What star ratings mean?

#1
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thekicker33

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#1
Since there seems to be a great debate on here about starts mattering/not mattering, the following is a look at the 2009 NFL draft and how the prospects were ranked coming out of high school.
What you'll see is quite a mix.

1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB (2006, 5 star)
2 Rams Jason Smith OT (2004, 2 star)
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE (2004, 3 star)
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB (2004, 2 star)
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB (2005, 5 star)
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT (2006, 5 star)
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR (2005, 4 star)
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT (2005, 5 star)
9 Packers B.J. Raji DT (2004, 2 star)
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR (2006, 4 star)
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE (2006, 4 star)
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB (2006, 4 star)
13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE (2004, 4 star)
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB (2005, 3 star)
15 Texans Brian Cushing OLB (2005, 4 star)
16 Chargers Larry English DE (2004, 2 star)
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB (2006, 4 star)
18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB (2004, 4 star)
19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR (2006, 4 star)
20 Lions Brandon Pettigrew TE (2004, 2 star)
21 Browns Alex Mack C (2004, 3 star)
22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR (2006, 5 star)
23 Ravens Michael Oher OT (2005, 4 star)
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT (2005, 3 star)
25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB (2006, 3 star)
26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB (Not rated)
27 Colts Donald Brown RB (2005, 3 star)
28 Bills Eric Wood C (2004, 2 star)
29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR (2006, 4 star)
30 Titans Kenny Britt WR (2006, 4 star)
31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB (2006, 5 star)
32 Steelers Evander Hood DT (2005, 3 star)

So to come up with if these stars have any validity, I like to look at percentages. Out of the 32, 6 were five stars, 12 were four stars and 14 were three or two stars or not rated. So what does this mean in terms of percentages?

Since there's 2004-2006 represented on this list, I took the average number of five stars over that time period (27) and divided it by six. Then there's about 250 four stars a year, so I divided that by 12. Then the rest I divided by 600 since there's countless numbers of prospects that are either three or two stars or not rated.

The results are if you are 5 star, there's a 22 percent chance of getting drafted in the first round. If you're a 4 star there's a 4.8 percent chance and three star or lower there's about a 2.3 percent chance.
So with all this, IMO, stars do mean a little something. The higher the rating, the higher rate of drafting success. But, at the same time, stars by no means indicates how a player will pan out, indicated by the number of lower rated players being drafted in the first round.

Let me know what you think! I'll look at more past years, if anybody would like.
 
#3
#3
thekicker33 said:
Since there seems to be a great debate on here about starts mattering/not mattering, the following is a look at the 2009 NFL draft and how the prospects were ranked coming out of high school.
What you'll see is quite a mix.

1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB (2006, 5 star)
2 Rams Jason Smith OT (2004, 2 star)
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE (2004, 3 star)
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB (2004, 2 star)
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB (2005, 5 star)
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT (2006, 5 star)
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR (2005, 4 star)
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT (2005, 5 star)
9 Packers B.J. Raji DT (2004, 2 star)
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR (2006, 4 star)
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE (2006, 4 star)
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB (2006, 4 star)
13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE (2004, 4 star)
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB (2005, 3 star)
15 Texans Brian Cushing OLB (2005, 4 star)
16 Chargers Larry English DE (2004, 2 star)
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB (2006, 4 star)
18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB (2004, 4 star)
19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR (2006, 4 star)
20 Lions Brandon Pettigrew TE (2004, 2 star)
21 Browns Alex Mack C (2004, 3 star)
22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR (2006, 5 star)
23 Ravens Michael Oher OT (2005, 4 star)
24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT (2005, 3 star)
25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB (2006, 3 star)
26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB (Not rated)
27 Colts Donald Brown RB (2005, 3 star)
28 Bills Eric Wood C (2004, 2 star)
29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR (2006, 4 star)
30 Titans Kenny Britt WR (2006, 4 star)
31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB (2006, 5 star)
32 Steelers Evander Hood DT (2005, 3 star)

So to come up with if these stars have any validity, I like to look at percentages. Out of the 32, 6 were five stars, 12 were four stars and 14 were three or two stars or not rated. So what does this mean in terms of percentages?

