Why does anyone outside of 1-4 still have a chance?

#1
Other_Guy

Other_Guy

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#1
Ok so I'm trying to understand the logic here. The committee and I think pretty much everyone thinks TCU and USC currently deserve to be ranked 3 & 4 and OSU and to a lesser extent Bama and UT just misses.

Yet those 2 teams have everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing this weekend.

Why would even OSU be rewarded for losing to Michigan and let in if even USC falls? Maybe I'm just hearing locally that "if TCU loses they're out" and most the experts and you on here don't agree and it's just a matter of the USC game...

I get blowouts and major injuries can play a role but I simply can't understand why you potentially penalize those teams. Happened to Auburn a few years back and I was very upset, arguing to the Bammers I work with. Auburn was #4 had beaten Georgia and Bama and then was forced to play in Atlanta for a rematch and a loss let Bama leapfrog them for #4. Boggled my mind.
 
#2
#2
USC would have 2 losses and did not win their conference championship. That puts them alongside OSU and the other 2 loss teams in terms of being evaluated against each other. And they don't have a big win over a team at the top either.

TCU would not win their conference championship and has the schedule problem. They don't have that big win over another team at the top like UGA, UM, OSU, and TN do. Alabama doesn't either.
 
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#4
#4
Would go against years of CFP committee comments that teams should not be punished for playing for their conference championship.

But... no one trusts them not to just take the chance to throw Alabama and Ohio State in if they can.

Which is the reason that Josh Pate and others are wrong about the playoff expansion. The CFP, the BCS, and the cluster of bowl and polling politics before it were always bad products for fans.
 
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#5
#5
To put it in perspective if TCU were to lose they are then alongside of OSU. OSU has a win over Penn State who is in the top 10. TCU would not have that type of win.

USC then gets compared to the other 2 loss teams. TN has wins over Bama and LSU. USC has a couple of wins but they are teams in the bottom 10 of the poll. They would have lost to Utah twice and they did not play Washington.
 
#6
#6
USC has an SOS of 57 worst among the top 10 teams.

This will improve; however if they lose every other metric will decrease.

Their SOR is 6th, FPI is 14th, their best wins are over 9-3 UCLA and 8-4 ND

If they lose they will have 2 losses and no championship……..they don’t have enough to get in the playoff.

OSU has wins vs the same ND team and the 8th ranked P-ST team. They have 34th SOS, 4th SOR, 3rd FPI and just the 1 loss

Tennessee and Bama both would have better metrics than USC……if they were to lose USC gets that 2nd loss and no championship……they simply have nothing over OSU, Tennessee or Bama.
 
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#7
#7
Odiodin said:
Would go against years of CFP committee comments that teams should not be punished for playing for their conference championship.
Click to expand...

If they lose they do not win their conference championship. Losers of the conference championship games very seldom make the playoffs. It has always been this way. And there was one year where a team from the BIG12 was not selected - the reason given was that the conference did not have a championship game to identify a true conference winner.
 
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#9
#9
The thing is this is a must win game for USC. TCU might, key word might, survive a close loss, but they would not survive a bad loss. Neither team has the resume 5, 6 and 7 have.
 
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#10
#10
To me, TCU and USC are there simply because they are leading their conference and most hold serve by winning it. I think TCU should be in no matter what, but USC is definitely playing for their CFP life… If Bama somehow makes it in, I won’t watch a minute of the 4 team playoff ever again.
 
#11
#11
TNVOLFN said:
To me, TCU and USC are there simply because they are leading their conference and most hold serve by winning it. I think TCU should be in no matter what, but USC is definitely playing for their CFP life… If Bama somehow makes it in, I won’t watch a minute of the 4 team playoff ever again.
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Well - Get ready to not ever watch a minute of the 4 team playoff ever again….. although that only means not watching for two years at this point :D Bama will back into the playoffs if USC and TCU lose.
 
#12
#12
volfan102455 said:
If they lose they do not win their conference championship. Losers of the conference championship games very seldom make the playoffs. It has always been this way. And there was one year where a team from the BIG12 was not selected - the reason given was that the conference did not have a championship game to identify a true conference winner.
Click to expand...

