What are the odds?

#1
LowKey

LowKey

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#1
A two loss Alabama team, or a one loss Oakie St team?

Bama - Cinci

Cinci - Michigan

Ok St - ND

OK St - Cinci



The college playoffs are meant to showcase the best teams in the nation. Wouldn't the team with the best odds of winning a head to head matchup be in?
 
#3
#3
This is why I believe there should be at least an 8 team playoff. Too many good teams this year that can make a great argument for making the playoffs
 
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#6
#6
Mtnvol80 said:
Bama isn't getting in without beating Georgia. There is a path but it's highly unlikely it plays out
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I still believe that Bama is better than everyone except Georgia. I don't like that they are, but wouldn't they be favored in any match up with the other contenders?
 
#8
#8
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
This is why I believe there should be at least an 8 team playoff. Too many good teams this year that can make a great argument for making the playoffs
Click to expand...

My 8 team system works for such a thing:

All P5 Conference Champions get an automatic berth (regardless of record)
The highest ranked G5 team in the final CFP rankings gets an automatic berth and must be a conference champion
The next two highest ranked teams get an "at large" bid regardless of conference (this covers your Independents)
Everyone plays, no byes built in. Random drawings for seeds instead of the final week rankings.
Quarter finals start in pre-selected stadiums around Dec 15th with a bid and selection system like the NFL uses for the Super Bowl. Stadiums must have a minimum seating of 60K and be able to support traveling fan bases in the local area.
Semi finals on New Years (keep the rotating stadium system that's in place) and the Championship in early Jan like we're doing now.

Generally speaking this generally ends up being teams in the top 10 save the G5 team and they tend to sneak into the Top 10 in many years.

For example, 2019 Post Championship Week Rankings and who would have been included:

SEC - LSU 13-0 (#1)
ACC - Clemson 13-0 (#3)
Big 10 - OSU 13-0 (#2)
Big 12 - OU 12-1 (#4)
Pac-12 - Oregon 11-2 (#6)
G5 - Memphis 12-1 (#17)
At Large 1 - UGA 11-2 (#5)
At large 2 - Baylor 11-2 (#7)

2018 Post Championship Rankings:

SEC - Bama 13-0 (#1)
ACC - Clemson 13-0 (#2)
Big 10 - OSU 12-1 (#6)
Big 12 - OU 12-1 (#4)
Pac 12 - Washington 10-3 (#9)
G5 - UCF 12-0 (#8)
At Large 1 - Notre Dame 12-0 (#3)
At Large 2 - UGA 11-2 (#5)

2017 Post Championship Rankings

SEC - UGA 12-1 (#3)
ACC - Clemson 12-1 (#1)
Big 10 - OSU 11-2 (#5)
Big 12 - OU 12-1 (#2)
Pac 12 - USC 11-2 (#8)
G5 - UCF 12-0 (#12)
At Large 1 - Bama 11-1 (#4)
At Large 2 - Wisconsin 12-1 (#6)

Yeah, I've got too much time on my hands...
 
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#10
#10
Mtnvol80 said:
Bama isn't getting in without beating Georgia. There is a path but it's highly unlikely it plays out
Click to expand...
I am not ready to say that yet. If Bama is in game in 4th quarter. And Baylor beats Oklahoma State, Iowa beats Michigan and most importantly Houston beats Cincinnati. Then I see it plausible that Bama is a 2 loss playoff team over Notre Dames and Cincinnati both being 1 loss teams.

Now thats alot of dominoes to fall just right but I think its too early to say 100% Bama is out losing to UGA. The other teams involved have alot to say about it to.
 
#11
#11
"FiveThirtyEight College Playoff Odds" say that Baylor has a solid shot of making the CFP with a win over Oklahoma State.

Assuming a BU win with a loss from any team other than Georgia (Georgia is in regardless of win/lose)…

-Every scenario has Baylor over a 50% shot at the CFP
-Bama loss, BU 55%
-Bama & Cinci loss, BU 72%
-Bama, Cinci, Mich loss, BU 77%
-Georgia & Cinci loss, BU 64%
-Georgia & Mich loss, BU 55%
-Cinci loss, BU 64%
Click to expand...

Of course we all know that the committee has their own agenda. Win or lose we still go to the Sugar Bowl.
 
#12
#12
DeepSpringsVol said:
I am not ready to say that yet. If Bama is in game in 4th quarter. And Baylor beats Oklahoma State, Iowa beats Michigan and most importantly Houston beats Cincinnati. Then I see it plausible that Bama is a 2 loss playoff team over Notre Dames and Cincinnati both being 1 loss teams.

Now thats alot of dominoes to fall just right but I think its too early to say 100% Bama is out losing to UGA. The other teams involved have alot to say about it to.
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But by the numbers if Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Bama loses to UGA then Baylor will be the best two loss team in the country with wins over #5 Oklahoma State, #12 BYU and #14 Oklahoma. The committee will have to do some mighty fancy dancing to contradict their own rankings. The committee told us to upgrade our OOC schedule and to add a championship game for a 13th data point and we did. Let's see what their excuse will be this year.

If Bob Bowlsby even comes close to having a pair of nads ( and it looks like he has finally grown a pair after OU and Texas stabbed him in the back) he will be doing some serious backroom politicing on our behalf.
 
