Latest ESPN FPI: Vols projected favorites in nine games

With several key players from last year’s squad moving on, it’s hard for most to imagine a scenario where Tennessee wins nine games in 2017, but ESPN’s latest FPI projects the Vols as favorites against nine of its regular season opponents this year.

• Forum discussion: Latest ESPN FPI has Vols favorites in nine games

Now, for clarity, that doesn’t mean Tennessee is expected to win a total of nine games. As our resident VolNation statisticians will tell you, the odds of winning all nine of those games is different than the individual odds of winning each game. The FPI actually predicts an 8-4 overall record. Clear as mud?

Florida, Alabama, and LSU are projected losses, according to the index.

ESPN doesn’t give Tennessee much of a chance to beat Alabama on the road.  The odds of winning that one are a mere 13.5%. Not surprising, really.

Florida in Gainesville? There’s only a 37.9% probability that Tennesse pulls off consecutive wins against the Gators, according to the FPI.

The Game against LSU will be played at Neyland Stadium, and of the three projected losses, Tennessee has the highest chance (40.5%) of knocking off the Tigers.

Here’s the full schedule using the FPI to predict each game:

1. Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
2. Indiana State (W) 98.9%
3. Florida (L) 37.9%
4. Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
5. Georgia (W) 51.3%
6. South Carolina (W) 75.7%
7. Alabama (L) 13.5%
8. Kentucky (W) 60.0%
9. Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
10. Missouri (W) 64.3%
11. LSU (L) 40.5%
12. Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%

A few more details:

• FPI (rank): 13.4 (19)
• Projected W-L: 7.9 – 4.3 (32)
• Chance of winning out: 0%
• Chance of winning conference: 3.7%
• SOS rank: 30