UNC is like Texas in football, they are always preseason top 10, although they don't always deserve it. UNC is really lucky the ACC is having a very bad year, because although they are struggling they should easily finish in the top 5 in the conference. With that being said, I think the ACC will only get 3-4 teams in the tournament this year (Duke, Virginia Tech, FSU, and maybe UNC). I think UNC will finish 18-12 or 17-13, with a very strong RPI. They are going to have to win a few games they are not supposed to in order to get into the tournament, but they should be able to if they play well in the ACC tournament.
They are struggling due to their pg play and lack of shooters on the perimeter. Reggie Bullock is a good shooter and scorer but is slowly adapting to the college game. Harrison Barnes is not as good as advertised. I think Sullinger, T. Jones, Harris, Selby and Irving are all better players. The biggest letdown has been John Henson. He was a top 5 recruit and has done very little to garner being anywhere near a 5 star recruit.
Go Duke!!!