McCat
Rent free in your head
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https://blogs.emory.edu/sportsmarke...rafted-in-the-nfl-go-to-kentucky-not-alabama/
In the 2012 NFL draft, the first round selections included multiple players from Alabama, USC, LSU and Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide had 4 of the first 25 picks! To hardcore college football fans, these first round draft results are expected since colleges like Alabama and USC are perennial members of the lists of top recruiting classes.
A statistical analysis of draft picks versus college recruiting rankings confirms this simple story. A regression analysis of the number of picks selected from a given school versus the number of five-star, four-star, and three-star players in the schools recruiting class reveals a significant positive relationship between the number of players drafted and the number of four and five-star recruits. The relationship between three-star recruits and draft picks is insignificant. Specifically, we found that every five-star player signed by a school translates to 0.33 draft picks, and every four-star player translates to approximately 0.09 draft picks. If we examine only players selected in the first three rounds of the draft, then each five-star recruit produces 0.23 picks and each four-star recruit results in 0.05 picks.
While the preceding results provide evidence that fans should be happy about recruiting victories, the story from the high school recruits perspective is far more complex. That each five-star player only results in 0.33 picks obviously suggests that there is a great deal of error in the rankings. However, an additional explanation is that a players draft outcome may be adversely impacted by joining programs with many other highly rated recruits.
To explain the situation, we performed several additional analyses that examined the conversion rate of college recruits to drafted players. For these analyses, the measure of interest was the number of NFL draft picks from a school divided by the total number of four and five-star recruits signed by the school. We then modeled this conversion rate by the number of five, four and three-star players signed by the school. In this analysis, we found a significant negative relationship between the number of four-star prospects and the draft conversion rate of high ranked prospects. When we limited the draft picks to only round one or only day one (rounds 1-3), this negative relationship persisted.
To further illustrate this point, lets examine two schools. Over the last six NFL drafts, the University of Florida has brought in one hundred four and five-star recruits, and had only twenty-nine players drafted. The average recruiting class rank for the Gators over this period was 6.1. In contrast, the University of Pittsburgh brought in twenty-five four and five-star prospects but had seventeen draft picks. Pitts average recruiting rank was 32.
The following chart shows the draft pick conversion rate for a variety of schools. Interestingly, over the last six drafts, the most effective school at converting prospects to picks is the University of Kentucky. Kentucky actually produced more draft picks than the number of four and five star prospects they recruited. At the other extreme, Florida State only produced about 0.2 draft picks per elite recruit.
In the 2012 NFL draft, the first round selections included multiple players from Alabama, USC, LSU and Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide had 4 of the first 25 picks! To hardcore college football fans, these first round draft results are expected since colleges like Alabama and USC are perennial members of the lists of top recruiting classes.
A statistical analysis of draft picks versus college recruiting rankings confirms this simple story. A regression analysis of the number of picks selected from a given school versus the number of five-star, four-star, and three-star players in the schools recruiting class reveals a significant positive relationship between the number of players drafted and the number of four and five-star recruits. The relationship between three-star recruits and draft picks is insignificant. Specifically, we found that every five-star player signed by a school translates to 0.33 draft picks, and every four-star player translates to approximately 0.09 draft picks. If we examine only players selected in the first three rounds of the draft, then each five-star recruit produces 0.23 picks and each four-star recruit results in 0.05 picks.
While the preceding results provide evidence that fans should be happy about recruiting victories, the story from the high school recruits perspective is far more complex. That each five-star player only results in 0.33 picks obviously suggests that there is a great deal of error in the rankings. However, an additional explanation is that a players draft outcome may be adversely impacted by joining programs with many other highly rated recruits.
To explain the situation, we performed several additional analyses that examined the conversion rate of college recruits to drafted players. For these analyses, the measure of interest was the number of NFL draft picks from a school divided by the total number of four and five-star recruits signed by the school. We then modeled this conversion rate by the number of five, four and three-star players signed by the school. In this analysis, we found a significant negative relationship between the number of four-star prospects and the draft conversion rate of high ranked prospects. When we limited the draft picks to only round one or only day one (rounds 1-3), this negative relationship persisted.
To further illustrate this point, lets examine two schools. Over the last six NFL drafts, the University of Florida has brought in one hundred four and five-star recruits, and had only twenty-nine players drafted. The average recruiting class rank for the Gators over this period was 6.1. In contrast, the University of Pittsburgh brought in twenty-five four and five-star prospects but had seventeen draft picks. Pitts average recruiting rank was 32.
The following chart shows the draft pick conversion rate for a variety of schools. Interestingly, over the last six drafts, the most effective school at converting prospects to picks is the University of Kentucky. Kentucky actually produced more draft picks than the number of four and five star prospects they recruited. At the other extreme, Florida State only produced about 0.2 draft picks per elite recruit.
