot and cold more than any player I know.

(4) Almagro. See Ferrer, Berdych, above.

(5) Gulbis. Ok, I think you see where Im headed with this. If EG could get his head on straight, he would be a monster force. Good lord. I love his game. What a crazy mo-fo'ing forehand! It's time we had a French Open champion named Ernest!

(6) Dimitrov, Paire, Janowicz. They've all shown signs of brilliance. But best 3 out of 5 sets ain't happening on clay.

No one is beating Nadal this year if he stays healthy.

On the women's side, I hope Azarenka loses. Beyond that, I have no opinion or knowledge.
 
#6
#6
DyronNix said:
Murray has withdrawn from the French. Del Potro either already has or is strongly considering withdrawing. Same for Wawrinka.

Based on Nadal's form, I don't blame them. It's his tournament for the taking. No chance even from Djokovic.

The real drama in this year's FO will be answered Friday during the draw. Will Nadal end up in Djokovic's half or Federer's half? A potential Nadal/Djokovic semi-final is ludicrous. It would be epic and "might" just give an opening to the lower half of the draw if they beat each other up in that match.

That being said, I'll take a different approach this year. Here are some players with the game to defeat Nadal on clay, but not the mentality.

(1) Djokovic has the game and the mentality, but not the present form.

(2) Ferrer: definitely has the game and should have beaten Nadal on clay already. He just cannot get over the hump. If he ever did, he could beat Nadal on clay maybe 20% of the time. The problem -- and its a huge one -- is that Ferrer doesn't believe he can beat Nadal on clay. Even with match points he doesn't believe.

(3) Berdych. See Ferrer, above. Also Berdych is such an enigma. He runs hot and cold more than any player I know.

(4) Almagro. See Ferrer, Berdych, above.

(5) Gulbis. Ok, I think you see where Im headed with this. If EG could get his head on straight, he would be a monster force. Good lord. I love his game. What a crazy mo-fo'ing forehand! It's time we had a French Open champion named Ernest!

(6) Dimitrov, Paire, Janowicz. They've all shown signs of brilliance. But best 3 out of 5 sets ain't happening on clay.

No one is beating Nadal this year if he stays healthy.

On the women's side, I hope Azarenka loses. Beyond that, I have no opinion or knowledge.
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(1) I fully agree on Djokovic

(2) I have to respectfully disagree on Ferrer. I don't think it's mental. I just think that Ferrer is a poor man's Nadal. He's never been able to beat Nadal at his own game.

(3) Berdych has a puncher's chance. He has that big, Soderling-esque game that can handcuff Rafa if played to perfection.

(4) I agree on Almagro. His problem is that he is just so mentally soft. He's the anti-Nadal. The talent is there. He has the shots.

(5) God, I love Ernie. I love his game. I love his candor. I love his devil-may-care attitude. He's great for tennis.

(6) Agree, agree, agree.

Let me add one more.

(7) Kei Nishikori: he might be the best mover on the tour not named Djokovic or Nadal. Some would argue that he doesn't have the weapons needed to take out Nadal, and they're probably right. The problem with beating Nadal is that you have to bully him. You have to hit him off the court. He's not going to beat himself. So, Kei probably isn't going to pull off a five set win against Rafa on clay. But I do like him generally, and I think he should be doing better on the surface, given his game, than he has thus far.
 
#9
#9
Rhyne gets beat today 4-6, 4-6, but still makes the main draw as a lucky loser. Outstanding for him. Remarkably, his first round match is against the very same guy that beat him today -- Michal Przysiezny of Poland. I think that gives Rhyne a lot more motivation heading into this match. Go Rhyne!

The draw is obviously out. Rafa and Djokovic are heading for a semi-final clash (assuming Djoker makes it). The other semi-final could potentially be Federer-Ferrer.

The draw is top heavy simply for the fact that Djokovic and Nadal inhabit it. Early commentators are suggesting Federer has a cake walk path to the final. I disagree. He potentially has to face Gulbis, Berdych or Tsonga. All of whom have given him a bad defeat relatively recently. His path beats having to take a semi-final ass-whoopin' from Nadal (as opposed to the one he would take from Nadal if they both reach the final), but the draw still ain't what I would call easy. I predict Federer exiting in the quarter final.

I haven't studied the draw except for the top players. There may be some potential upsets looming and I'll add to this once I get a good look at the entire draw.
 
#10
#10
I hate that Djokovic and Nadal are on the same side.

Good news for Rhyne. I saw that he lost; didn't he realize he got in as the LL.
 
#15
#15
Top Quadrant:

Novak Djokovic is definitely the favorite to come out of this. He plays Goffin tomorrow and then Dodig/Pella -- either one he'll destroy.

His only real test will come from Grigor Dimitrov in the third round. He gets by that match, I don't see anybody else who has a reasonable chance of beating him.

Second Quadrant:
This is Rafael Nadal's quadrant, and he'll likely come out of it. But it is the toughest quadrant of the draw. Rafa will roll in the second round, but then could come up against the guy who beat him in Wimby last year, Lukas Rosol.

In the fourth round, he'll likely be up against either Benoit Paire or Kei Nishikori. Paire will give him more matchup issues than Kei, but I don't think Paire has the experience to beat him.

In the quarters, he'll likely be up against Stan "the man" Wawrinka, although Jerzey Janowicz and Richard "I love Cocaine" Gasquet are also two possibilities. Smart money is on Stan The Man, and smart money is on Rafa in that matchup.

And then we get the de facto final in the semifinal: Djokovic v. Rafa. Who ya got?

Third Quadrant:
The third quadrant is the most wide open. David Ferrer is most likely to come out of there, but don't count out Gael "the wildcard" Monfils, my second favorite player Ernest Gulbis, Nicolas Almagro, or Kevin Anderson.


Bottom Quadrant:
The bottom quadrant is a gift to Roger Federer. It is really really weak. Federer has the easiest path to the semis of any of the top four players.

Fed will likely get Giles Simon in the fourth round, and this is a good matchup for him. In the quarters, we might see him against Jo Willie Tsonga, a guy who does give him some problems. But there's no guaranteeing Jo Willie makes it that far. If Fed doesn't get Jo Willie in the quarters, he just got handed a gift, because nobody else can beat him in the upper half of that quadrant.

The best player in the world 18 and under advanced to the second round by beating Radek Stepanek. Nick Kyrgios out of Australia. He won the junior australian open and has had success in Futures and Challengers after that. He gets Marin Cilic in the second round. I'm not sure he's gonna be able to win that match, but remember the name Nick Kyrgios. Kid has game.
 
#23
#23
Upon reflection, I should have checked the draw before predicting Bouchard would make some noise this tourney. She ran into Sharapova 2nd round. She's one to watch for in the future, in my opinion.
Nadal dropped set to Klizan before taking him out. I still like Rafa to win it.
 
#24
#24
Raonic is frustrating to watch. Mac just said that his game is one that everyone has been watching for to get to the next level. Watching for, but not seeing.
 
#25
#25
MphsBlues said:
Upon reflection, I should have checked the draw before predicting Bouchard would make some noise this tourney. She ran into Sharapova 2nd round. She's one to watch for in the future, in my opinion.
Nadal dropped set to Klizan before taking him out. I still like Rafa to win it.
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What is so good about this Bouchard girl? I've never heard of her until today.
 
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