Top 25 NFL WRs in 2019 and their HS recruiting rankings

[PoweredByTheT]

I was curious myself and I found the results to be pretty interesting. The "Top 25" were selected without bias from the point listings on a .5 PPR fantasy league (with a 3 point bonus for 100-yard games). I may do more of these later for various positions if it seems like there's reasonable interest

1. Michael Thomas (Ohio State) - .8477 3* - R2, pick 47
2. Chris Godwin (Penn State) - .9293 4* - R3, pick 84
3. Mike Evans (Texas A&M)- .8493 3* - R1, pick 7
4. D.J. Chark (LSU) - .8752 3* - R2, pick 61
5. Amari Cooper (Alabama) - .9776 4* - R1, pick 4
6. DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson) - .9156 4* - R1, pick 27
7. Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington) - NR - R3, pick 69
8. Julio Jones (Alabama) - .9992 5* - R1, pick 6
9. Tyler Lockett (Kansas State) - .8497 3* - R3, pick 69
10. Kenny Golladay (Northern Illinois) - NR - R3, pick 96
11. Julian Edelman (Kent State) - .8111 3* - R7, pick 232
12. Stefon Diggs (Maryland) - .9969 5* - R5, pick 146
13. DJ Moore (Maryland) - .8872 3* - R1, pick 24
14. Marvin Jones (California) - .9202 4* - R5, pick 166
15. John Brown (Pittsburg State) - NR - R3, pick 91
16. Jarvis Landry (LSU) - .9922 5* - R2, pick 63
17. Keenan Allen (California) - .9949 5* - R3, pick 76
18. Calvin Ridley (Alabama) - .9932 5* - R1, pick 26
19. Courtland Sutton (SMU) - .8325 3* - R2, pick 40
20. Allen Robinson (Penn State) - .8360 3* - R2, pick 61
21. Michael Gallup (Colorado State) - .8143 3* - R3, pick 81
22. Odell Beckham Jr (LSU) - .9341 4* - R1, pick 12
23. Tyler Boyd (Pittsburg) - .9418 4* - R2, pick 55
24. Terry McLaurin (Ohio State) - .9051 4* - R3, pick 76
25. DeVante Parker (Louisville) - .8865 3* - R1, pick 14

5*'s: 5
4*'s: 7
3*'s: 10
NR's: 3

Edited to add NFL draft positions

 

[VolinArizona]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

 

[PoweredByTheT]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

I have a feeling a RB and QB version of this will sell that narrative pretty profoundly... but I didn't take that from this list at all... 2 of the top 10 weren't even rated, and 3 more in the top 10 would have gotten mixed reactions had they committed to us as "low-3*'s"... the best receiver in football included in that group

That makes half of the 10 best receivers on the planet this year that would have gotten "Why can't we recruit elite WRs" posts littered throughout their recruitment thread

 

[chavisut]

I have a feeling a RB and QB version of this will sell that narrative pretty profoundly... but I didn't take that from this list at all... 2 of the top 10 weren't even rated, and 3 more in the top 10 would have gotten mixed reactions had they committed to us as "low-3*'s"... the best receiver in football included in that group

That makes half of the 10 best receivers on the planet this year that would have gotten "Why can't we recruit elite WRs" posts littered throughout their recruitment thread

Numbers game. There are probably 2-3 5 star WRs a year. There are hundreds of 3 stars.

 

[TrippieRedd]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

5* + 4* = 12 total
3* + NR = 13 total
So actually it means there are more 3*s and NR's. Also, 6 of the top 10 are 3*s.

 

[chavisut]

5* + 4* = 12 total
3* + NR = 13 total
So actually it means there are more 3*s and NR's. Also, 6 of the top 10 are 3*s.

Percentages of 5 stars panning out higher than 4s. 4s much higher than 3s.

 

[sjt18]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

It also confirms there is plenty of talent that doesn't get noticed by the recruiting sites if you have a coach that can evaluate recruits and find the right ones.

