rbroyles
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For all practical purposes, the Chase has come down to three drivers with three races to go. Although it is mathematically possible for all twelve Chasers to win, it is very unlikely any others could move into true contention.
It is now at the point where any miscue means elimination, in fact I'm saying it will take finishing all three final races in the top five. Someone will do it, perhaps more than one. With the threesome of Johnson, Hamlin and Harvick being separated by only 38 pts, any can win it.
Johnson has the advantage of having been here before and winning it, not to mention the lead. Hamlin follows by fourteen points, only two positions and a lap leader bonus out of taking the lead. Harvick has the most to make up, the 38 points. Neither has been champion before, so the "hungry" level should be equal, but does the desire to win an incredible fifth straight on the part of Johnson match the hunger level of the other two?
Team strength is important, so who has that advantage? The 48 team certainly comes to mind for me, and the 29 team has just switched the over-the-wall gang with the 33 car, but that could prove to be more of a disadvantage.
Past history at the remaining three tracks could be insightful, so how does that work out? At Texas Johnson has one win, seven top 5s and ten top 10s, Hamlin has one, four and seven with Harvick having zero, three and seven. Advantage Johnson? Well maybe, but Hamlin's win came in the first race this year.
At Phoenix, Johnson has four wins, Hamlin one and Harvick zero. At Homestead Hamlin has the only win from last year among the three contenders. Johnson has the most wins at the three tracks, Hamlin has the most recent wins.
While it appears Johnson should have the edge, with Hamlin next most likely, I am going to predict the winner of the Chase to be Kevin Harvick. Why? Well it is that intangible thing, the finishing second at Talladega in a car that should have been junk kind of determination and fickle luck seems to be on his side. We shall see.
It is now at the point where any miscue means elimination, in fact I'm saying it will take finishing all three final races in the top five. Someone will do it, perhaps more than one. With the threesome of Johnson, Hamlin and Harvick being separated by only 38 pts, any can win it.
Johnson has the advantage of having been here before and winning it, not to mention the lead. Hamlin follows by fourteen points, only two positions and a lap leader bonus out of taking the lead. Harvick has the most to make up, the 38 points. Neither has been champion before, so the "hungry" level should be equal, but does the desire to win an incredible fifth straight on the part of Johnson match the hunger level of the other two?
Team strength is important, so who has that advantage? The 48 team certainly comes to mind for me, and the 29 team has just switched the over-the-wall gang with the 33 car, but that could prove to be more of a disadvantage.
Past history at the remaining three tracks could be insightful, so how does that work out? At Texas Johnson has one win, seven top 5s and ten top 10s, Hamlin has one, four and seven with Harvick having zero, three and seven. Advantage Johnson? Well maybe, but Hamlin's win came in the first race this year.
At Phoenix, Johnson has four wins, Hamlin one and Harvick zero. At Homestead Hamlin has the only win from last year among the three contenders. Johnson has the most wins at the three tracks, Hamlin has the most recent wins.
While it appears Johnson should have the edge, with Hamlin next most likely, I am going to predict the winner of the Chase to be Kevin Harvick. Why? Well it is that intangible thing, the finishing second at Talladega in a car that should have been junk kind of determination and fickle luck seems to be on his side. We shall see.
