Top four SEC finish in doubt?

[ocoandasoc]

The current SEC standings are a bit misleading. Sure, SC and Miss St have wrapped up the #1 and #2 spots. But #3 and #4 and the SEC Tourney byes they represent are up for grabs.

Texas A&M and Kentucky have lofty 9 and 4 conference records. But look at the games they have yet to play... A&M still has Miss St and SC and a road date with a suddenly improved Mississippi team. Kentucky also has to play the Conference's two top rated teams along with Florida. If both these 9 – 4 teams lose two games (seems likely) they'll finish at 10 and 6. Mizzou sits at 8 and 5, and assuming they lose at home Sunday to SC they'll have to beat Ole Miss and Alabama for a best possible finish of 10 and 6.

LSU and Tenn sit at 7 and 6. LSU has the easiest remaining schedule – Georgia, Auburn, and Vandy. But the way they are playing they could win – or – lose all three. But there's a good chance they could win out and finish at 10 – 6. The Lady Vols have games against cellar dwellers Arkansas and Florida. Both winnable games... but then so were Alabama and Georgia. The odds are fairly good that they'll be 9 and 6 heading into the finale at Miss St. But even optimistic LV fans have to figure that a 9 – 7 finish is most likely.

However the season finishes out, they'll be a log-jam at 10 – 6 and 9 – 7. Somebody go find those tie-breaker rules!

 

[gule]

tn loses the next 4 in a row... book it.

 

[508mikey]

Whatever it takes to get a 1st round game vs UConn, Im all for it

 

[LA Vol]

UT is almost certainly out of the top 4. Bye-bye, double bye. With a short bench, the LVs needed it to get to the semis or the finals.

The LVs have already lost to teams worse than Arky and UF, so there are no gimme games left.

 

[meekfan]

The current SEC standings are a bit misleading. Sure, SC and Miss St have wrapped up the #1 and #2 spots. But #3 and #4 and the SEC Tourney byes they represent are up for grabs.

Texas A&M and Kentucky have lofty 9 and 4 conference records. But look at the games they have yet to play... A&M still has Miss St and SC and a road date with a suddenly improved Mississippi team. Kentucky also has to play the Conference's two top rated teams along with Florida. If both these 9 – 4 teams lose two games (seems likely) they'll finish at 10 and 6. Mizzou sits at 8 and 5, and assuming they lose at home Sunday to SC they'll have to beat Ole Miss and Alabama for a best possible finish of 10 and 6.

LSU and Tenn sit at 7 and 6. LSU has the easiest remaining schedule – Georgia, Auburn, and Vandy. But the way they are playing they could win – or – lose all three. But there's a good chance they could win out and finish at 10 – 6. The Lady Vols have games against cellar dwellers Arkansas and Florida. Both winnable games... but then so were Alabama and Georgia. The odds are fairly good that they'll be 9 and 6 heading into the finale at Miss St. But even optimistic LV fans have to figure that a 9 – 7 finish is most likely.

However the season finishes out, they'll be a log-jam at 10 – 6 and 9 – 7. Somebody go find those tie-breaker rules!

I find it kind of sad that we have to project 'other' team's losses to see where we might finish

I'm more concerned that we truly might end up out of the real tourney. The way we are going there sure isn't a guaranty.

 

[Amb3096]

I find it kind of sad that we have to project 'other' team's losses to see where we might finish

I'm more concerned that we truly might end up out of the real tourney. The way we are going there sure isn't a guaranty.

I think a loss here and an early loss in the SECT will sink them.

 

[LA Vol]

Mizzou beating SCAR puts them ahead of the LVs in conference. Mizzou can coast to two more wins, while LVs face MSU. No double bye for the LVs.

 

[LA Vol]

After tonight, the LVs seem set at 6 seed for the SECT. UK is two games ahead, Mizzou is one game ahead and aTm holds the tiebreaker over UT. Mizzou and aTm would have to lose their final games @Bama and @OM, while UT wins @MSU to open the door for the LVs. In that improbable scenario, UT would be a 4 seed via the tiebreaker over Mizzou. Those ridiculous losses to the some of the worst teams in the SEC were so costly.

 

[th2421]

After tonight, the LVs seem set at 6 seed for the SECT. UK is two games ahead, Mizzou is one game ahead and aTm holds the tiebreaker over UT. Mizzou and aTm would have to lose their final games @Bama and @OM, while UT wins @MSU to open the door for the LVs. In that improbable scenario, UT would be a 4 seed via the tiebreaker over Mizzou. Those ridiculous losses to the some of the worst teams in the SEC were so costly.

Yep. Regardless, we'd have to win on Sunday to get up to 4th or 5th.

If Mizzou wins (at Alabama) and Kentucky loses (at South Carolina), who wins the tiebreaker for #3? They split their regular season games. Whoever ends up #3 will likely be our quarterfinal matchup (assuming we get past #11, looking like Alabama or Mississippi...).

 

[LA Vol]

Yep. Regardless, we'd have to win on Sunday to get up to 4th or 5th.

If Mizzou wins (at Alabama) and Kentucky loses (at South Carolina), who wins the tiebreaker for #3? They split their regular season games. Whoever ends up #3 will likely be our quarterfinal matchup (assuming we get past #11, looking like Alabama or Mississippi...).

If UK and Mizzou end up tied with split head-to-heads, I believe the SEC goes best record against 1 seed, then 2 seed, etc. until one team comes out ahead. So it will depend on whether SCAR or MSU wins the SEC and that could be decided by a tiebreaker.

No matter how it shakes out, the LVs no longer control their own destiny and seem destined for a 6 seed. Both UK and Mizzou have come on strong down the stretch while the LVs have floundered. It would be a challenge to beat either team again-- outside TBA. The LVs tend to show up at tournament time, though, so can't ever count them out.

 

[ocoandasoc]

If Mizzou loses (Alabama beat them earlier in the season and the game is in Tuscaloosa) and Tenn beats Miss State, Tenn gets the four seed. There would be a three way tie at 10 -6. The first tie-breaker would have no effect as each has a 2 - 1 record against the other two. The second tie-breaker would eliminate A&M who lost to the top seed (which would be SC if Tenn beats Miss St), and then Tenn wins the heads up with Mizzou.

The Mizzou - Alabama game will be ending as the Lady Vols matchup with Miss St begins, so they'll know what their chances of getting the #4 are in time for it to provide motivation.

Ironically, if Mizzou wins, they might be rooting for Tenn, because a Kentucky loss and a Tenn win would give Mizzou the #3 seed, although I'm not sure that's really more advantageous.