Dougherty's Diatribe

A Quick Look Back:

So why would a reasonably intelligent man think that Tennessee could actually beat Florida in 2008? That is the question I keep asking myself. Could my orange blinders have been secured that tightly? I don’t think that’s the answer as I easily thought Florida, Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama would throttle the Vols last year. Maybe my UT past defined the answer to a point but not completely.

In a conversation with Tng8tr last week we discussed how Tennessee really had one basic way in which they could beat Florida and that Florida had many ways to get past Tennessee. But, I said before the season that Tennessee would beat Florida at home in ’08 and I stuck by my pick. Obviously I was way off. But, my season record against the spread this year remains good at this point. (21-13)

What can be learned from the 30-6 beat down at the hands of the Gators? The University of Tennessee football program is quickly trying to assimilate that information with a difficult road test on the plains coming up Saturday. Ultimately, it is what we all know. The separation between UT and the powers of the SEC is great. The Vols’ unlikely run to an SEC East title last year and a blowout win against Georgia in ’07 aside. The mountain to climb is very tall, the valley they’re in is very deep.

The most disturbing aspect to this game is that Florida seemed bored with the proceedings last Saturday. Despite some Tennessee players thinking they were just a few plays away, Florida simply went through the motions. Had they been pressed, the Gator playmakers would have made more plays. But, the performance was so dominant and the separation between the two programs so great that Florida literally coasted to a 30-6 win with an average performance. And, the separation doesn’t stop with Florida. LSU is an annual contender for the National Championship. Auburn was close last year and perfect just four years ago. Georgia may win it all this year. Bama is back and rollin’. Ole Miss will be the most improved tem in the league. And, Vanderbilt is 4-0 and ranked for the first time since I was 11 years old. I’m 35. It’s a quick moving league. Will Tennessee move with it?

Moving Forward:

The Vols certainly have a stiff test this week at Auburn. The loser will be 0-2 in league play. This is a similar challenge faced with Tennessee on several occasions in 2007. And, last year, with its collective back against the wall, Tennessee came up big. Will they again be able to find that inner strength?

Auburn, offensively had been going through growing pains much like Tennessee. A new offensive system, sporadic quarterback decisions and a team needing to rely on its defense as the offense tries to catch up. That is until Chris Todd’s performance last week against LSU. Todd appears ready to lead and lead now, which is of course a scary element to this game. Can Tennessee win Saturday? Yes. Will they, no.

Review of Picks:

Last week, I stumbled to a 2-4 week against the spread and 3-3 overall. For the year, I’m 21-13 against the spread and 27-7 overall.

This week:

Ole Miss at Florida: Gators are favored by 23. Despite my gut feel to pick the Gators and the points, I’m going the other way. I think Jevan Snead can have enough success to keep this one within three touchdowns.

The pick: Florida 38

Ole Miss 17

Arkansas at Texas: Longhorns by 27 ½. Would have been a blowout then, and certainly will be now.

The Pick: Texas 44

Arkansas 13

UAB at South Carolina: Gamecocks by 24 ½. UAB is bad, but are they this bad? Yes. USC rolls.

The Pick:  South Carolina 31

UAB   6

Western KY at Kentucky: Wildcats by 21. This is a tough one, because I think the line is right on it. So which way do I go? I loved Kentucky against Louiville, but the near loss against Middle Tennessee has me wondering which way this game will go.

The Pick:  Kentucky   38

Western Kentucky 13

Mississippi St. at LSU: Tigers by 24. How about a post big game win let down?

The Pick:  LSU   24

Mississippi St.  10

Alabama at Georgia: Buldogs by 7. I think Bama will give Georgia all they want. And it’s an intriguing match-up of frosh wide-outs. I just think that Georgia has more veteran talent, and that experience will win out in the fourth quarter.

The Pick:  Georgia 27

Bama 17

Tennessee at Auburn: Tigers by 6 ½. I love Auburn in this one. Tennessee is reeling and playing with very little confidence. This will be a very difficult environment for Crompton and the boys. I do want to throw in this side note. The 1990 TN/Auburn game is one of the most intense college football games I have ever seen. It’s a shame that these two cannot meet every year.

The Pick:  Auburn  24

Tennessee  17

Happy Footballing! -Brent.