Todd Helton and the Hall of Fame

#1
fryeguy93

fryeguy93

Rufus X. Sarsaparilli
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#1
I did some reading last night trying to be as impartial as possible on Todd's CV- if you will

I think he will eventually get it in.

Todd's analogs

Joey Votto
Miguel Cabrera
Harmon Killebrew
Keith Hernandez
Dick Allen
John Olerud
Will Clark
Bill Terry
Hank Greenberg
David Ortiz
George Sisler
Tony Perez

Jason Giambi's PED use has excluded him but Ortiz was able to overcome such stigma with the love he has received from not only New Englanders but many people everywhere. Todd's numbers are actually better than Ortiz's. However, Ortiz had greater spotlight- especially in post season. However, Ortiz played on far better teams. Recall that the Red Sox tried to acquire Helton at least once.

Gehrig 114.1
Pujols 99.6
Foxx 93.1
Bagwell 79.9
Frank Thomas 73.8
Thome 72.9
Palmeiro * 71.9 (PED)
Mize 71.3
Cabrera* 69.1 (active)
Eddie Murray 68.7
McCovey 64.9
Votto* 62.9 (active)
McGwire* 62.2 (PED)
Helton* 61.8
Killebrew 60.4
Keith Hernandez* 60.3
Dick Allen* 58.8
Olerud* 58.1
Will Clark* 56.5
Bill Terry 55.8
Hank Greenberg 55.7
Ortiz 55.3
Sisler 54
Tony Perez 54.00
Fred McGriff* 52.6

Win looking at War7 (top 7 years)
Helton (46.5) sits at 8th on the lists with only Pujols (61.7- 2nd) above him not in HO and just ahead of Joey Votto (46.1-9th) Frank Thomas 45.1. McCovey 44.8. Thome 41.6, Murray 38.9 and Killebrew 38.1 are all behind

WAR5C (best 5 consecutive seasons) Helton is 4th.
WAR3 (top 3 seasons) Helton is 4th
JAWS (Avgs of WAR and War7) is 12th. Which is the highest of any retired 1B not tainted by PED. (Palmeiro ahead and McGwire is behind)

HOF Votes thus far
2019 16.5
2020 29.2
2021 44.9
2022 52.0

So Todd is creeping closer to 75% threshold. David Ortiz was elected in 2022 on 77.9% of ballots.
In 2023; Ortiz, Barry Bonds, Roger Clements, Curt Schilling will not appear on ballot.

Scott Rolen finished above Helton in 2022 but fell short. I suspect Rolen will get in 2023; and possibly Helton. Helton will have an even better chance in 2024 to get over 75%. I surprised Big Papi made in 2022 with the PED cloud. But he did just get in. I think him being off the ballot will be the biggest help for Helton to make it. Rolen and Helton's dWAR is a big help for both.
 
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#4
#4
To answer the OP's question - He will get in. Will probably get in by 2025 or so.

The counting stats and WAR stats probably barely have him in it. If you delve further into some of the advanced stats (those that ballpark adjust), the case gets a little dicier. The lack of team success probably hurts a little as well. It's close but I think he gets in.

Personally speaking, I'm a small HOF guy myself so I wouldn't put him in. He felt like a very good player for his generation but not an all time great. He's close and there are much worse players in the HOF so I wouldn't be upset if he got in.
 
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#5
#5
Even at the height of his career his future legacy was questioned because he played in Colorado. Fair or not, I would bet against his chances for the HOF. It seems like the voters like to glom on to some detail like that and they never let go.
 
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#6
#6
I think he’ll get in, but it will be close. Writers with Hall of Fame ballots and votes are notoriously fickle people. I’ll never get over those who submit ballots with no selections on it some years just to be edgy. It’s impossible to predict what the voters will do, and I honestly wouldn’t mind a recalibration of the process of how you get in to the Hall of Fame.

Just one man’s opinion though.
 
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#7
#7
Hacksaw,If that was the case,then how did so many yankees get in with the short right field porch?
 
#16
#16
"He almost did something that has never been done: Leap from 52 percent last year to election the next. But even though he came up nine votes short, he’s now at 72.2 percent, with five years left on the ballot. So it’s time for him to start renting a bunch of Vrbos in Cooperstown in July 2024, because he’ll be giving a speech! Over the last 50 elections, you know how many players have gotten this close within their first five years on the ballot and not been elected the next year? Right you are. Not a one (11 for 11)."

The Athletic
 
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#17
#17
Oddly, Helton was running ahead in the survey of voters prior to anounclement. I'm surprised that Todd actually finished below 75.

I suspect the voters who did not share their ballots are the old coots who hold Denver against Todd more than the real world voters.

If MLB is putting a team in the Rockies, don't punish the players who are drafted to go there.

He'll get in in 2023.

I bet next year, there will be several votes in Adrián Beltré goes on ballot. I suspect -in some voters' minds, Rolen made it this year so he would not be compared to Beltre in 2023. I suspect Billy Wagner takes a leap as well and will sneak in.

RA did not get to 5% so he falls off. That was a longshot anyway as he lacked the quality years to make it. But what a story! B
Chase Headley goes on ballot next year as well.

I don't understand why Torri Hunter and Mark Buehrle only got 5.3 and 5.8% respectively.
 
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