The Rearview 7-14

Thanks to OWH this week I have a topic. And I know you’re not supposed to do this, but I’ll apologize in advance, as this week’s pining is probably a bit redundant. And besides, with the credit for the idea, OWH can share the blame. Thanks buddy!

The prognostication about prognostication. As we draw closer to the 2008 football season, for many of us the objectivity that we left 2007 with has gone out the window. And that’s not just meant for the homiest of homers mind you. Those of you that always have a glass ½ empty of bourbon are down to about a 1/3 of a glass these days.

So where is the truth? Well, I’ll tell you. You can thank me later. Or not, but if the season turns out about like this, well, then you will have the ability to say “I knew Jakez way back when…….” If I’m wrong, I’ll get flogged mercilessly, and deservedly so.

Either way, it’ll be fun.

The truth:

Taking schedule, players, coaches, home/away games etc…all in to account, I have to look at Florida as the team that should be projected to win the East. Georgia fans will have a problem with that and that’s ok, but Matt Stafford isn’t better than Tim Tebow and if GA played 9 games in state, the opposite might be true. But the areas that GA is superior to FL aren’t enough to overcome GA’s schedule: @ South Carolina (they beat Georgia last year…), @Arizona St.—which could be a much better game than some are anticipating it to be, Alabama comes in to town looking to prove they’ve made progress, Tennessee comes to town next after a bye week, and Georgia presumably would want some payback for the drubbing the Vols have put on the Dawgs the past two years. From there, we go 6 weeks, and end the season, w/out playing a down in Athens, GA. On the road @LSU, @Jacksonville for the FL game, @ KY, @ Auburn and then in ATL for Ga Tech. Six, only six, games between the hedges this year. 10-2 against this schedule would be very, very good. Anything more than 10 wins and GA is in the national title hunt. I, however, see slip ups @Auburn, @ Florida and possibly one more……from the group of Az. St, Bama, Tennessee, LSU. But Georgia is good enough to go 10-2 against this schedule.

Florida on the contrary has a schedule set up for another SEC (at least) title run. They open with home games against Hawaii and Miami, but neither should realistically be “better” than Florida. The Miami game should be competitive, I’ll give it that, but this isn’t your daddy’s Hurricanes blowing in to town. Then it’s off to the conf. schedule that opens up at Tennessee. Florida should go in to this game very confident. The dirty little secret though is, so should Tennessee. I’m biased, but I’m expecting a very, very different Tennessee/Florida game this year. The rest of the schedule is doable, with the biggie being Georgia in Jacksonville, a defacto home game for the Gators. They get LSU at home, Auburn drops off the schedule and they pick up a depleted Arkansas team. End up the year with Vandy, South Carolina, the Citadel and a rebuilding FSU team on the road. Realistically, how many games on this schedule will Florida not be the favorite in? Maybe one. 10-11 wins for the Gators is almost a reality. If they beat GA, get ready, Florida will be on a short list of national title contenders. And they have THE most recognizable college football player in the country coming back after winning the Heisman. And despite the hype surrounding Georgia this year, don’t forget that Florida is the program that has turned in 3 straight top 5 recruiting classes…. A side note about their schedule…..they play three games outside the state of Florida…..TN in Knoxville, Vandy in Nashville, and Arkansas in Fayetteville.

Tennessee on the other hand is right in the middle. The away schedule is not quite as brutal as Georgia’s, but it’s no picnic…@UCLA to open on Labor Day night, @Georgia, @ Auburn, @ South Carolina. Home games against Florida and Alabama ease the pain a little. But more than the schedule, coaching and qb change is a factor for Tennessee. The difference right now between Tennessee and the other two favorites in the East is that the other two aren’t breaking in basically an entirely new offensive coaching staff and…AND…a new quarterback. Tough sledding in a division that has Matt Stafford and Tim Tebow and two coaches that have won SEC titles in the last decade. Yet, I happen to think these are good changes. Obviously if the new qb struggles, that could spell doom for the season. The two big road games are too much for a new qb in the SEC. @ Auburn and @ Georgia are the two games that I see us losing for sure. Looming are the Florida and Alabama games. I have to like our chances in these two games……a) we’re at home (we were undefeated in Neyland Stadium last year…..) b) we just have to win these two. No pressure. 10-2 is not out of the question for this Volunteer football team. Neither is 8-4. 9-3 though is more likely, even we were fortunate enough to beat Florida early on. But I’ll stay at 10-2.

And I’ll give a little more credit to VN regular…..Volunteerhillbilly was kind enough to point out that both Georgia and Florida play LSU. It would be great if LSU was good enough to beat both of them. Since we don’t play the Tigers this season, that could be the game on both the Gators’ and Dawgs’ schedule that could swing the division title pendulum our way, provided we take care of business as well…..

So, if you believe me, and why wouldn’t you, there are three teams that could realistically go 10+ wins each. Would there be any debate at that point about the SEC East and its relative dominance over college football?

Anyway, we all know the personnel from each team; it’s been debated on here to death. The talent levels at Florida and Georgia are better than Tennessee right now, but not so much to say that we’ve reverted to not being CAPABLE of winning those games. In fact, I think the gap closed just a little big between last year and this year, possibly making this year one of the most competitive years in the SEC East. I think all three teams are capable of doing very well this year, and competing at a high level, not just with each other. All that said, I think for us to win the Division, a few things would have fall our way.

In the end, Florida wins the East at 11-1 and plays Auburn at 10-2, with a shot at a national title on the line. Both teams have enough talent returning (Auburn gets the edge over LSU who just lost too much to go back to Atlanta and Alabama who is still a year or so away from breaking back in to the “elite”) and schedules that set up for title runs. Tennessee and Georgia finish tied for 2nd, Georgia has the tie breaker, and in the West it’s LSU 2nd and Alabama 3rd. Georgia gets a BCS at large, we go to the Citrus Bowl, Auburn to the Cotton, LSU to the Outback, Alabama to the Peach, South Carolina to the Music City and Mississippi State to the Liberty.

Can’t wait, though it will all be anticlimactic since you all know how it will end now.

Go Vols.