We Should Beat Mizzou - We Are Getting No Respect

Are we being underestimated because of our schedule?

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#26
#26
Rifleman said:
I totally understand that apprehension. I just think Bama and Oregon are in another stratosphere this year.

I don't think this team is afraid of Mizzou, though, and as long as the bottom doesn't fall out early, we will win the game.

If we lose, I think we will all be saying we let one get away.
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^ Agreed. I read all the time on this site about he we should have beaten FL and we "let one get away". Well this game, in my opinion, is the same kind of game. It is winnable if the team plays all 4 quarters and we make it to halftime.
 
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#27
#27
I see a very low scoring affair. UT could easily win if you catch some breaks -- a few turnovers at key times or some penalties on Mizzou at the right moment.

But if you played ten times I think Mizzou wins 7 of them.
 
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#29
#29
Bkwards K said:
--Tennesse hasn't won a meaningful road game since Fulmer.
--Tennessee is starting a Fr QB who has played exactly 1/2 of a game in mop up duty
--Mizzou has lost one game all year and are highly ranked
--Mizzou is faster than UT at all of the skilled positions
--Tenn is inexperienced at corner and both safeties are banged up.

Yeah, I have no idea why Mizzou is favored in this game nor can I understand why anyone would pick them to win the game. The Vols have a chance but it would be an upset if they win.
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This...

Way too many facts for this crew..
 
#30
#30
lawgator1 said:
I see a very low scoring affair. UT could easily win if you catch some breaks -- a few turnovers at key times or some penalties on Mizzou at the right moment.

But if you played ten times I think Mizzou wins 7 of them.
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Really? More like a 5 and 5 because of the intangibles you mentioned. Of course, home field advantage is also a factor.
 
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#31
#31
fade route said:
Doesn't mean much.....we outweighed Oregon significantly and you can see where that got us. Technique and discipline > weight differential.
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A lot more seasoned at this point in the year though...we are not the same team that faced Oregon in September, and I am guessing Columbia is both a much shorter trip and less intimidating. And beyond that, I didn't think the reason we lost to Oregon was their D Line AT ALL. We ran pretty well on them....178 yards and hung with them for a little over a quarter.

It was our DEFENSE that got smoked...just like every other D they have faced.
 
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#32
#32
When I think about this Missouri game I keep going back to the South Carolina game. Maty Mauk, IMO, is a similar player to Connor Shaw. Don't get me wrong, he is no Connor Shaw, but he is a gamer much like him. We did very well against Connor Shaw and we limited the BIG plays. South Carolina has probably the fastest receiver in the SEC. If our defense applies pressure up front and our DB's cover Mizzou's receivers like they did during the South Carolina game I think we have a real shot at winning.
 
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#33
#33
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
When I think about this Missouri game I keep going back to the South Carolina game. Maty Mauk, IMO, is a similar player to Connor Shaw. Don't get me wrong, he is no Connor Shaw, but he is a gamer much like him. We did very well against Connor Shaw and we limited the BIG plays. South Carolina has probably the fastest receiver in the SEC. If our defense applies pressure up front and our DB's cover Mizzou's receivers like they did during the South Carolina game I think we have a real shot at winning.
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Similar and less experienced...a good combination. :)
 
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#35
#35
i feel the same way about mizzou this year that i did last year. that we have better talent and should win the game if we have better coaching. we dominated them last year for a half with our horrific defense and dooley struck again with no half time adjustments and our generally quitting attitude. i see no reason we shouldn't win this game, especially with mauk being their qb. yes we have dobbs playing, but i think he will outplay mauk because our defense is better.
 
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#37
#37
BanditVol said:
LOL! No Oregon is the no. 2 team in the country and though I don't recall the line, it was much larger than the 13 pt favorite Mizz opened as (not sure what it is now)
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It's probably up to 56 because Patrick Ashford
 
#40
#40
zreeves said:
i feel the same way about mizzou this year that i did last year. that we have better talent and should win the game if we have better coaching. we dominated them last year for a half with our horrific defense and dooley struck again with no half time adjustments and our generally quitting attitude. i see no reason we shouldn't win this game, especially with mauk being their qb. yes we have dobbs playing, but i think he will outplay mauk because our defense is better.
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Dear God in heaven......he's back
LSUUT2001-2.jpg
 
#42
#42
Rifleman said:
. . . Edit: A good example of what I'm talking about. Every "expert" but Bruce Feldman on CBS Sports is picking us not to be able to cover a 12.5 point spread. So they all feel it is more likely that we'll lose by 13 or more, than not? I don't think there is any validity in that viewpoint. . . .
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If you look at their "records" against the spread, they are all around .500. Some a little higher, some a little lower. This makes sense, since it is the point of a spread. How they pick doesn't mean anything.

The line opened around 13-13.5 and has closed to 10-10.5 as week has progressed. This tells us that early in the week, plenty were taking Tennessee and the points. then it stopped moving.

So it seems that at about half the betters in the country - and that would probably be 10s of 1000s of people - also think Mizzou will win by 10 or the line would have continued to trickle down.

It makes sense. Missouri is 7-1 and playing at home. They've beaten teams that we could not. It really is that simple. But, it doesn't matter AT ALL to the outcome of this weekend's game. We need to stop worrying about "respect." Win and it will come.

Personally, I wouldn't care if Missouri was favored by 50. It has no real effect on the outcome of the game, and if Tennesssee does win, it just makes the upset look better and we get more pub.
 
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#45
#45
Rifleman said:
I have heard one preview after another of tomorrow's game where the commentator sagely pronounces that Mizzou will easily whip us.

