What to expect (Statistics) for Sunday's game against Notre Dame

[Volstylexx]

Since the NCAA went to the Super Regional format in 1999, 22 of 35 host teams went on to advance to the College World Series (CWS) after winning game 2 and forcing a decisive game 3. That's 63%... so already that's good odds for us tomorrow from a historical perspective.

Notre Dame has announced Liam Simon as game 3's starter. Here's how his stats compare to either Beam or Burns (UT starter yet to be announced) Advantage highlighted in green: ** for some reason the html code on volnation doesn't recognize more than one space... so see the attached photo if you want a neat version of the numbers.

ERA Win/Loss. IP. Whip R.. SO. BB. WP. HP

(ND) Liam Simon 4.67 2-0. 27. 1.48. 17 49. 22. 7 6

(TN) Chase Burns. 2.69 8-1. 73.2. 1.14. 26. 98. 24. 5. 3

(TN) Drew Beam. 2.72. 8-1. 76. .93. 27. 62. 21. 2 5

Why do stats matter? Ever heard the saying "the Stats don't lie?" The stats tell a complete story of who a player is. Can a pitcher go crazy and have the game of his life? Sure. They can also have a bad game where they get lit up. See Blade Tidwell's Friday night performance and Bertrand's Saturday performance as examples... but stats tell us a pretty good story of what to expect from someone (especially once we reach the post-season due to the large sample size - number of games played).

An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to the starting pitchers. Remember, whoever doesn't start for TN will likely see action as a reliever, so our #1 and #2 tomorrow are both better than anything Notre Dame has left in the pen.. .but just for fun, let's compare TN's #3 and our closer to ND's #2 and we can throw Redmond in as well.

(ND) Jack Findlay. 2.23. 5-2 40.1 1.02. 12. 47. 13. 5. 3

(TN) Kirby Connell. 1.45. 4-0. 37.1. .83 10. 36. 6. 0. 2

(TN). R. Walsh. 2.58. 4-1. 38.1. .91. 12. 39. 10. 1. 1

See where the stats are taking us with this?? An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to relievers.

This isn't to say Notre Dame isn't good. In fact, ND pitching ranks 7th in the nation. It's just that Tennessee's depth is ridiculous: #1 ERA, #1 Whip, #1 in Hits allowed per 9 innings. Tennessee needs patient at-bats, make their pitchers work, and score early and often. We have the depth to counter anything they throw at us. Good news: Vols also lead the nation in the number of walks earned per game, while leading the nation in the least number of walks given up per game. It took a perfect game from ND to beat us 8-6 in game one.. then teams reverted back to their averages in game 2. We saw the outcome of that. We don't need to be great tomorrow. We just need to be average and we will be back in the College World Series. GO BIG ORANGE!


Glossary of terms for those who may not be versed in baseball terminology

ERA - (Earned Runs Allowed) - the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings
IP - Innings Pitched
WHIP - is one of the most commonly used statistics for evaluating a pitcher's performance. The statistic shows how well a pitcher has kept runners off the bases -- it's the sum of a pitcher's walks and hits, divided by his total innings pitched. When it comes to Major League-caliber pitchers a good WHIP is around 1.00. Anything below 1.00 is outstanding (potential Cy Young worthy) since it demonstrates how dominant a pitcher is. (Wiki, 2022).
R - Runs given up (ND Pitcher has given up 17 runs in 1/3 of the number of innings. extrapolated out to represent an equal comparison to innings pitched by TN would be roughly 47.
BB - (base on balls) number of batters "walked" by the pitcher.
WP - (wild pitch) when his pitch is so errant that the catcher is unable to control it and, as a result, baserunner(s) advance.
HP - (Hit by pitch) number of batters the pitcher has hit with a pitch

 

[OneVolNation]

I like the parts where you said the numbers don't lie and the overwhelming advantage to Tennessee.

Go Vols!

 

[vol66]

Since the NCAA went to the Super Regional format in 1999, 22 of 35 host teams went on to advance to the College World Series (CWS) after winning game 2 and forcing a decisive game 3. That's 63%... so already that's good odds for us tomorrow from a historical perspective.

Notre Dame has announced Liam Simon as game 3's starter. Here's how his stats compare to either Beam or Burns (UT starter yet to be announced) Advantage highlighted in green: ** for some reason the html code on volnation doesn't recognize more than one space... so see the attached photo if you want a neat version of the numbers.

