We Should Beat Mizzou - We Are Getting No Respect

[Rifleman]

Post-game: And I eat my yummy yummy crow.

I have heard one preview after another of tomorrow's game where the commentator sagely pronounces that Mizzou will easily whip us.

One reason given on a program last night: because Tennessee ranks 83rd in total defense and won't be able to stop Mizzou's offense.

Mizzou's defensive front was also invoked, but I have already given evidence why they are overrated here:

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/207144-mizzous-run-defense-overrated.html

To rebut the pundits, I want to focus on our defensive improvements this year as well as the fact that we are getting no credit for our strength of schedule.

People are dissing us because of our showing at Oregon and Alabama . . . as if Mizzou would have won those games? UCLA just lost by 4 TDs at Oregon. Would they be heavy underdogs versus Mizzou? Further, even if we remove these games from our schedule, we have still played as tough a schedule as Mizzou.

So where would we rank in the FBS in the major defensive categories if we exclude the Alabama and Oregon games?

Total Defense
Vols - 366 ypg - 33rd
Mizzou - 395.6 ypg 66th

Rushing Defense
Vols - 176 ypg - 76th
Mizzou - 111.4 ypg - 16th

Passing Defense
Vols - 190 ypg - 14th
Mizzou - 284.3 ypg - 112th

Scoring Defense
Vols - 21.7 - 29th
Mizzou - 22.8 - 35th

I think the stats above provide a valid comparison because they include games against Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina for both sides as well as the soft underbellies of both schedules.

We are not the team that was giving up massive yardage to the Troy's of the world last year.

We have a significantly better pass defense than Mizzou, but who doesn't? They have a better rush defense. All in all, there is no reason we should be scared of these guys, play tentative, and get ourselves into an early hole. This is a game where we are not being given a chance to win, but I think we have a lot of advantages the casual pundits are dismissing. I don't think Maty Mauk or a gimpy Franklin can beat us.

Go Vols!

Edit: A good example of what I'm talking about. Every "expert" but Bruce Feldman on CBS Sports is picking us not to be able to cover a 12.5 point spread. So they all feel it is more likely that we'll lose by 13 or more, than not? I don't think there is any validity in that viewpoint.

Expert Picks - Against the Spread - Week 10 - CBSSports.com

Pre-game update: I just wanted to thank everyone who has voted in the poll and participated in the debate on both sides of this. Lots of really good points on both sides.

 

[OrangeWayOfLife]

I actually believe we win this game by double digits. One stat I would love to know is the average weight of their d line vs average weight of our o line

 

[oregonvol]

Missouri beat two teams that beat us. They have lost one game this year, on a missed field goal in overtime. We are playing them at their place. We are starting a true freshman quarterback who hasn't completed more than 5 passes so far. It's no surprise they're favored.

 

[VolFanHenry]

They have a better rush defense.

IMO that is why most people are saying that. We are a rushing team and they have a good rush defense. I'm afraid Dobbs won't be beating them through the air, especially if many of our butterfinger receivers keep dropping passes.

 

[vol2002]

Mizzou's a good team, guys. They aren't perfect- but neither are we. Our lack of speed and depth will result in them winning and likely covering the spread.

Doesn't matter, though. We'll make a bowl game, land a top 5 class, and stomp them for years to come.

 

[RollerVol]

Talking heads usually state the status quo. They are discounting our secret weapon, Josh Dobbs.
I know we can win and I believe the seniors will get behind Josh and play lights out! They know this is an important game for the continued success of the season.
Vols by 7.
GO VOLS!

 

[gnm53108]

IMO that is why most people are saying that. We are a rushing team and they have a good rush defense. I'm afraid Dobbs won't be beating them through the air, especially if many of our butterfinger receivers keep dropping passes.

imo that will improve tomorrow....hopefully alot.

 

[BanditVol]

We are not the team that was giving up massive yardage to the Troy's of the world last year.



Go Vols!

Well yeah, we are much better on D. It's difficult to be worse. Thank God last year is over with!

The question is whether they have as bad a half against us as they did last year. We limited them in the first half pretty well, but (as usual) fell apart in the second.

One trend with Butch in most of our games is that the team gets better as the game rolls on. Let's keep it close at halftime. We do that, we have em.

I would not have said that last year. I would have been SMH and dreading the second half.

Not this year! :good!:

 

[BanditVol]

Missouri beat two teams that beat us. They have lost one game this year, on a missed field goal in overtime. We are playing them at their place. We are starting a true freshman quarterback who hasn't completed more than 5 passes so far. It's no surprise they're favored.

The OP is not upset that they are favored...just thinks the line is too high.

 

[Backwards K]

--Tennesse hasn't won a meaningful road game since Fulmer.
--Tennessee is starting a Fr QB who has played exactly 1/2 of a game in mop up duty
--Mizzou has lost one game all year and are highly ranked
--Mizzou is faster than UT at all of the skilled positions
--Tenn is inexperienced at corner and both safeties are banged up.

