Vegas

#1
Orange And Garnet

Orange And Garnet

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#1
What does Vegas see that we don't? I understand this series has a history of being close and we are at home and Georgia is coming off of a huge game but only a 10 point dog to the number 6 team in the country seems super low.
 
#7
#7
With Georgia riding high off of an LSU win, and with their star running back most likely sitting this one out, we have a perfect opportunity to pull off the upset. Georgia's defense is weak, and they have some major issues in their secondary. The key is, can Worley take advantage of those issues and find his rhythm to have a standout game? If he can piece it all together for 4 quarters, and play mistake free, I think we win.
 
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#8
#8
TrueOrange said:
Lines are more about how people bet and those in charge making money off that.
Click to expand...

Vegas wants money on both sides of a line .. so they try to start as close as they can to a number that people will bet both sides and move it if more money is bet on one side or the other.

That's why it make no sense that UGA is only a 10 point favorite, can't believe they are getting any money on Tennessee
 
#10
#10
SlipKidVol said:
Vegas wants money on both sides of a line .. so they try to start as close as they can to a number that people will bet both sides and move it if more money is bet on one side or the other.

That's why it make no sense that UGA is only a 10 point favorite, can't believe they are getting any money on Tennessee
Click to expand...

This!

The line has to initially be set and they hope it is set correctly. Oregon going from -20 to -28 is very odd.

So yes, they want money bet evenly on both sides. But, if the initial line is set incorrectly, Vegas will lose it a$$.
 
#11
#11
I have recently started following sports betting and wondering which sites are the best? Does anyone have any suggestions? I have read a lot about the debate of it being illegal or legal and that some places may not want to pay out if needed.
 
#13
#13
rob22278 said:
I have recently started following sports betting and wondering which sites are the best? Does anyone have any suggestions? I have read a lot about the debate of it being illegal or legal and that some places may not want to pay out if needed.
Click to expand...

I've used Bovada (formerly Bodog) for several years. Good customer service and if a pay out is requested it takes only two or three days to receive a check via FedEx. (They accept Visa, too.)
 
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#15
#15
AllVolForLife_16 said:
With Georgia riding high off of an LSU win, and with their star running back most likely sitting this one out, we have a perfect opportunity to pull off the upset. Georgia's defense is weak, and they have some major issues in their secondary. The key is, can Worley take advantage of those issues and find his rhythm to have a standout game? If he can piece it all together for 4 quarters, and play mistake free, I think we win.
Click to expand...

I guess the bettors forgot about last year when Keith Marshall broke 2 60+ yard runs against us
 
#17
#17
TrueOrange said:
Lines are more about how people bet and those in charge making money off that.
Click to expand...

This line opened at 10.5 and has actually gone down to 10. Very odd, the sharks know something we don't. Maybe they know Fergburger is coming in after half and is the next Johnny football.
 
#18
#18
TrueOrange said:
Lines are more about how people bet and those in charge making money off that.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to be an a@$, but that is not how Vegas operates. They want every game to be a push. That's why juice (% to bet) is implemented.

Also, 90% of the bets to Vegas will be outside the states of TN and GA. So how ppl bet implies emotion.

Vegas is pretty good at being around the final score. The line is based on what Vegas thinks the differential in final score will be...nothing more nothing less.
 
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#19
#19
I hope Vegas knows what they are talking about and that this game is close. If we're in it the 4th qtr. I hope the crowd is insane and gives this team the little extra juice it needs to shock the world.
 
#20
#20
WallyBalls said:
Interesting.

How many points is UGA being awarded based on what happened last year?
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He said the spread was low with a factor of Gurley being out. And I stated that I guess the didn't remember Keith Marshall last year. Do you trust the vols on the edges against Keith Marshall?????
 
#21
#21
SlipKidVol said:
Vegas wants money on both sides of a line .. so they try to start as close as they can to a number that people will bet both sides and move it if more money is bet on one side or the other.

That's why it make no sense that UGA is only a 10 point favorite, can't believe they are getting any money on Tennessee
Click to expand...

I think the official line has gone up to 11 now, which means that UGA was getting the lion's share of bets. I'd predict that it may go up another 1/2 to 1 point tomorrow also, which would indicate more of the same.
 
#22
#22
17 1/2 seems like what it should be. If I was objective I would bet UGA all day long.
 
#23
#23
Giveem6 said:
I guess the bettors forgot about last year when Keith Marshall broke 2 60+ yard runs against us
Click to expand...

Are you really going to compare last year's defense to this years? We've improved significantly. Aside from the Oregon game, which was due to lack of overall depth, our defense has played great when the offense is productive. Our offense has to compliment the defense. We can't keep them on the field all day long.
 
#24
#24
Vegas sets the lines on how they feel they can make the most money. It's simple if you look at the variations of how the public bets and most of the time as a true bettor you want to fade the public.
 
#25
#25
KnoxVegas said:
I'm not trying to be an a@$, but that is not how Vegas operates. They want every game to be a push. That's why juice (% to bet) is implemented.

Also, 90% of the bets to Vegas will be outside the states of TN and GA. So how ppl bet implies emotion.

Vegas is pretty good at being around the final score. The line is based on what Vegas thinks the differential in final score will be...nothing more nothing less.
Click to expand...

That is not correct. Vegas does want a push as you stated, but they don't want a push on the final score, they want a push on the amount bet on each side and they very much take into consideration how people bet. For example, you cannot get a true line on a Yankees, Cowboys, Steelers, Patriots game because people bet them so heavy.
I think the reason the line is so low is that the Sharps (big money bettors) were a lean to Tennessee because Georgia is in what they'd consider a really bad spot this week, on the road after a very emotional win without their best RB. Therefore if the line were 17 the professional gamblers would be all over Tennessee this week. The line has been set there to make them think twice. Vegas will not take enough bets from the normal public on this game to effect the line, so this line is designed to keep guys from betting Tennessee. Great value on UGA here!
 
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