I think that with the big Texas win all you need to make the NCAA is wo games over a .500 record in the SEC (either at end of regular season or including two SEC tourney wins and a loss). From what little I've seen, I think that is very doable this year as long as you don't have any big injuries because depth is an issue for you.
You are 6-1 now, with three cupcakes remaining. Let's say you only win two (although if you lose to Lipscomb just give up). So you start SEC play at 8-2. If you go .500 (with a likely loss in the middle to Memphis), that makes you 16-11. You probably need two more to get in for sure. 17 could do it, depending on what happens in the rest of the conference.