We Will Make The Playoffs..Here's how!

[keepitreal2022]

Hey Volnation- I'm brand new to the board but wanted to give me perspective on our remaining schedule and playoff hopes. I try not to get too excited but this could be the year (see LSU)

I think we will be invited to the playoffs because:

1. Bama will lose another game between now and Dec
2. The Michigan/OSU loser will be left out
3. USC/PAC 12 conference is too weak and the Ducks have already got beaten by an SEC team
4. Big 12 is not strong enough (OU carried them)

My Playoff team predictions as of 10/21 (in no order):
Tennessee: Strong Resume
Michigan: a little too physical this year for OSU
Clemson: No competition
Georgia: Champs and Reputation (aka past Bama bias)

Not to overlook KY (if we can't handle UTM then we are not worthy) But We can do this- we have the offensive firepower to blow out anybody. I think we are going to take over Georgia...I plan to be there with my brother and dad.
My only concern is the humpers and their TEs and playing in Athens (they will get favorable calls). But we should have Tillman back by that time. Thoughts?

 

[Volbrando]

depending on other factors... Bama getting beat again (unless by us in the SEC Championship game) will make our win against them look worse

its going to be very interesting seeing how all of this will play out....

we can only control us...so lets go win every game we can

 

[utvolpj]

Why would an undefeated SEC champ be worried about making the playoffs?

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

Hey Volnation- I'm brand new to the board but wanted to give me perspective

 

[hUTch2002]

Hey Volnation- I'm brand new to the board but wanted to give me perspective on our remaining schedule and playoff hopes. I try not to get too excited but this could be the year (see LSU)

I think we will be invited to the playoffs because:

1. Bama will lose another game between now and Dec
2. The Michigan/OSU loser will be left out
3. USC/PAC 12 conference is too weak and the Ducks have already got beaten by an SEC team
4. Big 12 is not strong enough (OU carried them)

My Playoff team predictions as of 10/21 (in no order):
Tennessee: Strong Resume
Michigan: a little too physical this year for OSU
Clemson: No competition
Georgia: Champs and Reputation (aka past Bama bias)

Not to overlook KY (if we can't handle UTM then we are not worthy) But We can do this- we have the offensive firepower to blow out anybody. I think we are going to take over Georgia...I plan to be there with my brother and dad.
My only concern is the humpers and their TEs and playing in Athens (they will get favorable calls). But we should have Tillman back by that time. Thoughts?

First things first. Keep winning and it doesn’t matter.

But, let’s assume a UGA loss for discussion sake. If we’re 11-1 then I think we would be taken over 11-1 Michigan but probably not over 11-1 Ohio State because it’s Ohio State. So I would rather Ohio State beat the crap out of Michigan if we were to lose to UGA. I agree the Big 12 and PAC 12 will ultimately be left out. Lose to UGA and UGA runs the table then it’ll likely be:
1 UGA
2 Ohio State/UM winner
3 Clemson
4 UT or Ohio State/UM loser

Now if Bama runs the table then it goes to this:
1 Ohio State/UM winner
2 Bama
3 Clemson (I think 1 loss SEC champ jumps undefeated Clemson)
4 UT/UGA winner (I think this team would get in over the OSU/UM loser)

If the B12 or P12 do have an undefeated conference champ then they will be the 3 or 4 seed and no second team gets in from any conference unless Clemson stumbles.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

I just came across this. We’re picked in the CFP by every panel member but 1:
College football predictions: Second-chance expert picks for 2022 national champion, playoff field, more

 

[LAVol1]

What happens if OSU or Michigan goes undefeated, Clemson is undefeated, the Vols lose a close one in Athens and Bama beats UGA in the SEC Championship? In that case, only 2 SEC teams can go. In that somewhat likely scenario, are the Vols left out?

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

Need help from Ole Miss.

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

I think a lot of y’all are sleeping on Alabama. Yes they were sloppy on Saturday, penalty-wise, but that game ultimately had a lot more to do with how good we are than it had to do with their deficiencies, imo. I expect them to win out and rematch us in the SECCG. Question will be which team improves more between now and then; if they can clean up penalties they should take a step forward on a neutral field, but we left 14 points on the field and spotted them 7 as well.