One reason given on a program last night: because Tennessee ranks 83rd in total defense and won't be able to stop Mizzou's offense.

Mizzou's defensive front was also invoked, but I have already given evidence why they are overrated here:

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/207144-mizzous-run-defense-overrated.html

To rebut the pundits, I want to focus on our defensive improvements this year as well as the fact that we are getting no credit for our strength of schedule.

People are dissing us because of our showing at Oregon and Alabama . . . as if Mizzou would have won those games? UCLA just lost by 4 TDs at Oregon. Would they be heavy underdogs versus Mizzou? Further, even if we remove these games from our schedule, we have still played as tough a schedule as Mizzou.

So where would we rank in the FBS in the major defensive categories if we exclude the Alabama and Oregon games?

Total Defense
Vols - 366 ypg - 33rd
Mizzou - 395.6 ypg 66th

Rushing Defense
Vols - 176 ypg - 76th
Mizzou - 111.4 ypg - 16th

Passing Defense
Vols - 190 ypg - 14th
Mizzou - 284.3 ypg - 112th

Scoring Defense
Vols - 21.7 - 29th
Mizzou - 22.8 - 35th

I think the stats above provide a valid comparison because they include games against Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina for both sides as well as the soft underbellies of both schedules.

We are not the team that was giving up massive yardage to the Troy's of the world last year.

We have a significantly better pass defense than Mizzou, but who doesn't? They have a better rush defense. All in all, there is no reason we should be scared of these guys, play tentative, and get ourselves into an early hole. This is a game where we are not being given a chance to win, but I think we have a lot of advantages the casual pundits are dismissing. I don't think Maty Mauk or a gimpy Franklin can beat us.

Go Vols!

Edit: A good example of what I'm talking about. Every "expert" but Bruce Feldman on CBS Sports is picking us not to be able to cover a 12.5 point spread. So they all feel it is more likely that we'll lose by 13 or more, than not? I don't think there is any validity in that viewpoint.

Expert Picks - Against the Spread - Week 10 - CBSSports.com
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Stats no good unless restricted to common opponents. Even then they're not dependable due to tangibles like injuries, suspensions and etc during game times.
 
#46
#46
SaintLouisVol said:
If you look at their "records" against the spread, they are all around .500. Some a little higher, some a little lower. This makes sense, since it is the point of a spread. How they pick doesn't mean anything.

The line opening around 13-13.5 and has closed to 10-10.5 as week has progressed. This tells us that early in the week, plenty were taking Tennessee and the points. then it stopped moving.

So it seems that at about half the betters in the country - and that would probably be 10s of 1000s of people - also think Mizzou will win by 10 or the line would have continued to trickle down.

It makes sense. Missouri is 7-1 and playing at home. They've beaten teams that we could not. It really is that simple. But, it doesn't matter AT ALL to the outcome of this weekend's game. We need to get stop worrying about "respect." Win and it will come.

Personally, I wouldn't care if Missouri was favored by 50. It has no real effect on the outcome of the game, and if Tennesssee does win, it just makes the upset look better and we get more pub.
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Good points. Yes, we can get our respect by beating these guys, but it makes me sick to see us written off. Plus, your information shows that Vegas thought that opening link was bunk and many people happily bet the spread at +13.

With hindsight at the end of the year, though, I don't even think a Tennessee win will look like the upset it is going to be portrayed as on Saturday night.

Instead, it will just be us passing up a decent Mizzou team on our journey back to the top.
 
#47
#47
lawgator1 said:
I see a very low scoring affair. UT could easily win if you catch some breaks -- a few turnovers at key times or some penalties on Mizzou at the right moment.

But if you played ten times I think Mizzou wins 7 of them.
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Agreed. But they are coming off of a week when their season collapsed in overtime. Advantage Tennessee, IMO.

I like our chances, but it's hard to say that the experts necessarily got the spread wrong.
 
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#48
#48
vol2002 said:
Mizzou's a good team, guys. They aren't perfect- but neither are we. Our lack of speed and depth will result in them winning and likely covering the spread.

Doesn't matter, though. We'll make a bowl game, land a top 5 class, and stomp them for years to come.
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I think you're wrong. Dobbs might only be freshman, and he might have only attempted 12 passes so far in his college career, but Mizzou's pass defense is atrocious and I think Dobbs will pick them apart. This is the perfect situation for him to come in, and find success against a supposed top 10 team.

I know Mizzou isn't bad, but they're also not a top 10 team IMO. We can beat them, but we have to have a better defensive performance than last week. If our defense can play like they against Georgia and South Carolina, then I think we take this game.
 
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#49
#49
oregonvol said:
Missouri beat two teams that beat us.
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No. They really didn't. Neither UF nor UGA rolled into their games with Mizzou with the same health and roster as when they played UT. UGA in particular was hurting. UF has pretty much just fallen apart... a reflection IMO of Muschamp. I hope they keep him forever.

They have lost one game this year, on a missed field goal in overtime.
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UT beat the same team by a made FG... and UT played against their starting QB the whole game and throttled him.

We are playing them at their place.
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So was USCe. Faurot was recently expanded to 71k. It is not a particularly noisy place to start with... and I expect UT to be well represented tomorrow. In short, this isn't like another trip to the Swamp, B-D, or Autzen. Travel still has its challenges but Mizzou has never really had a huge home field advantage.

We are starting a true freshman quarterback who hasn't completed more than 5 passes so far. .
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Now that is HUGE.

We can all be hopeful but we really do not know how Dobbs will play. This could turn into another failed experiment. However if he plays well... UT has the better roster, more overall talent across both lines, and should win the game.
 
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