Is is a "judgement" stand-off? Is being wrong about the war but right about the surge better/worse/the same as being right about the war but wrong about the surge?
I think you've hit the nail on the head.
The war has been sticky from the beginning. And it continues to be sticky. And who knows what's going to happen over the coming months and especially when we start pulling troops out? KB's right - it's dishonest of any of us to say what's going to happen for sure.
I respect McCain's consistency on the war and the surge. I disagree with him that we should've started the war in the first place, but he's been firm on military strategy from the beginning: if we're going to do it right, we need to send a larger force, has been his basic message. Military strategy is an asset for the POTUS, but IMO it's not a necessity. More important, a president should assess what's in the country's absolute highest interests and only commit to war when our most important interests are threatened -- namely, national security. It's now clear to me that Saddam Hussein did not threaten our national security.
I see eye to eye with Obama in this regard and believe a president who doesn't have military experience is still capable of entrusting military strategy to those who are indeed experts.
But back to Iraq: Iraq once was Obama's most powerful weapon. His supporters (me included) were probably naive to give him too much credit for that, but I still respect his wisdom to see it as the wrong move for his country, despite the most recent developments there. Of course, if you still think we should've gone into Iraq in the first place, you likely will be buttressed by the latest news and use it to reaffirm your vote for McCain.
I guess the bottom line is that we believe what we want to believe, and these developments might not have as big an impact on the race as we think. Both candidates undoubtedly will use it to show that they had better judgment, and we have to decide how much that matters to us as voters.