PAYING WOMEN TO HAVE CHILDREN
By Donald Sensing on October 20, 2006 7:58 PM | 32 Comments
Through the efforts of journalists such as Mark Steyn and others, the peril of Europe's low birthrates is becoming better known. An industrialized society must average 2.1 births per woman simply to maintain a level population number. More than that, poplulation rises, less and it falls.
Most European nations have lower-than-stable birth rates, and many have rates so low that they have been termed a "death spiral," too low to recover without massive changes in social mores and economic-legal standards that seem most unlikely. The Stanford Review explains,
Not even one EU member state has a fertility rate that will replace the death rate... . In fact, eleven EU countries, including Germany, Austria, Hungary and Italy have a negative population growth rate. Instead of Europeans, the population is being replaced by Muslims, whose birth rates are much higher than those of Europeans. French cities such as Lyon and Marseilles have become mostly Muslim Arab cities. European identity is being usurped, and Europe is in a death spiral, demographically and culturally.
The International herald Tribune reported in September on "Empty playgrounds in an aging Italy."
genoa There are hundreds of stores in the Fiumara Mall - Sephora, Elan, Lavazza Cafe. But in a nation long known for its hordes of children, there is not one toy store in the sprawling mix, and a shiny merry-go-round stands dormant.
"This is a place for old people," said Francesco Lotti, 24, strolling with his fiancee in Genoa's medieval old town. "Just look around. You don't see young people." Even for people their age, "there are not many places - no clubs, for example." Playgrounds? He looks quizzically at his fiancee. They can count them on a few fingers.
While all of Europe has suffered from declining birthrates, nowhere has the drop been as profound and prolonged as in this once gorgeous Mediterranean city, the capital of Italy's graying Liguria region. Genoa provides a vision of Europe's aging future, displaying the challenges that face a society with more old than young, and suggesting how hard it will be to reverse the downward population spiral.
Nowhere, though, is the issue more urgent than in Russia.
Russia has the highest death rates among all countries with at least moderate levels of economic development. The present life expectancy for a typical male is about 58 years, below what it was 20 years ago in Russia. ... Even more worrisome to many Russians are the very low birth rates during the past couple of decades. The total fertility rate- the number of children born to the average woman over her lifetime- is expected to be just 1.28 in 2006, or just a little more than one per couple. Russian fertility is among the lowest in the world. ... The Russian decline is currently about 700,000 persons per year, but the rate of decline will accelerate as the number of women in childbearing ages continues to fall. A World Bank report projects that with unchanged birth and death rates, Russia's population would fall from its present level of about 140 million persons to under 100 million by the year 2050. If this happens, such a huge nation would then be largely empty of people.
The old Soviet government "offered Medals of Glory to mothers who had many children," but the Russian government
has proposed a ten-year program with very generous benefits for Russian women who have a second child- about 70 per cent of Russian women of child-bearing ages presently either have no children or only one child. Under his plan, women who do have a second child will get up to $110 more per month in child allowances, they would be able to take leave from work for up to eighteen months while receiving 40 per cent of their salaries, and they would get larger subsidies for child care. But the most novel aspect of Putin's proposal is to give a cash bonus of over $9000 to women who have a second child. This bonus is considerably larger than the annual earnings of a typical Russian worker, men or women, and it could be used for mortgage payments and for many other large outlays. Putin acknowledges that this program would require lots of money (perhaps 1 per cent of Russian gdp), but he claims that it is necessary in order to "change the attitude of the whole society to the family and its values".
Meanwhile, back in France, the government has awakened, too, and is offering financial incentives for more children. Unlike Genoa and other Italian cities, French cities are far from devoid of children. Reports the WaPo,
When the municipal day-care center ran out of space because of a local baby boom, the town government gave Maylis Staub and her husband $200 a month to defray the cost of a "maternal assistant" to care for their two children. ...
While falling birthrates threaten to undermine economies and social stability across much of an aging Europe, French fertility rates are increasing. France now has the second-highest fertility rate in Europe -- 1.94 children born per woman, exceeded slightly by Ireland's rate of 1.99. ...
France heavily subsidizes children and families from pregnancy to young adulthood with liberal maternity leaves and part-time work laws for women. The government also covers some child-care costs of toddlers up to 3 years old and offers free child-care centers from age 3 to kindergarten, in addition to tax breaks and discounts on transportation, cultural events and shopping.
This summer, the government -- concerned that French women still were not producing enough children to guarantee a full replacement generation -- very publicly urged French women to have even more babies. A new law provides greater maternity leave benefits, tax credits and other incentives for families who have a third child. During a year-long leave after the birth of the third child, mothers will receive $960 a month from the government, twice the allowance for the second child.
This being France, the subsidies of children are not only cash incentives but also a burgeoning of the socialist state apparatus, with very generous, paid work leaves and even tax deductions for nanny payments.
We should recognize that the United States also subsidizes children with deductions from taxable income amounting to several thousand dollars per child and certain child-related expenses - but unlike Russia and France, there is no increase in the financial incentive for more than one child.
French women may yet achieve true replacement rates of birth. But even with Russia's strong financial incentives for having children, its birth rate is so low that even an enormous improvement - say a demographically huge increase of one-third from the present 1.28 births per woman to 1.7 - means that the country's rate of decline slows but does not stop. And no one really expects such a large increase to be attained.
But bless them for trying. It has to be done.
http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/paying_women_to_have_children.html
