SEC Breakdown

What’s up Volnation? As I compose this fluff piece I think about the garbage I have to take out in the morning, the kids I must get ready for school, the job for which I must give full effort while thinking about how college football starts next week. And, obviously orange and white face painters believe football season begins on Labor Day evening. Either way, the movement is afoot and any kind of significant concentration level is difficult to attain.

2008 Column Direction:

Each week I’ll give my take on each SEC game and I will do so by picking the winner of the game while giving you the score. I will encourage you to e-mail me and tell me where you think I am absolutely out of my mind or if you think I’m dead on with my selection. I will then expect to see your breakdown of whatever game you choose with a score. When you are right, I will not offer to you posterity on volnation.com as I reprint what you said would happen after it happens. I’ll do this with a post weekend wrap up piece where I will hopefully tear my rotator cuff patting myself on the back each week. In reality, I will share with everyone just how right you are. Be prepared to show your expertise by participating with this interactive column. I do wish that I had some great prize to offer up each week but I am an out of work radio guy. So, volnation.com mentions will have to do. I trust that’s alright.

Go ahead and lock in my e-mail address, so you can give me your lock each week. Hit me up: brentdougherty@comcast.net

 

5 Teams have a shot:

With all do respect to the Dawgs, there is no way Georgia will play for the 2008 National Title. It is, after all, the 20 year anniversary of the single Don’t Believe The Hype, released by political satirist rappers Public Enemy. The Bulldogs will celebrate this anniversary by being ranked as the pre-season consensus number one team in America, only to perhaps finish third in their own division. They may be the most talented group in the conference and perhaps even the nation, however, the Bulldogs will not be playing for it all in January. Have you glanced at the UGA schedule? The Dawgs play at #26 South Carolina, at #15 Arizona St., they host #24 Alabama and #18 Tennessee, hit the road for LSU, battle the Gators in Jacksonville, then play in Lexington and Auburn. There is no way that table gets run.

Although some will point out that two years ago Florida lost at Auburn and then blew out Ohio St. to win it all and last year LSU lost twice before whipping the Buckeyes to carry the hardware. The problem this year goes back to scheduling. The Ohio St. v. USC winner will have the inside track and so will the loser. The reason, neither schedule is particularly difficult.

Here are five teams that could win it all in 2008 with a strong concentration on schedule.

Georgia: Who made this schedule? The Bulldogs play an unbelievable 7 of the preseason Top 26. And, only two of those games are in Athens! Though they have the most talent from top to bottom in the nation, Georgia will finish a disappointing 9-3.

USC: The Trojans play three teams ranked in the AP pre-season Top 26 and they play them all at home. USC is replacing a big portion of the starting roster and Mark Sanchez is a real question at QB. USC will lose to Ohio St. and at least one Pac Ten team that they probably shouldn’t. The men of Troy go 10-2.

Ohio St.: The Buckeyes play only four preseason ranked teams and only two on the road. Ohio St. will win in L.A. but watch out in Madison. Ohio St. finishes 11-1 with a Michigan beat down officially sending the Buckeyes to their annual National Title loss.

Florida: The Gators have a chance to get back to trophy holding position. Florida adds Emanuel Moody and Chris Rainey to the already potent Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin attack. Plus, the Gators only leave the state for three games. The chompers finish 11-1.

By the way, watch out for West Virginia as the Mountaineers will throw a wrench into the Florida v. Ohio St. rematch. Pat White and Noel Devine offer up the best rushing production in America (7.3 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns last year while sharing time with current NFL RB Steve Slaton) and a traditionally weak schedule will cause people to be divided. But, in the end Florida will beat Ohio St. again to win it all for the second time in three years.

Here is a look at how the SEC will unfold with the conference record in parenthesis:

West:

1. Auburn (6-2) – The Tigers will have the best D in the League and will offer up match-up problems as Tony Franklin puts Kodi Burns in the Spread. Auburn plays Georgia, Tennessee and LSU at home. Note: the home team has won eight straight in the Auburn/LSU series. The Tigers will play at Bama but have won 6 in a row against the Tide. Watch out for the fun October tilt at West Virginia.

2. LSU(6-2) LSU gets Auburn and Florida on the road. And while the D will once again keep them in every game and help them win 10 of them, the issues at QB cost them in the two biggest.

3. Ole Miss(5-3) Check out the jump by the Rebs for first year coach Houston Nutt. Jevan Snead will be the newcomer of the year in the SEC at QB and Ole Miss will be the biggest surprise in all of college football.

4. Alabama(3-5) Saban will win big on a national stage. However, it will not be in 2008 as the Tide continues to battle depth issues and inconsistent QB play. At Georgia, Tennessee and LSU is tough.

5. Mississippi St.(2-6) Not the step forward State fans were hoping for coming off last year’s bowl run. It’s tough to win consistently in this league.

6. Arkansas(1-7) It will be tough to change the mindset of the offensive linemen to think pass block first instead of taking the first step after the snap forward. Plus, Petrino will not have the QB to properly run his system until Ryan Mallett becomes eligible next year.

East:

1. Florida(7-1) The lone blemish will come in Knoxville. New Vol play caller Dave Clawson will give teams fits, especially early in the schedule, with formations that can run four different plays out of them each time TN comes to the line. Florida catches TN early and will have to let the game come to them more than they like. But, the Gators get their shot at the National Title again meeting, and beating, Ohio St. for the trophy.

2. Georgia(6-2) As mentioned, the Bulldogs play 7 of the Top 26. That’s ridiculous. Georgia will finish 9-3 which will be an enormous disappointment. The losses will come at Arizona St., LSU and against Florida in the game formerly know as The World’s Largest Cocktail Party.

3. Tennessee(6-2) The Vols will be better than people think but still have to go to Georgia and to Auburn. 10-2 for the Vols in 2008. Tennessee has the best defensive player in the conference and many weapons on offense. Brandon Warren’s eligibility for 2008 makes Tennessee extremely dangerous. 9-3 would not be a surprise due to the unknowns but neither would 11-1 due to the returning and emerging talent as well as the fresh breath pumped into the offensive philosophy.

4. Vanderbilt(2-6) Beat Wake Forest and the Dores get the elusive Bowl bid. I was 9 the last time Vanderbilt played post season football. Ouch!

5. South Carolina(2-6) I know Gamecock fans, I need to lay off the slow jamz. But seriously, @Georgia, @Ole Miss, LSU, TN and @FL. I know the defense will be good and I know that you will be in games. But, what if you fall behind by two scores and have to throw?

6. Kentucky(1-7) Rich Brooks is an amazing Coach, but how much production did the Cats lose? Woodson, Little, Burton, Tamme and Pulley? Wow!

So column number one is in the books. Again, I love your feedback. Agree or disagree. Either way, I would love to hear from you. Have a great weekend and we’ll check in early next week to break down the initial SEC football weekend.

Brent Dougherty

brentdougherty@comcast.net

-Brent is a radio personality in Nashville, TN.