SEC Week 2 Picks

SEC Week 2 Picks

As I sit down to review last week’s picks and look ahead to Week 2, I must admit that I have just started the Tennessee v. UCLA game on DVR. I have to make sure that what I saw Monday night was true. That a team clearly better than the other at perhaps every position on both sides of the ball actually found a way to lose. No way that happened did it? Let me say this, I’m not going to go into how or why Tennessee inexplicably found a way not to win at UCLA. You all saw the game. Although, I do think that when the ’08 season concludes we may be more surprised by this result than we are right now. Moving on…

A summary report of my Week 1 picks:

Going in to the Tennessee/UCLA game, I’m thinking, “Alright, 10-2 straight up and 8-4 against the spread…that’s not a bad week.” And, going in to the weekend, I felt the best about the Tennessee pick. Oh well. 9-3 straight up and 7-5 ATS is where I sit after Week 1.

Spread teams that got me-South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Clemson and Tennessee. Spread winners-Vandy, Florida, LSU, Mississippi St., Auburn, Ole Miss and Kentucky.

Alabama rolled Clemson. Kentucky pounded the Ville. Georgia, Florida, Auburn and LSU all won easily. Vanderbilt and Ole Miss had blow out wins, as did South Carolina. Arkansas escaped. Sans the performances by Mississippi St. and Tennessee, the conference flexed its collective muscle. I heard one broadcaster over the weekend say that he thought that the SEC was the best conference. That it was an annual “given.” But, he said, the amazing element to this argument is that the Southeastern Conference continues to distance itself from the rest of the college football world.

Week 2:

Southern Mississippi at Auburn: Tigers by 17 ½

Normally this might be a bit of a trap game for an Alabama school against Southern Miss. And maybe it is. I’m still shocked that Jeff Bowers is no longer the coach of the Golden Eagles. I mean, seriously, how skewed are expectations when Coach B isn’t good enough at USM? That is one reason I think Auburn wins big. That, and the fact that AU has the best D in an amazingly good conference. Chris Todd gets the start at quarterback over Kodi Burns for the Tigers. And Auburn wins big!

My Pick: Auburn 27

Southern Miss. 3

Tulane at Alabama: Tide by 29 ½

No SEC team was more impressive in week one than the Tide – given the opponent and given the stage. Alabama had freshmen all over the field making plays which is obviously a troubling site for fans of other conference schools.  Two thoughts come to mind. A reliance on so many young players brings with it a tremendous upside but also likely at an inconsistent level of play. That will not matter this week as Tulane deals with more than playing a very good football team. The Tide will roll, but by 30?

My Pick: Alabama 38

Tulane 13

Central Michigan at Georgia: Dawgs by 24

Another stiff challenge for the men in red and black! Easy to say that now with South Carolina on the road next week; followed by a trip to Arizona St.; then Alabama and Tennessee at home; A trip to Baton Rouge; Florida in Jacksonville; at Auburn and then the annual finale with Georgia Tech. But all of that is then and this is now. Focus on one week at a time right? Will Georgia look ahead? No.

My Pick: Georgia 31

C.Michigan 10

Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas: Hogs by 13

So Arkansas needs two late touchdowns to get past Western Illinois? Am I the only person here who was unaware that Western Illinois even played football before that game hit the schedule? Probably. I’m usually the dummy in the room. My thought was that Bobby P. would want to make a point in the opener. My thought now is that Arkansas is in 2008 what I thought they were in 2008; the sixth best team in the SEC West. But, can the Hogs beat a directional Louisiana school by at least two touchdowns? Fool me once…

The Pick: Arkansas 24

Louisiana Monroe 13

Ole Miss at Wake Forest: Wake by 8

After seeing the Rebs dismantle Memphis with a big play offense led by future SEC newcomer of the year QB Jevan Snead, I felt better about my selection of the Rebs as the surprise team of 2008. They’re not ready to compete for a spot in Atlanta but they are ready to be a pain in the posterior for teams more likely to secure that spot. The question: can a mid-level SEC team present problems for the best team in the ACC? It seems like we’ve already seen this storyline and received an answer, right Clemson?

Here are the differences:

• Wake is better than Clemson
• Bamma is better than Ole Miss
• The Deamon Deacons are playing in their home opener.

But, gut feeling. Ole Miss will utilize a speed advantage all over the field and will win the battle up front on both sides.

The Pick: Ole Miss 24

Wake Forest 23

Miami at Florida: Gators by 21 ½

Historically speaking, the mention of this match-up would make the most passive of college football fans excited. And it still does to nuts like me who want to believe that the Caines really do have a chance to put some drama into The Swamp Saturday night. But, the script has been flipped. These days it’s the Gators playing for Championships and it’s the Caines trying to get to that next level. I mean who is really the U here? Gator wideout Louis Murphy thinks the “U” stands for the University of Florida. Murphy argues that the Caines no longer can claim that distinction. Bulletin board material? Yes. Enough to make the team formerly known as the “U” to break through? Not so fast my friend. Plus, Percy and Brandon Spikes are back this week. Florida wins big! But maybe not as big as many may think.

The Pick: Florida 37

Miami 20

South Carolina at Vanderbilt: Gamecocks by 10 ½

At first sight, this is the strangest line of the week. Vandy played well as the Commodores rolled in week one. South Carolina waxed NC St. but Tommy Beecher threw four picks and lost his starting job to Chris Smelley. The Gamecock D is for real and will create much havoc for the Dores. Vanderbilt needs an early break out SEC win and certainly is in position as a program to get it Thursday. Bobby Johnson has won big games; at Tennessee, Georgia and #6 South Carolina. Why can they not realize similar success at home? I don’t know. But now is as good a time as any for Vanderbilt to take a large step.

The Pick:  Vanderbilt 20

South Carolina 17

Kentucky and Mississippi St. will win big and LSU’s game with Troy has, of course, been put on hold.

Where am I right, where am I wrong. Bring your picks for the weekend.

-Brent.