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#13
#13
BUBear said:
But by the numbers if Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Bama loses to UGA then Baylor will be the best two loss team in the country with wins over #5 Oklahoma State, #12 BYU and #14 Oklahoma. The committee will have to do some mighty fancy dancing to contradict their own rankings. The committee told us to upgrade our OOC schedule and to add a championship game for a 13th data point and we did. Let's see what their excuse will be this year.
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I mean in the scenario i put Baylor could be in. I was just replying to thought that Bama loses to Georgia and they are out. With Baylor, Iowa and Houston winning. Then likely Georgia and Baylor are in and it becomes who gets last 2 spots? Notre Dame, Bama, Michigan, Oklahoma, Iowa, Ohio State? Of that bunch Bama has as good a argument that their 2nd loss came to the clear best team. I wasn't slighting Baylor at all. If they beat Oklahoma State and Bama loses but Cincy wins as well as Michigan. I see Baylor as getting in over the 2 lossers and Notre Dame.

Agree or Disagree?
 
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#15
#15
It’s crazy that The buckeyes have a pathway into the playoffs.
 
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#16
#16
DeepSpringsVol said:
I am not ready to say that yet. If Bama is in game in 4th quarter. And Baylor beats Oklahoma State, Iowa beats Michigan and most importantly Houston beats Cincinnati. Then I see it plausible that Bama is a 2 loss playoff team over Notre Dames and Cincinnati both being 1 loss teams.

Now thats alot of dominoes to fall just right but I think its too early to say 100% Bama is out losing to UGA. The other teams involved have alot to say about it to.
Click to expand...

Don’t know if that’s plausible. Looking at Bamas wins they really only have 1 quality win. Ole Miss. How could you say a 2 loss Bama team that only has 1 quality win would get in over a 2 loss OSU team that absolutely destroyed a top 10 MSU and has wins over top 25 Perdue and PSU?

I think the only chance Bama gets in is if they beat UGA.
 
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#17
#17
DeepSpringsVol said:
I mean in the scenario i put Baylor could be in. I was just replying to thought that Bama loses to Georgia and they are out. With Baylor, Iowa and Houston winning. Then likely Georgia and Baylor are in and it becomes who gets last 2 spots? Notre Dame, Bama, Michigan, Oklahoma, Iowa, Ohio State? Of that bunch Bama has as good a argument that their 2nd loss came to the clear best team. I wasn't slighting Baylor at all. If they beat Oklahoma State and Bama loses but Cincy wins as well as Michigan. I see Baylor as getting in over the 2 lossers and Notre Dame.

Agree or Disagree?
Click to expand...
Agree my friend.
 
#18
#18
BigOrangeTrain said:
Don’t know if that’s plausible. Looking at Bamas wins they really only have 1 quality win. Ole Miss. How could you say a 2 loss Bama team that only has 1 quality win would get in over a 2 loss OSU team that absolutely destroyed a top 10 MSU and has wins over top 25 Perdue and PSU?

I think the only chance Bama gets in is if they beat UGA.
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Because one of Bamas losses came in a championship game against the clear cut best team. Several of teams in west beat up on each otherand we know if Arkansas, texas a&m Mississippi state and heck even throw us in the arena. If Tennessee was in the big 10 or those teams mentioned. Everyone of us would have at least 2 more wins by virtue of having more bottom feeders in the conference. Michigan State and purdue we all know would be the opposite they wouldnt have the feathers in their cap if in SEC. They would be where we are or Arkansas and Mississippi State are. Bama while doesnt get the flashy quality wins by virtue of parity of the league as a whole. Few off weeks. Plus Ohio State lost at home to oregon. Which is worse than losing on road at Kyle Field at Texas A&M.
 
#19
#19
Baylor has zero shot of making the playoffs unless Cincy loses and even then the committee would put Ohio State in before them.
 
#20
#20
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
This is why I believe there should be at least an 8 team playoff. Too many good teams this year that can make a great argument for making the playoffs
Click to expand...
No. There is probably one team that belongs in the playoffs and they need 3 other teams so they’ll have somebody to play. If Alabama beats Georgia then there will literally be zero teams that need to be in it.

there’s never been a need for 4 teams and this year is the worst one yet.
 
#22
#22
zjcvols said:
Baylor has zero shot of making the playoffs unless Cincy loses and even then the committee would put Ohio State in before them.
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If Bama loses to Georgia and Baylor beats Oklahoma State then the Bears become the best two loss team in the country with wins over #5, #12 and #14. Ohio State only has one ranked with right now (#11) and Notre Dame has zero.
 
#23
#23
BUBear said:
If Bama loses to Georgia and Baylor beats Oklahoma State then the Bears become the best two loss team in the country with wins over #5, #12 and #14. Ohio State only has one ranked with right now (#11) and Notre Dame has zero.
Click to expand...

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your logic, I’m just telling you what would happen
 
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#24
#24
LowKey said:
I still believe that Bama is better than everyone except Georgia. I don't like that they are, but wouldn't they be favored in any match up with the other contenders?
Click to expand...
They probably would be favored over everyone except Georgia and honestly they probably are 1 of the 4 best I just don't see the committee putting in a 2 loss team that didn't win their conference. They haven't done it yet. Georgia will not get an easier path to a natty than this year thats for sure.
 
#25
#25
LowKey said:
I still believe that Bama is better than everyone except Georgia. I don't like that they are, but wouldn't they be favored in any match up with the other contenders?
Click to expand...
They probably would be favored over everyone except Georgia and honestly they probably are 1 of the 4 best I just don't see the committee putting in a 2 loss team that didn't win their conference. They haven't done it yet. Georgia will not get an easier path to a natty than this year thats for sure.
 
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