Yeah, I have no idea why Mizzou is favored in this game nor can I understand why anyone would pick them to win the game. The Vols have a chance but it would be an upset if they win.

 

[govols/cc]

Oregon thread déjà vu.

 

[fade route]

I actually believe we win this game by double digits. One stat I would love to know is the average weight of their d line vs average weight of our o line

Doesn't mean much.....we outweighed Oregon significantly and you can see where that got us. Technique and discipline > weight differential.

 

[Rifleman]

Missouri beat two teams that beat us. They have lost one game this year, on a missed field goal in overtime. We are playing them at their place. We are starting a true freshman quarterback who hasn't completed more than 5 passes so far. It's no surprise they're favored.

Georgia had four silly TOs against Mizzou. They won the TO battle against us. That's the only difference I see.

As for Florida, we imploded in a game we easily could have won.

Dobbs led a TD drive against Bama. He is certainly capable of putting up points on Mizzou. He has to take care of the football, but I have no evidence that he won't do that. He seemed to have very good location on his passes against Bama.

 

[OrangeWayOfLife]

Doesn't mean much.....we outweighed Oregon significantly and you can see where that got us. Technique and discipline > weight differential.

Missouri is nothing close to Oregon

 

[oregonvol]

The OP is not upset that they are favored...just thinks the line is too high.

But didn't Missouri beat both Florida and Georgia by more points than the spread against us Saturday? And we've only covered in one loss so far, right? I don't see the disrespect, I think it's just a matter of the experts using recent history and playing the percentages. I hope they're wrong, but I don't really see the disrespect.

 

[YankeeVol]

Mizzou should be favored. 10 is about right

 

[Col_Cathcart]

I actually believe we win this game by double digits. One stat I would love to know is the average weight of their d line vs average weight of our o line

Their d-line:

DE 52 Michael Sam 6-3 255 Sr.
55 Brayden Burnett 6-2 245 Sr.

DT 89 Matt Hoch 6-5 295 Jr.
90 Harold Brantley 6-3 300 RFr.

NT 96 Lucas Vincent 6-2 295 Jr.
94 Marvin Foster 6-1 290 Sr.

DE 47 Kony Ealy 6-5 275 Jr.
56 Shane Ray 6-4 245 So.

 

[golf437]

Missouri is nothing close to Oregon

Mizz. Is better than Tenn. We will need some breaks to win this game.

 

[VolunteerTitan3]

I thought we would take this one home for sure, but then after the Bama let down i'm having second thoughts about our chances away from K-town. I voted yes though i still believe we are getting there one brick at a time.

 

[davethevol]

I think we can beat them, but they are not a weak team. Also, cherry-picking stats is not a great way to prove your argument.

 

[FEARinSEC]

Win or lose, I still LOVE my VOLS!!!!

GBO!! BEAT MISSOURI!!!

 

[Johnny Majors' Ghost]

Tennessee would be 5-2 currently with Mizzou's schedule. 27-21 VOLS!

 

[Rifleman]

I thought we would take this one home for sure, but then after the Bama let down i'm having second thoughts about our chances away from K-town. I voted yes though i still believe we are getting there one brick at a time.

I totally understand that apprehension. I just think Bama and Oregon are in another stratosphere this year.

I don't think this team is afraid of Mizzou, though, and as long as the bottom doesn't fall out early, we will win the game.

If we lose, I think we will all be saying we let one get away.

 

[Rifleman]

I think we can beat them, but they are not a weak team. Also, cherry-picking stats is not a great way to prove your argument.

Just trying to point out the disparity in strength of schedule, which to me is critical when trying to evaluate two teams strengths in college football. If looking at comparable games is good enough to help select teams for a BCS championship game, it should be good enough for VolNation.

Does anyone think Mizzou's record would be 7-1 if they had played our schedule in the order we played it? I think they'd be 4-4.

Also, in statistics it is permissible to exclude outliers in order to normalize data. I ain't cherry picking. I'm normalizin'.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Missouri beat two teams that beat us. They have lost one game this year, on a missed field goal in overtime. We are playing them at their place. We are starting a true freshman quarterback who hasn't completed more than 5 passes so far. It's no surprise they're favored.

Mizzou's a good team, guys. They aren't perfect- but neither are we. Our lack of speed and depth will result in them winning and likely covering the spread.

Doesn't matter, though. We'll make a bowl game, land a top 5 class, and stomp them for years to come.

I actually believe we win this game by double digits. One stat I would love to know is the average weight of their d line vs average weight of our o line

Georgia had four silly TOs against Mizzou. They won the TO battle against us. That's the only difference I see.

As for Florida, we imploded in a game we easily could have won.

Dobbs led a TD drive against Bama. He is certainly capable of putting up points on Mizzou. He has to take care of the football, but I have no evidence that he won't do that. He seemed to have very good location on his passes against Bama.

Missouri is nothing close to Oregon

I can't disagree with any of these statements. All are valid and true.

Bottom line for me is Coaching. This game comes down to coaching, preparation, adjustments, and in game decisions.

Coaching and staff edge to CBJ and company.