Top 25 NFL RB in 2019 and their HS recruiting ratings

[PoweredByTheT]

Rankings based without bias on my fantasy league's point system (.5 PPR, .1/yard, 6/TD)

1. Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) - .9593 4* - R1, pick 8
2. Dalvin Cook (Florida State) - .9940 5* - R2, pick 41
3. Aaron Jones (UTEP) - .8093 3* - R5 pick 182
4. Derrick Henry (Alabama) - .9929 5* - R2, pick 45
5. Nick Chubb (Georgia) - .9846 5* - R2, pick 35
6. Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) - .9711 4* - R1, pick 4
7. Austin Ekeler (Western Colorado) - NR - Undrafted
8. Leonard Fournette (LSU) - .9996 5* - R1, pick 4
9. Mark Ingram (Alabama) - .9444 4* - R1, pick 28
10. Josh Jacobs (Alabama) - .8725 3* - R1, pick 24
11. Chris Carson (Oklahoma State) - .8230 3* - R7, pick 249
12. Le'Veon Bell (Michigan State) - .8149 3* - R2, pick 48
13. Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) - .9797 4* - R3, pick 67
14. Phillip Lindsay (Colorado) - .8340 3* - Undrafted
15. Marlon Mack (South Florida) - .8531 3* - R4, pick 143
16. Todd Gurley (Georgia) - .9672 4* - R1, pick 10
17. Latavius Murray (Central Florida) - .8333 3* - R6, pick 181
18. Tevin Coleman (Indiana) - .8686 3* - R3, pick 73
19. James Conner (Pittsburg) - .8370 3* - R3, pick 105
20. Carlos Hyde (Ohio State) - .9078 4* - R2, pick 70
21. Joe Mixon (Oklahoma) - .9907 5* - R2, pick 48
22. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - .9459 4* - R1, pick 2
23. David Montgomery (Iowa State) - .8348 3* - R3, pick 73
24. Jamaal Williams (BYU) - .8335 3* - R4, pick 134
25. Ronald Jones (USC) - .9827 4* - R2, pick 38

5*: 5
4*: 8
3*: 11
NR: 1

Notably Absent from List that would have qualified on a per game basis:
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn) - .9811 4* - R2, pick 43
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) - .8983 4* - R1, pick 15
Devonta Freeman (Florida State) - .9490 4* - R4, pick 103

I hypothesized that this one would fit the bell curve, and for the most part, it does. There's only 1 on the list that got completely overlooked in Austin Ekeler. I do find it interesting that when they miss on the 3* guys, they tend to miss badly (most of the 3*'s were below .8400). Also, most of the 4 star guys are elite 4*'s... there's 9 guys (10 if you lump in Kerryon) that either were officially or could have easily gotten a small bump and been a 5* out of high school. There's definitely a few they just flat out missed on (Lev Bell, I have no clue why Jacobs was a 3*, Aaron Jones seems silly to almost be a 2*, I honestly don't even know how the NFL found Ekeler) but for the most part... they did a decent job of ranking running backs...

Main takeaway I got here: If you get a high 4*-5* back... they will hit way more often than miss... if you get a 3* guy, I don't think it matters at all where they had him ranked at... ("low" 3* vs "high" 3*)

 

[ShawntheSheep]

Rankings based without bias on my fantasy league's point system (.5 PPR, .1/yard, 6/TD)

1. Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) - .9593 4* - R1, pick 8
2. Dalvin Cook (Florida State) - .9940 5* - R2, pick 41
3. Aaron Jones (UTEP) - .8093 3* - R5 pick 182
4. Derrick Henry (Alabama) - .9929 5* - R2, pick 45
5. Nick Chubb (Georgia) - .9846 5* - R2, pick 35
6. Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) - .9711 4* - R1, pick 4
7. Austin Ekeler (Western Colorado) - NR - Undrafted
8. Leonard Fournette (LSU) - .9996 5* - R1, pick 4
9. Mark Ingram (Alabama) - .9444 4* - R1, pick 28
10. Josh Jacobs (Alabama) - .8725 3* - R1, pick 24
11. Chris Carson (Oklahoma State) - .8230 3* - R7, pick 249
12. Le'Veon Bell (Michigan State) - .8149 3* - R2, pick 48
13. Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) - .9797 4* - R3, pick 67
14. Phillip Lindsay (Colorado) - .8340 3* - Undrafted
15. Marlon Mack (South Florida) - .8531 3* - R4, pick 143
16. Todd Gurley (Georgia) - .9672 4* - R1, pick 10
17. Latavius Murray (Central Florida) - .8333 3* - R6, pick 181
18. Tevin Coleman (Indiana) - .8686 3* - R3, pick 73
19. James Conner (Pittsburg) - .8370 3* - R3, pick 105
20. Carlos Hyde (Ohio State) - .9078 4* - R2, pick 70
21. Joe Mixon (Oklahoma) - .9907 5* - R2, pick 48
22. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - .9459 4* - R1, pick 2
23. David Montgomery (Iowa State) - .8348 3* - R3, pick 73
24. Jamaal Williams (BYU) - .8335 3* - R4, pick 134
25. Ronald Jones (USC) - .9827 4* - R2, pick 38

5*: 5
4*: 8
3*: 11
NR: 1

Notably Absent from List that would have qualified on a per game basis:
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn) - .9811 4* - R2, pick 43
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) - .8983 4* - R1, pick 15
Devonta Freeman (Florida State) - .9490 4* - R4, pick 103

I hypothesized that this one would fit the bell curve, and for the most part, it does. There's only 1 on the list that got completely overlooked in Austin Ekeler. I do find it interesting that when they miss on the 3* guys, they tend to miss badly (most of the 3*'s were below .8400). Also, most of the 4 star guys are elite 4*'s... there's 9 guys (10 if you lump in Kerryon) that either were officially or could have easily gotten a small bump and been a 5* out of high school. There's definitely a few they just flat out missed on (Lev Bell, I have no clue why Jacobs was a 3*, Aaron Jones seems silly to almost be a 2*, I honestly don't even know how the NFL found Ekeler) but for the most part... they did a decent job of ranking running backs...

Main takeaway I got here: If you get a high 4*-5* back... they will hit way more often than miss... if you get a 3* guy, I don't think it matters at all where they had him ranked at... ("low" 3* vs "high" 3*)

How many high draft pick players play for championship contending teams? Most of the best teams do not use their high draft picks on running backs. Spending $$ on running backs takes away from using the money on more important areas (especially the lineman who block for them). Good line + 2nd tier running back (draft-wise) better than so-so/mediocre line + top tier running back.

 

[PoweredByTheT]

How many high draft pick players play for championship contending teams? Most of the best teams do not use their high draft picks on running backs. Spending $$ on running backs takes away from using the money on more important areas (especially the lineman who block for them). Good line + 2nd tier running back (draft-wise) better than so-so/mediocre line + top tier running back.

Sony Michel - Patriots (R1 pick)
Alvin Kamara - Saints (R3, pick 3... might as well have been a R2)
Ezekiel Elliott - Cowboys (R1 pick and $$$)
Dalvin Cook - Vikings (R2 pick)
Mark Ingram - Ravens (FA $$$)
Rashaad Penny - Seahawks (R1 pick)
Todd Gurley - Rams (R1 pick and $$$)

Everybody other than the 49ers and Chiefs that have a shot at winning the Super Bowl this year (Packers maybe, but I don't see it) has a top tier back or one they spent a R1/R2 draft pick on. I get what you're saying and I was going to agree until I started listing them all haha... having a 5* all-world RB behind a bottom tier offensive line never won anybody a championship... but there's not a competitive team that has a terrible offensive line... so really it's more of a chicken and egg thing

 

[sjt18]

RB is an easier position to predict.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

It's actually surprising to me how many lower rated players there are in this group. It's about an even split between the blue-chips (4 and 5 stars) and the others (3 stars). Obviously, 4 and 5 stars have a higher probability of succeeding, but for a position that seems as straight-forward to evaluate as RB, still a lot of superstar lower-rated players.

And yes, 3 stars is "lower rated" in many ways. Keep in mind, that most of these recruiting services will assign someone a 3-star rating sight-unseen if a major P5 program offers them. The difference between Austin Ekeler at "NR" and a lot of these 3 stars is merely 1 Power 5 offer.