Wagering on the tournament

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
So, in Florida sports betting is now legal through certain apps. I have never been a big sports bettor, I confess I don't know enough. I'm small time.

But about 5-6 weeks ago futures appeared for teams to make it to the FF, and where things have ended up is very interesting to me. Without looking it up, take a guess at what these two futures would pay. I think you will find it interesting:

I bet $10 on Tennessee to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I bet $12 on the Gators to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I'll post the actual numbers here in a little bit, because then I want to compare the relative values of the two wagers at this point in the season.
 
#4
#4
lawgator1 said:
So, in Florida sports betting is now legal through certain apps. I have never been a big sports bettor, I confess I don't know enough. I'm small time.

But about 5-6 weeks ago futures appeared for teams to make it to the FF, and where things have ended up is very interesting to me. Without looking it up, take a guess at what these two futures would pay. I think you will find it interesting:

I bet $10 on Tennessee to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I bet $12 on the Gators to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I'll post the actual numbers here in a little bit, because then I want to compare the relative values of the two wagers at this point in the season.
Click to expand...

You should check out my post from here. I have done the math on a pretty logical bet for this year. The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread


I think you could also extrapolate this using Kenpom because since 2002 a team with Top 40 Ken Pom offense and top 25 Ken Pom defense has won the Big Dance.
 
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#5
#5
By this time of year, you’ll typically get better odds running a six way open parlay and just ML betting your preferred team each round of the tourney - or just ML betting your unit and rolling the winnings each round on that same team. Obviously more trouble than $10 is worth to most on here, but if you’re betting big $$ on UT to win the tourney (or any other team) then something to think about.
 
#6
#6
Ok, so here are the actual numbers.

$10 on UT to make the FF, pays $40 if they do.

$12 on UF to make the FF, pays $372 if they do.

So UT was 3-1, UF was 30 to 1.

Personally, in terms of return, the UF bet is waaaaaaayyy better. I don't think that UT has ten times the chance to make the FF as UF does. Now of course seeding is everything. Injuries. And on and on. But just on the face of it the UF bet in terms of return times likelihood seems to me to be the much better value.
 
#9
#9
#14
#14
Why doesn't anyone ever come back and tell how going down this sports wagering path wrecked them? Have you noticed how people constantly talk @ what they won? But, when they wreck their finances the embarrassment is too much to deal with.
A friend of mine lost his home and nearly his marriage a few years back doing this. Be careful friends.
 
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#15
#15
livefaith said:
Why doesn't anyone ever come back and tell how going down this sports wagering path wrecked them? Have you noticed how people constantly talk @ what they won? But, when they wreck their finances the embarrassment is too much to deal with.
A friend of mine lost his home and nearly his marriage a few years back doing this. Be careful friends.
Click to expand...

If you aren’t doing it for fun, you shouldn’t be doing it. I think some people hit a lucky streak and think they can do this to earn an actual income or get rich.

Wrong. The quants in Vegas who set these lines are smarter than you. Might as well accept it.

I know a total of one person that earns a full time income off sports betting. This person happens to be a quant themselves. Has no real interest in sports. And is on the autism spectrum.
 
#16
#16
omghulkhands said:
If you aren’t doing it for fun, you shouldn’t be doing it. I think some people hit a lucky streak and think they can do this to earn an actual income or get rich.

Wrong. The quants in Vegas who set these lines are smarter than you. Might as well accept it.

I know a total of one person that earns a full time income off sports betting. This person happens to be a quant themselves. Has no real interest in sports. And is on the autism spectrum.
Click to expand...
Probably a genius
 
#18
#18
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea
Click to expand...
Excellent point you made. I was wondering about that as everyone looks at the numbers that include the tournament but that’s not what matters. What matters is what it looked like at 6pm on Selection Sunday. Other than that, yes, teams that are good at both offense and defense win more than ones that aren’t. Ground breaking!
 
#20
#20
livefaith said:
Why doesn't anyone ever come back and tell how going down this sports wagering path wrecked them? Have you noticed how people constantly talk @ what they won? But, when they wreck their finances the embarrassment is too much to deal with.
A friend of mine lost his home and nearly his marriage a few years back doing this. Be careful friends.
Click to expand...
I remember the old poker machines at gas stations back in the day. Everybody that played them went around bragging about how much they won. I had a secret conversation with one of the owners of these machines. He said they are set to bring in three dollars for every one they pay out. In other words these idiots were just throwing away a bunch of grocery money but believed they were winning.
 
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#21
#21
lawgator1 said:
$10 on UT to make the FF, pays $40 if they do.

$12 on UF to make the FF, pays $372 if they do.
Click to expand...


Updated odds

$10 on UT to make the FF would pay $36, as opposed to the $40 when wager was placed.

$12 on UF now pays just $180, as opposed to the $372 when the wager was made.
 
#22
#22
omghulkhands said:
If you aren’t doing it for fun, you shouldn’t be doing it. I think some people hit a lucky streak and think they can do this to earn an actual income or get rich.

Wrong. The quants in Vegas who set these lines are smarter than you. Might as well accept it.

I know a total of one person that earns a full time income off sports betting. This person happens to be a quant themselves. Has no real interest in sports. And is on the autism spectrum.
Click to expand...
James Holzhauer of Jeooardy fame.

If you bet the traditional 11 to win 10 the House advantage is right at 5%. You have to be right 53% of the time to finish slightly ahead. I dont know about the money line.

Slots are the worst bet thats why you see so many of them!😀
 
#23
#23
I will say this - in the first weekend - if you take every single underdog plus the points - with no regard for the teams playing - including against us - you should do pretty well…. :)
 
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#24
#24
And I’ll also echo what was mentioned above - if you are losing enough money to even notice, then you are betting too much and better have a conversation with yourself real quick. Gambling addiction is very real - and just as alcoholism, can - and will- wreck you. The high from the “action” is an escape from reality just like a big fat line of blow. And that can take you down into a place you don’t ever wanna be real damn fast.
 
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#25
#25
lawgator1 said:
So, in Florida sports betting is now legal through certain apps. I have never been a big sports bettor, I confess I don't know enough. I'm small time.

But about 5-6 weeks ago futures appeared for teams to make it to the FF, and where things have ended up is very interesting to me. Without looking it up, take a guess at what these two futures would pay. I think you will find it interesting:

I bet $10 on Tennessee to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I bet $12 on the Gators to make the Final Four. What do you think it will pay, what do you think it should pay?

I'll post the actual numbers here in a little bit, because then I want to compare the relative values of the two wagers at this point in the season.
Click to expand...
$22? You should have bought a bottle of Buffalo Trace with that money instead of tossing it into the toilet.
 
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