ERA Win/Loss. IP. Whip R.. SO. BB. WP. HP

(ND) Liam Simon 4.67 2-0. 27. 1.48. 17 49. 22. 7 6

(TN) Chase Burns. 2.69 8-1. 73.2. 1.14. 26. 98. 24. 5. 3

(TN) Drew Beam. 2.72. 8-1. 76. .93. 27. 62. 21. 2 5

Why do stats matter? Ever heard the saying "the Stats don't lie?" The stats tell a complete story of who a player is. Can a pitcher go crazy and have the game of his life? Sure. They can also have a bad game where they get lit up. See Blade Tidwell's Friday night performance and Bertrand's Saturday performance as examples... but stats tell us a pretty good story of what to expect from someone (especially once we reach the post-season due to the large sample size - number of games played).

An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to the starting pitchers. Remember, whoever doesn't start for TN will likely see action as a reliever, so our #1 and #2 tomorrow are both better than anything Notre Dame has left in the pen.. .but just for fun, let's compare TN's #3 and our closer to ND's #2 and we can throw Redmond in as well.

(ND) Jack Findlay. 2.23. 5-2 40.1 1.02. 12. 47. 13. 5. 3

(TN) Kirby Connell. 1.45. 4-0. 37.1. .83 10. 36. 6. 0. 2

(TN). R. Walsh. 2.58. 4-1. 38.1. .91. 12. 39. 10. 1. 1

See where the stats are taking us with this?? An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to relievers.

This isn't to say Notre Dame isn't good. In fact, ND pitching ranks 7th in the nation. It's just that Tennessee's depth is ridiculous: #1 ERA, #1 Whip, #1 in Hits allowed per 9 innings. Tennessee needs patient at-bats, make their pitchers work, and score early and often. We have the depth to counter anything they throw at us. Good news: Vols also lead the nation in the number of walks earned per game, while leading the nation in the least number of walks given up per game. It took a perfect game from ND to beat us 8-6 in game one.. then teams reverted back to their averages in game 2. We saw the outcome of that. We don't need to be great tomorrow. We just need to be average and we will be back in the College World Series. GO BIG ORANGE!


Glossary of terms for those who may not be versed in baseball terminology

ERA - (Earned Runs Allowed) - the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings
IP - Innings Pitched
WHIP - is one of the most commonly used statistics for evaluating a pitcher's performance. The statistic shows how well a pitcher has kept runners off the bases -- it's the sum of a pitcher's walks and hits, divided by his total innings pitched. When it comes to Major League-caliber pitchers a good WHIP is around 1.00. Anything below 1.00 is outstanding (potential Cy Young worthy) since it demonstrates how dominant a pitcher is. (Wiki, 2022).
R - Runs given up (ND Pitcher has given up 17 runs in 1/3 of the number of innings. extrapolated out to represent an equal comparison to innings pitched by TN would be roughly 47.
BB - (base on balls) number of batters "walked" by the pitcher.
WP - (wild pitch) when his pitch is so errant that the catcher is unable to control it and, as a result, baserunner(s) advance.
HP - (Hit by pitch) number of batters the pitcher has hit with a pitch

Thank you. I appreciate the work. There’s no stat for having yer back up against it. Funny things happen on the way to the grocery.

 

[Jxn Vol]

Very nice write up. Thank you very much.

Something that isn’t in the numbers is we are getting back an animal from the penalty box that is about to unleash hades on the irish. GBO

 

[Volstylexx]

Very nice write up. Thank you very much.

Something that isn’t in the numbers is we are getting back an animal from the penalty box that is about to unleash hades on the irish. GBO

Yup. No comparison between the two offenses… and no metic for the passion Gilbert will bring to the game tomorrow.

TN ranks 1st in the nation in runs compared to 81st for ND
TN ranks 1st in the nation in Homeruns compared to 69th for ND
TN ranks 1st in the nation in slugging compared to 59th for ND
TN ranks 4th in on base percentage compared to 121 for ND
TN ranks 3rd in the nation in doubles compared to 120th for ND
TN ranks 12th in the nation in batting average compared to 46th for ND

 

[sjt18]

Stats aren't perfect predictors but are probably closer in baseball than any other sport. Over multiple games, the trends tend to predict the winner. The odds have to be strongly against ND winning two of 3 vs UT.

The only thing I disagree with is that Bertrand's performance was an anomaly. I believe he said himself that UT's hitters made him be perfect and jumped on every pitch that wasn't. He lives on breaking pitches and location. It was only a matter of time.

 

[sechamp2012]

Position vs position UT is better in every position. If this was football UT would be a 17point favorite in Vegas. Baseball is a different animal you can hit it hard but right at someone, you can check swing and put a Texas leaguer for a hit. Like OP said a pitcher just 1 player can have the game of his life and the opposing pitcher have his worst and affect the outcome. So we are easily the better team and the host is always rated higher so the winning % is going to always be with the host in the Supers.