 

[Stephen Gray]

I agree with many of the scenarios above and think we have great chances even with a Georgia loss. That said, we have to take all of games seriously. We should beat everyone except Georgia imho with Kentucky having an outside chance but only really if we show up unprepared.

We could also drop one to the lower SEC tier at the end of the season if we aren’t ready. I’m not saying I expect this, but if the last decade and a half or more has taught me anything it’s that our teams can underperform below anything I would have believed when they don’t take the opponent seriously and prepare appropriately.

I mean we’ve lost to some really bad teams we had no business losing to. Even some games we won were very very ugly (anyone remember the shootout we got into with Troy under Dooley? I was super upset even though we pulled that out. A real low point under Dooley. One of many.) I remember texting my girlfriend at the time (also an alum and fan) wondering why we just couldn’t be better.

All of that said though, I don’t actually expect this to be an issue. Our coaches seem to consistently get the team prepared and focused on right things. They’ve been able to develop this team such that players themselves work to get each other better and to stay on track. They seem to really hold each other accountable.

Heupel is always saying it comes down to preparing correctly and locker room leaders stepping up, and for once I don’t think it’s just coach speech. I think he really understands how to get them back into right mindset after both the high points and low points.

I was thinking about this the other day, and I wondered how much HeupeI’s background winning the NC as a player and as a quarterback has helped to prepare him as a coach. Not all great players make great coaches, but there are other examples like Spurrier where they did turn out great. I can’t imagine it hurts.

Back to preparation though, I mean even last year in our losses we competed. They played the games for the whole period without the giving up that had happened in some prior regimes. Off of losses we gave the next opponents good efforts as if they hadn’t happened. There was no tailspin where previous losses caused them to prepare poorly or to give poor effort. Of course nobody likes poor results and mistakes but those things are easier to fix than poor attitudes.

As to the game planning and play calling, we always have a plan that makes sense and the coaches seem to be able to make adjustments in the game. They actively and quickly identify opponent’s weaknesses and put the players in a position exploit them. As to our own weaknesses, they understand them and make the most of what we have to mitigate them.

I’m not saying the scheme is perfect or there aren’t coaching mistakes but it is night and day from what we saw under Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt. They don’t tend to repeat the same mistakes continuously like we have seen in the past. Sometimes we can argue if adjustments were correct or should have come sooner, but the coaches themselves seem to be improving at this aspect.

Sometimes the players do not execute correctly of course, but that’s any football team. They have improved week to week. We still have depth issues and our talent isn’t what we want in some areas but even in those we have seen players continue to improve consistently. Take our much maligned secondary for example. Is it what we want? No. But did anyone expect them to play teams like LSU and Alabama as well as they did after Florida? Not many.

Anyway, all of this is to say: nothing is certain but for once I believe in what is being sold as progress. I like our chances and think the future is bright, playoff or no playoff.

 

[WillisWG]

Win the SECCG your in.

 

[Stephen Gray]

Win the SECCG your in.

Agreed that this is the most straightforward path where you don’t have to rely on other teams results.

 

[TGVol]

Also remember that UCLA and TCU both need to lose at least one game each. They will take either one of those 2 undefeated over anyone else with 1 loss with exception of SEC champion (which will be in for sure with or without previous losses).

 

[WillisWG]

Agreed that this is the most straightforward path where you don’t have to rely on other teams results.

And no pissing and moaning that you didn't deserve to be there

 

[VAWL FAN]

Win the SECCG your in.

I think if we end the regular season undefeated we'd be in the playoffs no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.

 

[Stephen Gray]

I think if we end the regular season undefeated we'd be in the playoffs no matter what happens in the SEC championship game.

I like our chances in that scenario but I wonder if it depends on who beats us? If it’s the Alabama rematch then probably. If Alabama drops another and loses the west and we lose the championship do we still get in? Not sure

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Win the SECCG your in.

Agreed but if they get to SECCG, then they have to be in because they will have the strongest resume of all 1 loss teams except maybe Bama which they might be 1-1 against because they would have beat 1, 3 and 3 other Top 25. No way they don’t get one of the 4 spots.

 

[Jeff Clark]

Tennessee will make the Playoffs by beating Georgia then beating Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship Game. Anything besides that is a crapshoot.

