Big Week in This League:
I would have just called it what it is, the SEC. However, I love it when people discussing Southeastern Conference football describe it by calling it “this league.” I just want to be in that mix. One element to this weekend that is different than most times Florida and Tennessee get together is that the Gators visiting Knoxville is not the biggest match-up of the week. LSU and Auburn meet to decide the SEC West pecking order while also perhaps deciding one Atlanta participant. Bama/Arkansas, Vandy/Ole Miss, etc…It’s gonna be fun!
Florida is a 7 ½ point favorite in Neyland Stadium:
Is Florida that good or is Tennessee that bad? The Gators have looked impressive though Florida still looks for a consistently productive running back to go along with Tebow, Harvin et al. We hear that USC transfer Emmanuel Moody will finally get a bunch of carries. If Moody steps up like many including me, think, Florida will be in position to play for it all. The defense is still young but is now experienced. They certainly have the speed on D to neutralize Arian Foster if the Vols choose to continue in that direction in the run game. (More on that in a bit.) The Gators are athletic up front and will try to get in Crompton’s face in an attempt to make the inexperienced Vol QB to make questionable decisions. Crompton has obviously exhibited that trait thus far in 2008. The Gators are also explosive in the return games. These are all elements that comprise one of the two or three best teams in America. So, Florida wins big right? Maybe, but let’s consider other options while analyzing this game.
We all understand that the Vols have looked disjointed offensively for most of the first two games. This team is obviously trying to define its identity. While trying to decipher what might happen Saturday I will allow room for improvement for Tennessee’s offense from a knowledge stand point. I also will allow for a reasonable deduction from the Tennessee offensive staff that they have at least two running backs more capable of pounding the rock against Florida than the one they start every week. Have we all not seen enough of Montario Hardesty to know that he has the ability to have a huge game against a very quick defense? And, as I along with many other have been saying for quite some time, Lennon Creer will be the next great Vol back. No disrespect intended for Arian Foster. He has had an amazing career and will likely leave UT with the most rushing yards in school history. But, against a very fast defense, go with the guys who have wiggle and who both have the ability to get in open field and make things happen that were not drawn up on a dry erase board. No run gaining more than six yards in two years; that’s embarrassing.
I believe that Gerald Jones will be utilized more often and will be a factor. I believe that Jonathon Crompton will see more three-step drops with quick reads to wide-outs and a few more play-action passes to TE Brandon Warren.
Defensively, I expect Tennessee to give up a few big plays, but I also expect members of the Vol secondary to be carrying the football in the other direction at least twice.
Florida is a 7 ½ point favorite and does certainly have the ability to run the Vols out of their own building if Arian Foster has the most running back carries and if Tennessee cannot run the ball effectively. But, Montario Hardesty will be the star for the Vols and Tennessee will win.
The Pick: Tennessee 20
Florida 17
LSU v. Auburn:
The home team has won eight in a row in this series leading one to assume that Auburn will win this game. Until you consider AU’s anemic offensive performance last week in Starkville. The Tigers better bring more than that, and they will. LSU appears to be the more polished offensive team, but Auburn does have a defense more than capable of dealing with that. I want to pick LSU in this one, but I just think the atmosphere and the defense will get to the Geaux Tigers. LSU is favored by 2 ½.
The Pick: Auburn 13
LSU 10
Also:
Georgia at Arizona St.: The Bulldogs are favored by 7 on the road and win, but not by seven.
The Pick: Georgia 31
Arizona St. 27
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss: This one has been taken off the board by most, although, I have seen the Rebs listed as a seven point favorite. Ole Miss will put Vandy’s undefeated run to an end but not by 7.
The Pick: Ole Miss 30
Vanderbilt 24
Alabama at Arkansas: The Tide is a 9 ½ point favorite on the road. Arkansas is trying to change its offensive system 180 degrees and is still a Ryan Mallet away from doing that. Alabama wins easily on the road.
The Pick: Alabama 30
Arkansas 20
Mississippi St. at Georgia Tech: Ramblin’ Wreck is favored by 8. The Bulldogs need to find an offense somehow, somewhere. Will they find it this week? Not enough of it to win.
The Pick: Georgia Tech 10
Mississippi St. 6
Reviewing Last Week:
I managed to come up with 8 winners in nine games ATS while going 9-0 overall. That brings the season record to 19-9 ATS and 24-4 overall.
USC-Ohio St. re-visit:
As I write this piece I am watching the DVR’d Ohio St./USC
match-up from last weekend. This was by far the easiest game of the year to call. USC in a blowout. Wow, big surprise. Many thoughts come to mind as I re-visit this game. However, I will not bore you with those musings. I do however wonder why Todd Boeckman ever runs the option. I mean, you have the best high school player in football last year standing on the sidelines watching Todd Boeckman run the option? And, Ohio St. fan: I respect the history and the importance of your program. But, I don’t want to hear anything about Ohio St. seriously competing for a National Title again for a while. I mean, upgrade the speed and then get back with me. And, I know Buckeye fan, you did win one this decade – with the help of a VERY questionable call. Having said all of that, again, I do respect your program. I just hope for your sake, that you don’t run the table, that USC doesn’t lose a game and suffer late loss slippage putting you in position to play for it all against the Big 12 Champ or -gasp- the SEC Champ.
Happy Footballing, Brent.