Since there's 2004-2006 represented on this list, I took the average number of five stars over that time period (27) and divided it by six. Then there's about 250 four stars a year, so I divided that by 12. Then the rest I divided by 600 since there's countless numbers of prospects that are either three or two stars or not rated.

The results are if you are 5 star, there's a 22 percent chance of getting drafted in the first round. If you're a 4 star there's a 4.8 percent chance and three star or lower there's about a 2.3 percent chance.
So with all this, IMO, stars do mean a little something. The higher the rating, the higher rate of drafting success. But, at the same time, stars by no means indicates how a player will pan out, indicated by the number of lower rated players being drafted in the first round.

Let me know what you think! I'll look at more past years, if anybody would like.
Click to expand...

I for one find it very interesting and appreciate the effort. would love to see and compare numbers from past years.
 
#5
#5
star ratings are usually correct and miss some talent but most of the highly rated players are correct
 
#6
#6
Great analysis........i'd like to think that's what real coaches do, evaluate the talent, not just acting lazy looking at stars......I'll take 2, 3, and 4 stars all day if they have great work ethic, team players, and have decent talent.......
 
#7
#7
Looking at this list it seems some REAL coaches do not put all their "stock" in STARS !
 
#8
#8
Rock33 said:
Would Love to see '99 and '05 drafts ......
Click to expand...
rivals, from what i can find, only goes back to 2002. With that, about as far back as I could go with the NFL draft would be about 2005, I think. I'd have to look. But I have no problem looking up all this info. in the coming days. School don't start a while!
 
#9
#9
There are a higher percentage of five stars that get recruited than four stars or three stars...fact. Still doesn't mean you have a golden ticket to the NFL if you get a magical 5 star beside your name
 
#10
#10
VolDave said:
star ratings are usually correct and miss some talent but most of the highly rated players are correct
Click to expand...

Your statement has some validity, but the issue is more complex than some realize. It's my understanding that most star rankings are a reflection of how soon a prospect is expected to effectively contribute. 5 stars are expected to make an immediate impact. Three star guys are usually considered to need some polishing before they contribute.

I am not aware of any current scouting gurus working for any of the rating services that have any meaningful football coaching experience, and so I always take the rankings with a grain of salt.

With all this said, 3 star or lower proscpects have a superior numbers advantage and thus should be very well represented in all rounds of the NFL draft.
 
#11
#11
MDBJJC said:
There are a higher percentage of five stars that get recruited than four stars or three stars...fact. Still doesn't mean you have a golden ticket to the NFL if you get a magical 5 star beside your name
Click to expand...

correct
 
#13
#13
With all this said, 3 star or lower proscpects have a superior numbers advantage and thus should be very well represented in all rounds of the NFL draft.[/QUOTE]

That's why I put it in percentages. With such a wide range from 5 to 4 to 3 stars, that's the only way stars can be looked at objectively
 
#14
#14
Here's a look at the 2008 NFL draft and how it corresponded with the players' ratings coming out of high school