 

[TJVol95]

We rocked their Ace! It’s on today!! GBO!!

 

[VolPack22]

Whose hands will get sweaty whenever the pressure mounts and the lights (or sun) shines brightest? Our guys have shown that even whenever they are down, they are not out. If the roles were reversed yesterday and we were down 9-0, I still have faith in our offense to at least get it close enough to give our team a chance. That’s the difference in my eyes. We will always be in the game to the very end.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

This team has struggled the most when they gET down runs early, then get behind in the count and chased bad pitches late in the count. Today we need to

1. Get out in front with early scores and aggressive base running
2. Don’t get behind in the count
3. Don’t chase junk
4. Please have an ump with a good and consistent strike zone. The past few days has been a very inconsistent strike zone.

GBO

 

[BigOrangePaddy]

This team has struggled the most when they gET down runs early, then get behind in the count and chased bad pitches late in the count. Today we need to

1. Get out in front with early scores and aggressive base running
2. Don’t get behind in the count
3. Don’t chase junk
4. Please have an ump with a good and consistent strike zone. The past few days has been a very inconsistent strike zone.

GBO

The first three innings will be vital to today's game.

 

[Aerie Vol]

I surely want to jump on them early.

But we trailed several times early in the Regional.

We went undefeated.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Since the NCAA went to the Super Regional format in 1999, 22 of 35 host teams went on to advance to the College World Series (CWS) after winning game 2 and forcing a decisive game 3. That's 63%... so already that's good odds for us tomorrow from a historical perspective.

Notre Dame has announced Liam Simon as game 3's starter. Here's how his stats compare to either Beam or Burns (UT starter yet to be announced) Advantage highlighted in green: ** for some reason the html code on volnation doesn't recognize more than one space... so see the attached photo if you want a neat version of the numbers.

ERA Win/Loss. IP. Whip R.. SO. BB. WP. HP

(ND) Liam Simon 4.67 2-0. 27. 1.48. 17 49. 22. 7 6

(TN) Chase Burns. 2.69 8-1. 73.2. 1.14. 26. 98. 24. 5. 3

(TN) Drew Beam. 2.72. 8-1. 76. .93. 27. 62. 21. 2 5

Why do stats matter? Ever heard the saying "the Stats don't lie?" The stats tell a complete story of who a player is. Can a pitcher go crazy and have the game of his life? Sure. They can also have a bad game where they get lit up. See Blade Tidwell's Friday night performance and Bertrand's Saturday performance as examples... but stats tell us a pretty good story of what to expect from someone (especially once we reach the post-season due to the large sample size - number of games played).

An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to the starting pitchers. Remember, whoever doesn't start for TN will likely see action as a reliever, so our #1 and #2 tomorrow are both better than anything Notre Dame has left in the pen.. .but just for fun, let's compare TN's #3 and our closer to ND's #2 and we can throw Redmond in as well.

(ND) Jack Findlay. 2.23. 5-2 40.1 1.02. 12. 47. 13. 5. 3

(TN) Kirby Connell. 1.45. 4-0. 37.1. .83 10. 36. 6. 0. 2

(TN). R. Walsh. 2.58. 4-1. 38.1. .91. 12. 39. 10. 1. 1

See where the stats are taking us with this?? An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to relievers.

This isn't to say Notre Dame isn't good. In fact, ND pitching ranks 7th in the nation. It's just that Tennessee's depth is ridiculous: #1 ERA, #1 Whip, #1 in Hits allowed per 9 innings. Tennessee needs patient at-bats, make their pitchers work, and score early and often. We have the depth to counter anything they throw at us. Good news: Vols also lead the nation in the number of walks earned per game, while leading the nation in the least number of walks given up per game. It took a perfect game from ND to beat us 8-6 in game one.. then teams reverted back to their averages in game 2. We saw the outcome of that. We don't need to be great tomorrow. We just need to be average and we will be back in the College World Series. GO BIG ORANGE!


Glossary of terms for those who may not be versed in baseball terminology

ERA - (Earned Runs Allowed) - the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings
IP - Innings Pitched
WHIP - is one of the most commonly used statistics for evaluating a pitcher's performance. The statistic shows how well a pitcher has kept runners off the bases -- it's the sum of a pitcher's walks and hits, divided by his total innings pitched. When it comes to Major League-caliber pitchers a good WHIP is around 1.00. Anything below 1.00 is outstanding (potential Cy Young worthy) since it demonstrates how dominant a pitcher is. (Wiki, 2022).
R - Runs given up (ND Pitcher has given up 17 runs in 1/3 of the number of innings. extrapolated out to represent an equal comparison to innings pitched by TN would be roughly 47.
BB - (base on balls) number of batters "walked" by the pitcher.
WP - (wild pitch) when his pitch is so errant that the catcher is unable to control it and, as a result, baserunner(s) advance.
HP - (Hit by pitch) number of batters the pitcher has hit with a pitch

Great Analysis...Thanks for Sharing.

