I would look at schools that have won it in the last 15 or so years...
USC
LSU
Ohio State
Miami
Oklahoma
Florida State
Tennessee
Michigan
Nebraska
Florida
Alabama
There are teams on that list in a downswing, though. Florida State, Nebraska, Michigan, and hate to say it, but Tennessee, too. The jury remains out on the likes of Alabama, Florida, LSU. Their coaches are unproven.
Teams I would add to the list that haven't won an NC recently are:
-Notre Dame (media darlings and Weiss appears to be the real deal)
-Virginia Tech (the ACC has gotten tougher, they still have something to prove)
-Texas (incredible recruiting base, the Big 12 appears to be sliding, but I am still not convinced that Mack Brown is a big game coach. We shall soon see I suppose)
-Georgia (believer in Richt, but the SEC is so damn tough)
-Auburn (heck, they have already went undefeated in a season, they just have to get some respect) How a team can come out of the SEC undefeated and not be in the title game is beyond me.
Teams that could get there with the right coaches:
-Penn State (Joe Pa should hang it up)
-Texas A&M (recruiting base and tradition, just not the coaches to go with it)
-UCLA (they have the same recruiting base as USC)
-Colorado (Barnett is all hype, and no substance. They were a strong team back in the early 90's)
-Arizona
-Washington