1. Miami - Jake Long, OT Michigan (2003, 4 star)
2. St. Louis - Chris Long, DE Virginia (2004, 4 star)
3. Atlanta - Matt Ryan, QB Boston College (2003, 3 star)
4. Oakland - Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (2005, 5 star)
5. Kansas City - Glen Dorsey, DT LSU (2004, 4 star)
6. NY Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State (2004, 4 star)
7. New Orleans- Sedrick Ellis, DT USC (2003, 4 star)
8. Jacksonville- Derrick Harvey, DE Florida (2004, 5 star)
9. Cincinnati - Keith Rivers, LB USC (2004, 5 star)
10. New England- Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee (2004, 4 star)
11. Buffalo - Leotis McKelvin, CB Troy (2004, 2 star)
12. Denver - Ryan Clady, OT Boise State (2004, 2 star)
13. Carolina - Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon (2005, 5 star)
14. Chicago - Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt (2003, 2 star)
15. Kansas City- Branden Albert, G Virginia (2004, 2 star)
16. Arizona - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee State (not rated)
17. Detroit- Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College (2003, 3 star)
18. Baltimore - Joe Flacco, QB Delaware (2003, 3 star)
19. Carolina- Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh (2006, 4 star)
20. Tampa Bay - Aqib Talib, CB Kansas (2004, 2 star)
21. Atlanta- Sam Baker, OT USC (2003, 4 star)
22. Dallas- Felix Jones, RB Arkansas (2005, 4 star)
23. Pittsburgh - Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois (2005, 4 star)
24. Tennessee - Chris Johnson, RB East Carolina (2004, 2 star)
25. Dallas- Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida (2003, 3 star)
26. Houston - Duane Brown, OT Virginia Tech (2003, 3 star)
27. San Diego - Antoine Cason, CB Arizona (2004, 3 star)
28. Seattle - Lawrence Jackson, DE USC (2003, 4 star)
29. San Francisco- Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina (2004, 3 star)
30. NY Jets - Dustin Keller, TE Purdue (2003, 2 star)
31. NY Giants - Kenny Phillips, S Miami (FL) (2005, 5 star)

This year, there were only 31 picks due to New England being punished for illegally video taping other team's signals. There were 5 five stars, 11 four stars and 15 three or two stars or unrated players.
The perecentages are pretty similar to last time. Five stars = 18.99 percent chance of being drafted in the first round. Four stars = 4.4% and the rest= 2.5%.
So again, stars meant a little something but not enough to say a player was going to be great/good/average/etc....
 
#15
#15
Alabama and Texas starting lineup for this year's national championship game


Alabama Offense

LT James Carpenter, 4 stars

LG Mike Johnson, 4 stars

C William Vlachos, 3 stars

RG Barrett Jones, 4 stars

RT Drew Davis, 2 stars

TE Colin Peek, 3 stars

HB Preston Dial, 3 stars

QB Greg McElroy, 3 stars

RB Mark Ingram, 3 stars

WR Julio Jones, 5 stars

WR Marquis Maze, 3 stars



Alabama Defense

DE Lorenzo Washington, 4 stars

NG Terrence Cody, 3 stars

DE Brandon Deaderick, 3 stars

LB Cory Reamer, 3 stars

LB Rolando McClain, 4 stars

LB Nico Johnson, 5 stars

LB Eryk Anders, 1 star

CB Javier Arenas, 3 stars

CB Kareem Jackson, 4 stars

SS Mark Barron, 4 stars

FS Justin Woodall, 4 stars



Texas Offense

WR Jordan Shipley, 4 stars

WR James Kirkendoll, 4 stars

TE Greg Smith, 3 stars

RT Kyle Hix, 4 stars

RG Michael Huey, 4 stars

C Chris Hall, 3 stars

LG Charlie Tanner, 3 stars

LT Adam Ulatoski, 3 stars

WR Malcolm Williams, 4 stars

RB Tre' Newton, 3 stars

QB Colt McCoy, 3 stars



Texas Defense

DE Sergio Kindle, 5 stars

DT Kheeston Randall, 4 stars

DT Lamarr Houston, 4 stars

DE Sam Acho, 3 stars

LB Emmanuel Acho, 3 stars

LB Roddrick Muckelroy, 3 stars

LB Keenan Robinson, 4 stars

CB Curtis Brown, 5 stars

S Blake Gideon, 2 stars

S Earl Thomas, 4 stars

CB Aaron Williams, 4 stars
 
#17
#17
voldoc82 said:
Your statement has some validity, but the issue is more complex than some realize. It's my understanding that most star rankings are a reflection of how soon a prospect is expected to effectively contribute. 5 stars are expected to make an immediate impact. Three star guys are usually considered to need some polishing before they contribute.

I am not aware of any current scouting gurus working for any of the rating services that have any meaningful football coaching experience, and so I always take the rankings with a grain of salt.

With all this said, 3 star or lower proscpects have a superior numbers advantage and thus should be very well represented in all rounds of the NFL draft.
Click to expand...
Good post.
 
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