 

[Stephen Gray]

Tennessee will make the Playoffs by beating Georgia then beating Alabama or Ole Miss is the SEC Championship Game. Anything besides that is a crapshoot.

I concur. I mean I agree with the logic we should probably get in with a loss in the SEC championship game but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t work out like that. We’d be pretty miffed as a fan base and maybe rightfully so but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world.

 

[Hydro556]

Being on the road concerns me, but even before the bama game, I felt that GA was more beatable.

I think we have a decent chance to beat them.

 

[Stephen Gray]

Being on the road concerns me, but even before the bama game, I felt that GA was more beatable.

I think we have a decent chance to beat them.

I hope you are right. I think we have a great chance because our offense is so good that I think we always have a chance but I’m not sure how we really match up to be honest. I haven’t looked at them much. I did look at their schedule so far and to be honest I’m not sure what it make of it. They’ve crushed a lot of weaker teams but so had a couple of unexpected challenges from weaker opposition. As far as I can tell they haven’t really played a solid team except Oregon.

Were they sleeping on the opposition in the games they struggled and were just unfocused and those issues have been corrected or are there bigger issues? The fact they’ve faced issues twice with Missouri and Kent St. is encouraging because if was just an off week of preparation then apparently they didn’t learn the lesson the first time.

All of that said though: I did mention I haven’t really looked at them deeply. So until I do and have some stronger opinions I’m gonna assume they are serious, and it will be a good game that could go either way.

 

[TnVol!]

Beat UT Martin, then beat Kentucky, etc etc ............

 

[keepitreal2022]

First things first. Keep winning and it doesn’t matter.

But, let’s assume a UGA loss for discussion sake. If we’re 11-1 then I think we would be taken over 11-1 Michigan but probably not over 11-1 Ohio State because it’s Ohio State. So I would rather Ohio State beat the crap out of Michigan if we were to lose to UGA. I agree the Big 12 and PAC 12 will ultimately be left out. Lose to UGA and UGA runs the table then it’ll likely be:
1 UGA
2 Ohio State/UM winner
3 Clemson
4 UT or Ohio State/UM loser

Now if Bama runs the table then it goes to this:
1 Ohio State/UM winner
2 Bama
3 Clemson (I think 1 loss SEC champ jumps undefeated Clemson)
4 UT/UGA winner (I think this team would get in over the OSU/UM loser)

If the B12 or P12 do have an undefeated conference champ then they will be the 3 or 4 seed and no second team gets in from any conference unless Clemson stumbles.

1-I would agree with this assessment but OSU/UM have to play in their conference championship. Its possible their champs will have 1 loss on record.

3-If its Alabama as the SEC Champs then they would rank behind Clemson; unless they want to avoid another SEC Title game matchup

4-Agree

2-Bama may not make it

 

[WillisWG]

Agreed but if they get to SECCG, then they have to be in because they will have the strongest resume of all 1 loss teams except maybe Bama which they might be 1-1 against because they would have beat 1, 3 and 3 other Top 25. No way they don’t get one of the 4 spots.

You mention 3 other top 25 teams , I am not sure how much, if any weigh the CFP Selection Committee gives to previous game time rankings of opponents. All 3 could lose 1 or 2 more games and our resume not look as strong.

Too many variables right now to say for sure. Better time will be after the 1st CFP ranking are released.

 

[keepitreal2022]

First things first. Keep winning and it doesn’t matter.

But, let’s assume a UGA loss for discussion sake. If we’re 11-1 then I think we would be taken over 11-1 Michigan but probably not over 11-1 Ohio State because it’s Ohio State. So I would rather Ohio State beat the crap out of Michigan if we were to lose to UGA. I agree the Big 12 and PAC 12 will ultimately be left out. Lose to UGA and UGA runs the table then it’ll likely be:
1 UGA
2 Ohio State/UM winner
3 Clemson
4 UT or Ohio State/UM loser

Now if Bama runs the table then it goes to this:
1 Ohio State/UM winner
2 Bama
3 Clemson (I think 1 loss SEC champ jumps undefeated Clemson)
4 UT/UGA winner (I think this team would get in over the OSU/UM loser)

If the B12 or P12 do have an undefeated conference champ then they will be the 3 or 4 seed and no second team gets in from any conference unless Clemson stumbles.

Unless the P12 winner is Oregon.