Tennessee Wins:
That’s about the only positive statement that can be made following the Vols’ performance last week against Northern Illinois. A pay-per-view audience and a less than full house crowd watched Tennessee struggle to get past a directional school. With a similar performance against Georgia Saturday, Tennessee will not come within four touchdowns of the Dawgs. Also, Georgia will be extremely attentive Saturday based on what the Bulldogs are playing for and also based on what happened last year. Many think Tennessee is staring a long day right in the face, and with it, a 2-4 overall record and 0-3 conference mark. And, with Alabama coming to Knoxville in two weeks, the Vols could be 3-5 and 1-4 with four games left. Ouch!
Looking at what could be the finished product you can probably give the Vols wins against Mississippi St. and Wyoming which would be four. For argument’s sake let’s count Georgia, Alabama and Vanderbilt as losses giving them 6 with two swing games that will certainly be battles. Win both and get to 6-6. Lose both and it’s 4-8 in ’08. Is this an accurate view?
Move Made at QB, Should There Be One Made at RB Too?
Arian Foster is a bruising running back with good cruising speed and soft hands especially considering his size. Foster has rushed for 338 yards so far this season and with just 347 more in the final five games he will of course become Tennessee’s all-time leading rusher. That’s just 58 yards per game from history. Achieving that mark at Tennessee would certainly be an amazing accomplishment considering the great backs that wore the orange, some of which I’m sure immediately pop into your head while reading that sentence. (Quick side note: My favorite? Chillin’ Chuck – Charlie Garner.)
Given all of that, Montario Hardesty seems to run with more passion, attacking holes as he takes handoffs while rarely heading out of bounds with the football. Hardesty gets all he can out of each carry. He also has 4 touchdowns on 41 carries compared with 0 touchdowns in 65 carries for Foster.
And then there’s Lennon Creer, the admitted home run threat in the bunch. Since demonstrating crazy wiggle and breakaway speed with 93 yards and 2 TD’s against UAB, Creer has translated that success into 23 yards on 5 carries in the three games since. Even with that sparse call to duty, Creer is averaging almost nine yards per carry. Am I missing something here?
My depth chart would read: 1. Montario Hardesty
1A. Lennon Creer
3. Arian Foster
A Quick Review:
I was 3-2 against the spread and 4-1 overall last week. I was close on the Bama game with my 16-13 Tide prediction and I also picked Vanderbilt to beat Auburn 20-17. The ATS losses were Ole Miss and Tennessee. For the season, I’m 28-16 against the spread and 36-10 overall.
And now on to this week’s SEC games.
South Carolina at Kentucky: This game is listed as a pick ‘em so I’ll do just that. I’m going with the home team. Give me the Cats. Their only loss was by 3 points at the #2 ranked team in the country. Impressive.
The Pick: Kentucky 17
South Carolina 13
Arkansas at Auburn: War Eagle by 19. The Hogs are just what the doctor ordered for most teams especially for a team coming off a disappointing loss. Florida last week, Auburn this week. But, no cover here.
The Pick: Auburn 30
Arkansas 13
Vanderbilt at Mississippi St.: So the Commodores are undefeated, ranked 13th in America and are a 2 ½ point favorite on the road in the SEC. These are different times! Vandy is getting more respect, but not enough. Go Dores!
The Pick: Vanderbilt 23
Mississippi St. 10
LSU at Florida: Gators by 6. Florida got the easy win last week but picking this game looks easy, perhaps too easy. Is LSU better than Ole Miss? Yes. So are the Gators 6 points better than LSU? Not in my opinion. In fact, I’ll take the Geaux Tigers – trash talking and all – outright.
The Pick: LSU 24
Florida 20
Tennessee at Georgia: The Bulldogs are favored by 12 points. This is another easy one. A tough environment awaits a quarterback making just his second start. Plus, Georgia is the much better team and they will be searching for a payback for last year’s blowout loss at Tennessee when Georgia was the much better team. Here’s another scary Vol stat, the Orange O is averaging 10 ppg in the last three.
The Pick: Georgia 27
Tennessee 10
Quick hit about last week’s Ft. Campbell piece:
Thanks for the responses and e-mail’s regarding last week’s piece about the extraordinary Ft. Campbell high school football program. If you missed it, here’s the link:
http://www.volnation.com/blog/2008-10-01/doughertys-diatribe-10-1/
Thank you Elie Cestero. Your reply touched me deeply my firend. Go Falcons!
By the way, Ft. Campbell defeated Ft. Knox last week 70-0. The Falcons are 6-0 and have won 19 straight games dating back to last year.
Thanks for reading!
Brent Dougherty