(Part 1)
At first glance you might think the real question should be, when will Tennessee win a SEC Championship? Because in so doing, that accomplishment puts you in a driver’s seat to play for the National Championship.
Before that happy day can revisit the Vol faithful however, there are some interlocking pieces that must fall into place. It all begins with the talent Kiffin and Co. can bring into the fold.
The staff has laid out as its calling card that this program is run like a college ‘pro team’. The way you’re treated, the expectations, the competition, and even the routine. You get the impression that Tennessee has a swagger building and its not going anywhere but up.
Upward potential is a big part of the good news. There is a lot of upside to be had in the first three recruiting classes. The top four SEC schools are hard pressed to get much better. The downside is those four are in the top 1-12 nationally every year lately.
This isn’t likely to change anytime soon barring an abrupt coaching change, scandal, or serious sanctions against one of the top four. So what has to happen and how quick can Tennessee climb back to a perennial Top Ten team? First, let’s look at what makes this task so formidable.
The Nuts and Bolts
Since Urban Meyer has been at Florida, 66% of his players have hailed from Florida (The number one talent based state in total BCS recruits signed over the last five years). The Gators dip into Georgia (9%), Texas (6%), and California (4%). Interestingly, they like to pull some select players out of the Northeast. Enough so that it is a trend.
Alabama has taken a ‘closer to home’ approach to gathering talent. During Saban’s tenure (2007-2009) 79% of his players have been from the state of Alabama or a state bordering it (AL – 47%, GA – 12%, FL – 8%, MS – 7%, TN – 5%) with nearby Louisiana – 5%. This strategy is working well as the Tide had a top two class in 2009.
Lane Kiffin would love to have a lofty 50% plus instate player base. Putting this program back on top and doing it quickly however, means strategies that establish inroads where the best talent can be found. Take a snapshot right now that include what Tennessee did with the 2009 class and what it has by way of commitments for 2010. The breakdown is: Tennessee (18%), Georgia (18%), and Florida (18%). With a potential payoff in California (8%) looming, it becomes apparent that the large talent pools are THE play with this staff.
What this means is that it takes a tremendous energy level to get back to even with the Florida and Alabama’s. Both these schools are winning. Add LSU and Georgia to the mix and it is a formidable task.
The top tier SEC schools recruiting is not static. It is dynamic. You might compare it to a sprinter having a breeze in his face as opposed to having it at his back. It literally means winning one battle, one player at a time.
This also means the home state loyalty approach is a non-factor more times than not. So what can help expedite the effort?