What the Superbowl teaches us about star ratings

#1
HooahVol

HooahVol

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#1
Interesting article breaking down this years Superbowl teams by their star ratings: College football recruiting: Super Bowl 52 proves recruiting rankings do matter

At first glance it appears 3 stars is where it is at as 43% of the players on the field were 3 star prospects. However the article does point out that 4 and 5 star athletes only make up about 10% of the total recruits whereas 34% of the Superbowl teams were 4 and 5 star recruits so they represent extremely well.

So I guess even though it is easy to dismiss just ratings they are fairly accurate. I still hope we have a coach who is recruiting players he has a plan for and not just by ratings.
 
#4
#4
Recruiting rankings aren't supposed to indicate a thing about a player's NFL prospects. They are supposed to be a measure of a player's college prospects.

Look at star ratings like a measure of odds on a dice roll. If a guy is a 5-star, say there is a 50% chance he'll actually play like a 5-star. If a guy is a 4-star, say there is a 25% chance he'll play like a 5-star and a 50% chance he'll play like a 4-star.

This means every recruiting class will have 4 and 5-star recruits in it who play like 3-stars. However, if you load your classes with 4 and 5-star recruits, you are going to field talented teams because they aren't all going to bust.
 
#5
#5
What does the CFB playoff and National Championship teach us about star ratings?
 
#10
#10
I found this article breaking down all the 3, 4 and 5 stars on UGA and Bama in this years national championship game: National championship 2018: Alabama, Georgia have rosters full of 5-star players.

So, yeah, both teams were loaded with 4 and 5 star athletes. It is nice to think of that diamond in the ruff player everyone else has missed but it looks like the recruiting rankings are pretty accurate.
 
#11
#11
Hawkeye4588 said:
I found this article breaking down all the 3, 4 and 5 stars on UGA and Bama in this years national championship game: National championship 2018: Alabama, Georgia have rosters full of 5-star players.

So, yeah, both teams were loaded with 4 and 5 star athletes. It is nice to think of that diamond in the ruff player everyone else has missed but it looks like the recruiting rankings are pretty accurate.
Click to expand...

You're right on.

There are always 4 and 5 * recruits that bust. There are always 2 and 3 * recruits that turn out to be great.

However, the volume of 2 and 3 * recruits tends to skew the count and make it appear rankings are not accurate when the reality is a 4 or 5 * has a much higher probability of being highly successful than a 2 or 3 *.

Therefore, the better the recruiting class, the more likely it will be successful, assuming the coach has at least a small clue.
 
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#12
#12
05_never_again said:
Recruiting rankings aren't supposed to indicate a thing about a player's NFL prospects. They are supposed to be a measure of a player's college prospects.

Look at star ratings like a measure of odds on a dice roll. If a guy is a 5-star, say there is a 50% chance he'll actually play like a 5-star. If a guy is a 4-star, say there is a 25% chance he'll play like a 5-star and a 50% chance he'll play like a 4-star.

This means every recruiting class will have 4 and 5-star recruits in it who play like 3-stars. However, if you load your classes with 4 and 5-star recruits, you are going to field talented teams because they aren't all going to bust.
Click to expand...

Actually I believe 247 has said their rankings are specifically where they see guys getting drafted

The top 32 are what they predict as first rounders
 
#14
#14
05_never_again said:
Recruiting rankings aren't supposed to indicate a thing about a player's NFL prospects. They are supposed to be a measure of a player's college prospects.

Look at star ratings like a measure of odds on a dice roll. If a guy is a 5-star, say there is a 50% chance he'll actually play like a 5-star. If a guy is a 4-star, say there is a 25% chance he'll play like a 5-star and a 50% chance he'll play like a 4-star.

This means every recruiting class will have 4 and 5-star recruits in it who play like 3-stars. However, if you load your classes with 4 and 5-star recruits, you are going to field talented teams because they aren't all going to bust.
Click to expand...

Actually, though they are often wrong, the most respected recruiting services will not give out more than 32 kids a 5 star rating...because there are 32 NFL teams and a kid that gets a 5 star rating is supposed to be worthy in 3 or 4 years of being some NFL teams 1st round draft pick. So there is supposed to be a direct correlation between a 5 star and a 1st round draft pick.

These are often very wrong, because they are talking about 17 and 18 year old kids. Many, many things can derail a talented kid...as we are far too familiar with at UT. So while stars dont mean everything, of you go by recruiting averages like our poster Daj does....the team with the higher 4 year recruiting class rating wins football games more than 75% of the time. National championships and playoffs are even more convincing...if i remember correctly, in the last 10 to 15 years, no team with a 4 year average lower than 6 or 7th has won a championship...and Bamas many championships are of course won by teams who 4 year average was always 1sr or 2nd...so yes, stars do matter...but a team full of high star players matters far more than 1 or 2 kids on a crap team.
 
#19
#19
VolsSportsFan said:
Yes and he says Tom Brady proves Dobbs will be the bestest QB ever.
Click to expand...

No. Dobbs will be the best ever because he's physically as talented as Randall Cunningham. And he was placed on a team that has been a consistent winner since the 1970s.

Great talent + Great supporting cast = best ever
 
#20
#20
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
No. Dobbs will be the best ever because he's physically as talented as Randall Cunningham. And he was placed on a team that has been a consistent winner since the 1970s.

Great talent + Great supporting cast = best ever
Click to expand...

So in your opinion, what would Dobbs have to accomplish to be considered the GOAT? Specific accomplishments.
 
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