War in Ukraine

#50,726
#50,726
PKT_VOL said:
Once Kerson is officially liberated, the next phase of this war will be interesting.

Does Ukraine cross the Dnipro river in the Kerson region or do they keep a small artillery force in the region to hit targets on the other side of the river while sending their infantry to another axis?
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#50,727
#50,727
PKT_VOL said:
Once Kerson is officially liberated, the next phase of this war will be interesting.

Does Ukraine cross the Dnipro river in the Kerson region or do they keep a small artillery force in the region to hit targets on the other side of the river while sending their infantry to another axis?
Click to expand...

Good question. I'd be shocked if UKR were to try to cross at Kherson. That'd be suicide.

I'd aim to cut off the primary supply routes to Crimea and Kherson regions. Mass an armored offensive to Berdiansk or east of Melitopol all the way to the Sea of Azov. That'd cut one route. Then find a way to hit the car and railway bridges at Kerch. As of right now 2 out of the 4 lanes on the bridge are out, and 1 out of the 2 rail lines is out. I'd say ATACMS, but we're hesitant to give them those. Truck/Car bombs are now probably impossible. Underwater drones probably ineffective. I don't know... maybe the NATO long range cruise missiles that Poland is reportedly now mounting to Ukrainian aircraft or Neptune missiles.

At any rate, if the Crimean bridge were clipped - coupled with an offensive that bisects Ukraine, Russian troops in Crimea/Kherson would be in an absolute world of hurt.
 
#50,729
#50,729
The next time you have a bad day, keep this in mind...

Russian trooper managed to catch a large mortar right in the chest. Didn't explode.

Was still alive at least when this was snapped.

1fs5q3owe6z91.jpg
 
#50,731
#50,731
PKT_VOL said:
Once Kerson is officially liberated, the next phase of this war will be interesting.

Does Ukraine cross the Dnipro river in the Kerson region or do they keep a small artillery force in the region to hit targets on the other side of the river while sending their infantry to another axis?
Click to expand...
I think a direct attack across the Dniepro would be suicide. Move across elsewhere abd come in from the North East where they have advances going now. Cut off the Azov coastal supply routes to Kherson
 
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#50,733
#50,733
The White House dropped this bombshell yesterday.

We've *already* given Ukraine some ATACMS 160-mile range missiles.

Explains how UKR hit that Crimean airbase and the Crimean Bridge. But it also raises a sh*t ton of questions... like why they didn't take the bridge out with just a couple more hits.

Curious indeed.

But overall, great news!

20221110_153843.jpg
 
#50,735
#50,735
MontyPython said:
(1) The level of Russian troop / equipment losses is ramping up to absurd levels. The new conscripts apparently are simply no match for the UKR military. Plus, Ukraine is getting more and more surface to air power. Combined, the net trajectory is towards a cliff for Putin. He'll hold on until he doesn't, then the entire operation collapses.

(2) Actually, once the winter sets in, armor does very well and offenses can and will occur. The Pentagon is feeding Ukraine not only the hardware to destroy Russian troops but also actionable intelligence. Once Kerson is secured and the Raputitsa complete, I'd expect a significant Ukrainian offensive... I'd guess straight SE towards the Azov Sea - effectively cutting the occupied areas in half.

(3) The conscripts and prisoners are, to date, pathetic. If Putin manages to hold out until a good portion of the conscripts are adequately trained instead of immediately mobilized, then he holds out to Spring.

Just my $0.02.
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1. Doesnt change the facts of the war. Russia still holds Ukrainian territory. Russia still has plenty of assets. If Putin is really up against a wall he will go until nothing is left. So him being in the red isnt a deal breaker.
2. We have seen winter shut down armor before in this region. And as Ukraine has proven, armor without good infantry support is meaningless and their armor would suffer high losses. I dont see them reaching the sea this winter. It's really difficult to move fast. As much as the Dnieper has been working in their favor it will now be going against them.
3. Its November, Ukraine isnt going to win this war before the Steppe Winter really kicks in. That gives Putin plenty of time. Even if they did lose all of their held territory Russia would be starting off on their own border. Hardly a negative for them. Especially as Ukraine is going to have to rebuild the infrastructure they destroyed while the Russians held that territory. No bridge for the russians to retreat across means no bridge for Ukraine to bring supplies over. That's why I was asking about hover craft. If Ukraine is not careful they could fall into their own trap. It's one of those situations where if it works you look like a genius, but you arent changing the war. if it doesnt work you are a fool and may have just lost the war.
 
#50,736
#50,736
Ukrainian forces have entered Kherson liberation is close. Going to watch closely to see if the Russians blow the Kakhovka damn and flood the area to cover their retreat.
 
#50,738
#50,738
JuicyBrucey said:
I get the idea of picking a side and rooting for them. I just don't understand bankrolling a foreign war that doesn't affect the USA when so many American neighborhoods, urban and rural alike, are poorer and more crime-riddled than any of the neighborhoods in the developed countries.
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JuicyBrucey said:
I get the idea of picking a side and rooting for them. I just don't understand bankrolling a foreign war that doesn't affect the USA when so many American neighborhoods, urban and rural alike, are poorer and more crime-riddled than any of the neighborhoods in the developed countries.
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You may be able to get rid of some of the crime, but cannot legislate the poor into prosperity, nor can you feed them dollars and expect them to better themselves.
 
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#50,739
#50,739
MontyPython said:
Good question. I'd be shocked if UKR were to try to cross at Kherson. That'd be suicide.

I'd aim to cut off the primary supply routes to Crimea and Kherson regions. Mass an armored offensive to Berdiansk or east of Melitopol all the way to the Sea of Azov. That'd cut one route. Then find a way to hit the car and railway bridges at Kerch. As of right now 2 out of the 4 lanes on the bridge are out, and 1 out of the 2 rail lines is out. I'd say ATACMS, but we're hesitant to give them those. Truck/Car bombs are now probably impossible. Underwater drones probably ineffective. I don't know... maybe the NATO long range cruise missiles that Poland is reportedly now mounting to Ukrainian aircraft or Neptune missiles.

At any rate, if the Crimean bridge were clipped - coupled with an offensive that bisects Ukraine, Russian troops in Crimea/Kherson would be in an absolute world of hurt.
Click to expand...

I hadn't heard that. That's a big blow to Russia if enough are supplied.
 
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#50,744
#50,744
MontyPython said:
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Seriously dude. Just stop your blathering.
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Along with many economic think tanks/organizations, major investment bank analysts, the CBO, a plethora of PhD's, etc. that have commented and written on this subject in the same manner as the articles below, like thousands of others, see it differently than you. You say you have a Masters in Economics and you may (?), but these people do it for a living and have for decades. They all point to our current debt levels as one of the biggest drivers of our inflationary environment and the problems it is manifesting within our economy. Throw in our unfunded liabilities an obligations, the debt soars to around $200 Trillion currently. Some of these are older articles too. One from 2019 highlights Jerome Powell's serious concern regarding the national debt and it's trajectory, but I guess you know more than the Fed? I have just a Bachelors in Economics (Business major), but I read and study the people that know a whole lot more than I do. Anyone saying this level of debt and the trajectory of it is not a serious problem right now, is simply whistling past the grave yard.

'A major problem': The US is now a record $31 trillion in debt, made worse by rising interest rates — and this is who holds the IOUs

Top 10 Reasons Why the National Debt Matters

US National Debt by Year - Stats & Facts | Balancing Everything

Our $23 Trillion National Debt: An Inter-generational Injustice | Bush Center

U.S. National Debt Tops $31 Trillion for First Time

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/fed...-worried-about-growing-amount-of-us-debt.html
 
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