As Freshman Burns and Beam are having fantastic years. We play in the best Conference in America so their numbers are skewed and would be even better if they were playing elsewhere.

Think about it the SEC has a chance to Send 5 teams to Omaha.

I cannot speak to Notre Dame's schedule but they did not have the Grind of a SEC team week in and week out.

We need to take the Officiating out of the game today. I think our Regionals and Supers has proven that they are not consistent in their calls. A lot of our fans were complaining about our hitters were swinging at bad pitches and in some cases they were because the UMPs were calling some of those strikes that were balls.
IOW, they were tightening up the Zone on our Pitchers and widening it on opponents Pitching....

 

[LordVOLdemort]

Nice write up, @Volstylexx.

Here’s mine, not as analytical but:

WGWTFA

 

[Volfan2012]

Put an 8 run inning on them again and Let's go to Omaha.

 

[cardvolfan]

Since the NCAA went to the Super Regional format in 1999, 22 of 35 host teams went on to advance to the College World Series (CWS) after winning game 2 and forcing a decisive game 3. That's 63%... so already that's good odds for us tomorrow from a historical perspective.

Notre Dame has announced Liam Simon as game 3's starter. Here's how his stats compare to either Beam or Burns (UT starter yet to be announced) Advantage highlighted in green: ** for some reason the html code on volnation doesn't recognize more than one space... so see the attached photo if you want a neat version of the numbers.

ERA Win/Loss. IP. Whip R.. SO. BB. WP. HP

(ND) Liam Simon 4.67 2-0. 27. 1.48. 17 49. 22. 7 6

(TN) Chase Burns. 2.69 8-1. 73.2. 1.14. 26. 98. 24. 5. 3

(TN) Drew Beam. 2.72. 8-1. 76. .93. 27. 62. 21. 2 5

Why do stats matter? Ever heard the saying "the Stats don't lie?" The stats tell a complete story of who a player is. Can a pitcher go crazy and have the game of his life? Sure. They can also have a bad game where they get lit up. See Blade Tidwell's Friday night performance and Bertrand's Saturday performance as examples... but stats tell us a pretty good story of what to expect from someone (especially once we reach the post-season due to the large sample size - number of games played).

An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to the starting pitchers. Remember, whoever doesn't start for TN will likely see action as a reliever, so our #1 and #2 tomorrow are both better than anything Notre Dame has left in the pen.. .but just for fun, let's compare TN's #3 and our closer to ND's #2 and we can throw Redmond in as well.

(ND) Jack Findlay. 2.23. 5-2 40.1 1.02. 12. 47. 13. 5. 3

(TN) Kirby Connell. 1.45. 4-0. 37.1. .83 10. 36. 6. 0. 2

(TN). R. Walsh. 2.58. 4-1. 38.1. .91. 12. 39. 10. 1. 1

See where the stats are taking us with this?? An overwhelming advantage to TN when it comes to relievers.

This isn't to say Notre Dame isn't good. In fact, ND pitching ranks 7th in the nation. It's just that Tennessee's depth is ridiculous: #1 ERA, #1 Whip, #1 in Hits allowed per 9 innings. Tennessee needs patient at-bats, make their pitchers work, and score early and often. We have the depth to counter anything they throw at us. Good news: Vols also lead the nation in the number of walks earned per game, while leading the nation in the least number of walks given up per game. It took a perfect game from ND to beat us 8-6 in game one.. then teams reverted back to their averages in game 2. We saw the outcome of that. We don't need to be great tomorrow. We just need to be average and we will be back in the College World Series. GO BIG ORANGE!


