Dougherty’s Diatribe

As we wrap up the ’07 season it’s a time to be thankful that we are blessed to live in the region of the country where college football is important. And as the last regular season game approaches for the Vols, the importance of winning is enormous. The team written off for dead following blowout losses at Florida and Alabama has managed to make enough plays to earn a shot at an SEC Title wit a win Saturday.

I’m still blown away by the thought of this Tennessee team being good enough to win their division. But, you have to give this group of coaches and players credit for pulling closer together and for figuring out a way to win seven out of eight. I will be in Atlanta for the SEC Title. The question, will the Vols join me?

So what happens in Lexington? I must admit that I was surprised to see the line open up with Kentucky listed as a one and a half point favorite. It promptly jumped to three points.

Tennessee is more difficult to figure out than any point spread. When the Vols choose to run the football they seem to have tremendous success, dictate the pace of the game and win. Establishing and leaning on the run game Saturday should be the plan. Arian Foster has been productive when called upon and is averaging five and a half yards per carry. However, Foster has not carried the football more than twenty-three times in a game this year. If Tennessee goes to Arian Foster with consistency Saturday, the Vols will get the win. The gameplan should look like this: run the ball, churn the clock and keep Andre Woodson and the Wildcat playmakers on the sidelines. It’s the same plan the men in orange used a couple of weeks ago against another dangerous offense. Tennessee will see a much different style of attack from Kentucky than Arkansas displayed but the plan should be the same.

The problem for Tennessee is that Kentucky has the ability to score many points, and do so in a hurry. If the Vols cannot establish the run and if they get into a shootout with the Cats it could be a long day for Coach Fulmer’s bunch. With a win, UK gets to .500 in the conference, 8-4 overall and they dramatically improve their bowl position.

As Tennessee fans try to figure out which Vols team will show up Saturday, fans in the commonwealth are wondering as well. Since beating LSU in mid-October, the Wildcats have dropped three out of four. Offensively UK has struggled to find the fireworks that lit up the big blue sky during the first half of the season. Kentucky has averaged only 18 points per game in their last three.

So who will win? I think the match-up actually favors Kentucky because the strength of the Cats offense will go head up with the Vols primary weakness. Kentucky’s pass offense against the Tennessee secondary could be the deciding factor. Andre Woodson is talented enough to take advantage of an inexperienced Tennessee secondary.

The last time I thought the match-ups favored Tennessee’s opponents, the Vols dominated Arkansas. This time I think the match-ups favor Kentucky and therefore I’ll take the Cats 38-30.

Heisman locked up?

I received my Heisman ballot this week and barring an unforeseen set of circumstances, Florida sophomore QB Tim Tebow will get my vote. Dennis Dixon likely had the inside shot until he tore his ACL in a loss to Arizona. Look for the national media to lobby for Todd Reesing or Chase Daniel following this weekends mammoth battle between Kansas and Missouri. Both QB’s have sensational numbers and the winning signal caller will be right there in the National Title hunt.

However, Tebow should win. He is having the best individual season in Southeastern Conference history. The SEC record for total touchdowns was 41. Tebow now has an unbelievable 46. And, he has two more games with which to accumulate more stats. Tebow has also broken the SEC record for rushing touchdowns in a season. He is the only college player to have ever achieved 20+ rushing and passing touchdowns in a year. With all of the rushing success, Tebow has been as or more dangerous throwing the ball. He is the #2 rated passer in America and is completing 69% of his passes. I know he’s just a sophomore and I know his team has three losses. But what player has been more productive than Tim Tebow this year?

If you said Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree, I’d have to give you that one. Consider a freshman wide receiver with 125 receptions for almost 1,900 yards and 21 touchdowns. Yeah, I would probably have to give you that, but he won’t win so it doesn’t matter. Tim Tebow will take home the hardware.

Have a great Thanksgiving! Happy football watching!

–Brent Dougherty.