 

[SweetasSoda]

I have a feeling a RB and QB version of this will sell that narrative pretty profoundly... but I didn't take that from this list at all... 2 of the top 10 weren't even rated, and 3 more in the top 10 would have gotten mixed reactions had they committed to us as "low-3*'s"... the best receiver in football included in that group

That makes half of the 10 best receivers on the planet this year that would have gotten "Why can't we recruit elite WRs" posts littered throughout their recruitment thread

That's what I got from it.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

I posted something around draft time (at least I think I posted it - definitely saw it) that outlined where the top NFL Draft QB’s this year were all ranked as HS prospects.

It covered several years.

Was pretty telling how many guys were 3 stars. Baker Mayfield was I want to say a 2 star.

Basically confirmed my long standing belief that QB is all about aligning talent with the right system. Joe Montana isn’t Joe Montana in the Air Coryell offense for example. Troy Aikman was considered a bust until Norv Turner got to Dallas.

Match a QB to the system, a good offensive line, and stability and he has a much better chance at success.

Which makes it noteworthy that if (big if) Jake Fromm stays for his senior year, he’ll likely be with his third OC in as many years.

 

[Ashevolle]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

But also confirms that it is not rare for a 3* player to end up being a superstar.

 

[VOLUNTEERSZN]

there’s a ton of talent out there at skill player positions. Receiver, Tailback, Defensive back.. you can find tons of gems out there in the 3 star and unranked guys. They’re the easiest positions to recruit. Where your stars are most important at in my opinion is Quarterback and both sides of the LOS.

 

[PoweredByTheT]

there’s a ton of talent out there at skill player positions. Receiver, Tailback, Defensive back.. you can find tons of gems out there in the 3 star and unranked guys. They’re the easiest positions to recruit. Where your stars are most important at in my opinion is Quarterback and both sides of the LOS.

I'll do the offensive line next... I vehemently disagree with you about ratings of offensive linemen vs NFL viability... 5* guys, sure... but that's with everything... I'm still trying to determine how to select the "Top 25" without bias there though...

I do agree with you about Defensive linemen

 

[BondJamesBond]

Pretty much confirms 4 and 5* are more likely to end up as NFL stars, especially when you consider how many more 3* players there are in the recruiting rankings.

Also confirms that some three stars are better than five stars. So there is that.

 

[m1al]

Ridley don’t count. Didn’t he play for Bama for something like 12 years. Dude has got to be in his mid 30s by now......

 

[Volfan76]

In addition to the fact that there are 10 times the number of 3 stars as 5 stars, one thing stands out to me. You don't see any consistency among these 3 stars and the schools that they go to or the coaches that they play for. That tells me that it is extremely difficult to tell what 3 stars are going to develop into NFL talents. Some might even call it luck. Statistically, a coaches chance of getting a top tier NFL talent out of a 3 star are EXTREMELY low. Show me a school or coach that does it consistently and you may be on to something as far as the "we should be excited about 3 stars" school of thought goes.

 

[Vols410]

But also confirms that it is not rare for a 3* player to end up being a superstar.

It is not rare for a 3* to become a superstar as a whole, but it is still extremely rare on a per-player basis.

 

[bluetick2]

Wow....thats a great look at the numbers. So many of those guys were not even considered major recruits.

Also, I believe this coaching staff has a strong ability to pick up lower rated recruits who can outperform their rankings. Time will tell, but so far so good.

 

[McGeesPub]

I was curious myself and I found the results to be pretty interesting. The "Top 25" were selected without bias from the point listings on a .5 PPR fantasy league (with a 3 point bonus for 100-yard games). I may do more of these later for various positions if it seems like there's reasonable interest