Glossary of terms for those who may not be versed in baseball terminology

ERA - (Earned Runs Allowed) - the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings
IP - Innings Pitched
WHIP - is one of the most commonly used statistics for evaluating a pitcher's performance. The statistic shows how well a pitcher has kept runners off the bases -- it's the sum of a pitcher's walks and hits, divided by his total innings pitched. When it comes to Major League-caliber pitchers a good WHIP is around 1.00. Anything below 1.00 is outstanding (potential Cy Young worthy) since it demonstrates how dominant a pitcher is. (Wiki, 2022).
R - Runs given up (ND Pitcher has given up 17 runs in 1/3 of the number of innings. extrapolated out to represent an equal comparison to innings pitched by TN would be roughly 47.
BB - (base on balls) number of batters "walked" by the pitcher.
WP - (wild pitch) when his pitch is so errant that the catcher is unable to control it and, as a result, baserunner(s) advance.
HP - (Hit by pitch) number of batters the pitcher has hit with a pitch

Really good info. I would add that the big concern for us against Simon is this: in only 27 innings, he has 49 strike outs, which is nearly 2 per inning. The guy also has 22 walks in 27 innings giving him a walk ratio of 7.3 walks per nine innings. The fact that he strikes out 16.3 batters per nine innings means he’s got high velocity or great stuff with his secondary pitches. Regardless, the more strike outs you have as a team offensively, the less damage you do while he’s in there. Vols are going to have to be very selective at the plate, and they’re going to have to get bats on the ball and limit strikeouts. Simon has allowed a weak .182 BA to opponents.

 

[BruisedOrange]

** for some reason the html code on volnation doesn't recognize more than one space... so see the attached photo if you want a neat version of the numbers.

ERA Win/Loss. IP. Whip R.. SO. BB. WP. HP

(ND) Liam Simon 4.67 2-0. 27. 1.48. 17 49. 22. 7 6

Great stuff, Volstylexx. Thanks!

Here's a "cheat" for anyone wanting to post stats that really need columns to be understood:

Instead of using your spacebar between columns, use another character (like periods). But first, highlight your stats and specify a font from the A icon in the edit bar. Otherwise, the reader's preferred font will distort your arrangement.

....................................ERA..........Win/Loss........IP...........Whip.......R........SO......BB.....WP......HP
(ND) Liam Simon........4.67...............2-0..............27...........1.48........17........49.......22.......7.........6

Now highlight those spacing characters and change their color to white. They will appear as invisible spaces to anyone viewing in white screen mode (and drive crazy anyone viewing in dark mode).

....................................ERA..........Win/Loss........IP...........Whip.......R........SO......BB.....WP......HP
(ND) Liam Simon........4.67...............2-0..............27...........1.48........17........49.......22.......7.........6

Is it tedious to do? Sure. But hey--ya gotta want it! And you have to love your fellow VFLs.

 

[Volstylexx]

Great stuff, Volstylexx. Thanks!

Here's a "cheat" for anyone wanting to post stats that really need columns to be understood:

Instead of using your spacebar between columns, use another character (like periods). But first, highlight your stats and specify a font from the A icon in the edit bar. Otherwise, the reader's preferred font will distort your arrangement.

....................................ERA..........Win/Loss........IP...........Whip.......R........SO......BB.....WP......HP
(ND) Liam Simon........4.67...............2-0..............27...........1.48........17........49.......22.......7.........6

Now highlight those spacing characters and change their color to white. They will appear as invisible spaces to anyone viewing in white screen mode (and drive crazy anyone viewing in dark mode).

....................................ERA..........Win/Loss........IP...........Whip.......R........SO......BB.....WP......HP
(ND) Liam Simon........4.67...............2-0..............27...........1.48........17........49.......22.......7.........6

Is it tedious to do? Sure. But hey--ya gotta want it! And you have to love your fellow VFLs.

Thanks, Bruised!

 

[LeannaVol]

Vols should win but another stat is overall number 1 seed hasn’t won College World Series in 20 plus years. Baseball is a strange sport where 1 player for each team can dictate outcome.

 

[westtnvoljackson]

One of the biggest choke jobs ever.

 

[cwbytruckers]

Next year lose the antics and just play ball

 

[Chickenfarmer]

I

Yup. No comparison between the two offenses… and no metic for the passion Gilbert will bring to the game tomorrow.

TN ranks 1st in the nation in runs compared to 81st for ND
TN ranks 1st in the nation in Homeruns compared to 69th for ND
TN ranks 1st in the nation in slugging compared to 59th for ND
TN ranks 4th in on base percentage compared to 121 for ND
TN ranks 3rd in the nation in doubles compared to 120th for ND
TN ranks 12th in the nation in batting average compared to 46th for ND

Looks like we really got our butts kicked if we are so much better. Anybody can win any day at this level. The better team TODAY won.

 

[PC Jr.]

It’s all fun and games until you get smoked at home. They’ve got the off season to improve and figure out how to finish. On to football!

 

[tennesseeduke]

What a waste

 

[allvol123]

Did Drew Beam even throw a pitch this series? I don’t think he did. That is a mistake.