And this year a conference championship game may cost them a spot.

The point is the goal posts keep changing.
 
#13
#13
Just wait, if TCU and USC both get blown out and Bama gets the 4th spot. Imagine the uproar from us Vol fans
 
#14
#14
I was thinking at first that TCU would be out with a loss but after thinking it over more I believe they are in no matter, their body of work is better than Ohio State so if they lose I think they still edge out Ohio State for the fourth spot with a USC win, if USC loses then they will definitely drop out of the equation and Ohio State gets in but I dont see a scenario where Alabama gets in unless it really is a corrupt deal.
 
#15
#15
KeyVol14 said:
Just wait, if TCU and USC both get blown out and Bama gets the 4th spot. Imagine the uproar from us Vol fans
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Let’s hope TCU and USC win as I don’t want to think about “what could’ve been” if TN beat USCjr.
 
#16
#16
Boone&Crockett said:
I was thinking at first that TCU would be out with a loss but after thinking it over more I believe they are in no matter, their body of work is better than Ohio State so if they lose I think they still edge out Ohio State for the fourth spot with a USC win, if USC loses then they will definitely drop out of the equation and Ohio State gets in but I dont see a scenario where Alabama gets in unless it really is a corrupt deal.
Click to expand...
It is a really corrupt deal….. GBO.
 
#17
#17
JoAllan said:
USC has an SOS of 57 worst among the top 10 teams.

This will improve; however if they lose every other metric will decrease.

Their SOR is 6th, FPI is 14th, their best wins are over 9-3 UCLA and 8-4 ND

If they lose they will have 2 losses and no championship……..they don’t have enough to get in the playoff.

OSU has wins vs the same ND team and the 8th ranked P-ST team. They have 34th SOS, 4th SOR, 3rd FPI and just the 1 loss

Tennessee and Bama both would have better metrics than USC……if they were to lose USC gets that 2nd loss and no championship……they simply have nothing over OSU, Tennessee or Bama.
Click to expand...

USC would have a better record, but that's it.
 
#19
#19
Tv is desperate to get Ohio st in but only if TCU loses bad. Tv will take USC
 
#20
#20
volfan102455 said:
If they lose they do not win their conference championship. Losers of the conference championship games very seldom make the playoffs. It has always been this way. And there was one year where a team from the BIG12 was not selected - the reason given was that the conference did not have a championship game to identify a true conference winner.
Click to expand...
But you're going to have to explain to me how they think tcu and usc are better right now without a champ game... yet if they lose a close game against a good team they think they're worse than osu?
 
#21
#21
TCNC53 said:
It is a really corrupt deal….. GBO.
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TCU could get whipped by KSU if that did happen there would be reason to consider dropping them. If it is super close loss they probably survive. But if it gets 2 scores and over they are on shaky ground. Same if Michigan pulled a flop and lost ugly anything is possible. It probably won’t happen but crazier things have. I will be happy to secure Orange and anything else is welcome gravy. GBO!
 
#22
#22
livefaith said:
USC would have a better record, but that's it.
Click to expand...

Well we’re basically talking if they lose.

If they lose they won’t have anything better.

Not record, no championship. Only thing they would have is they played an extra game…..but lost.

If they win, their SOS goes down (just by playing), their SOR, their record, another good win, and a conference championship. SOS still not near as strong as Tennessee but they would have everything needed and I don’t think folks could argue they shouldn’t be there.
 
#24
#24
KeyVol14 said:
My arguement is Bama doesn’t deserve to be ahead of us
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Understand. That’s why I want USC and TCU to win as Bama would get in if both lose. That would add salt to the wound and be deflating for TN fans. I think we would’ve been #5 if TN would’ve beaten USCjr.
 
#25
#25
Personally, I don’t think conference championship losses should hurt a team. Should be a no lose situation. Not fair to reward teams who aren’t good enough to be playing for on championship Saturday
 
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