1. Michael Thomas (Ohio State) - .8477 3*
2. Chris Godwin (Penn State) - .9293 4*
3. Mike Evans (Texas A&M)- .8493 3*
4. D.J. Chark (LSU) - .8752 3*
5. Amari Cooper (Alabama) - .9776 4*
6. DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson) - .9156 4*
7. Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington) - NR
8. Julio Jones (Alabama) - .9992 5*
9. Tyler Lockett (Kansas State) - .8497 3*
10. Kenny Golladay (Northern Illinois) - NR
11. Julian Edelman (Kent State) - .8111 3*
12. Stefon Diggs (Maryland) - .9969 5*
13. DJ Moore (Maryland) - .8872 3*
14. Marvin Jones (California) - .9202 4*
15. John Brown (Pittsburg State) - NR
16. Jarvis Landry (LSU) - .9922 5*
17. Keenan Allen (California) - .9949 5*
18. Calvin Ridley (Alabama) - .9932 5*
19. Courtland Sutton (SMU) - .8325 3*
20. Allen Robinson (Penn State) - .8360 3*
21. Michael Gallup (Colorado State) - .8143 3*
22. Odell Beckham Jr (LSU) - .9341 4*
23. Tyler Boyd (Pittsburg) - .9418 4*
24. Terry McLaurin (Ohio State) - .9051 4*
25. DeVante Parker (Louisville) - .8865 3*

5*'s: 5
4*'s: 7
3*'s: 10
NR's: 3

You know what would be relevant? Correlating NFL WR Rankings with their corresponding draft grades. You know what else would be relevant? Correlating All-American teams with recruiting rankings.

Correlating NFL WR rankings with college recruiting rankings means next to nothing.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

5* + 4* = 12 total
3* + NR = 13 total
So actually it means there are more 3*s and NR's. Also, 6 of the top 10 are 3*s.

Yeah, but in a given year there's roughly 30 5 stars, and not many more 4 stars. While the 3 stars are well into the hundreds.


By percentages these numbers "hit" more on the 4/5 stars than on the 3 stars. But if you're pouring sand & marbles into a bottle, you'd expect more sand to end up in the bottle.

 

[Ashevolle]

It is not rare for a 3* to become a superstar as a whole, but it is still extremely rare on a per-player basis.

It's rare for any person to become a superstar on a per person basis.

 

[Vols410]

It's rare for any person to become a superstar on a per person basis.

Right. Just comparing 3* to 5*.

 

[k-town_king]

I'm amazed that people can't grasp that the higher ranked players are much, much more likely to become stars.

 

[PoweredByTheT]

It's silly to compare 5 star players out of high school hitting for NFL talents... they are clearly the most likely to make it and become superstars... they are the most visible, play the best competition, and have earned a name for themselves...

However, the 4* to 3* debate has plenty of merit...

So sure... there's hundreds of "3-star athletes"... but the criteria for a 3-star is .7900-.8900... most power 5 programs are looking at .8400-.8900 which cuts off well over half of those prospects...

There's a lot more obvious garbage in the 3-star rankings... but also quite a few pop off the film and clearly got overlooked by the system...

This year, for example... there's 58 4* WRs and 131 3* .8400+ guys... if you have a solid coaching staff that knows what they're looking for in talent to develop... we'll say 70% of the .8400+ 3*'s aren't a good fit for the program... and 30% of the 4*'s aren't popping off film like the coaches would like to see their senior year... that leaves 39.3 3* and 40.6 4* WRs that are viable fits for the program... factor in school interests, grades, senior production, character concerns, demographics, etc... it whittles down pretty quickly the premier targets to go after...

Also of note... all but one of the .8300+ guys went solid power 5 schools (Ohio State, Penn State, LSU, Texas A&M, Maryland, Kansas State, Louisville)

I just thought it was an interesting mix for being completely unbiased and stat-based... star gazers gonna gaze... a lot of those 3* and NR guys went in the 1st-3rd rounds of the draft

 

[VolinArizona]

5* + 4* = 12 total
3* + NR = 13 total
So actually it means there are more 3*s and NR's. Also, 6 of the top 10 are 3*s.

Yes, but you have to consider how many 3* recruits there are every cycle vs. how many 4s and 5. There ROUGHLY 250-300 4* and 5* but almost 1,000 3*.

 

[chargervol]

Yes, but you have to consider how many 3* recruits there are every cycle vs. how many 4s and 5. There ROUGHLY 250-300 4* and 5* but almost 1,000 3*.

All they tells me is they missed on ranking a rather hefty number of players.
Basically they nail the obvious then their percentages go way down.