Saturday Tennessee will face an Urban Meyer led Florida team in Gainesville for the third time. The first two have not gone the ways the Vols would have liked. This Saturday will be another test all its own. It very well could be the last.
Tennessee will bring new coaches, a new vibe, lots of young players, and a seriously banged up offensive line. A disappointing loss at home to UCLA should not affect anyone’s focus. But most expect Florida to extend Meyer’s home win streak against the Vols with ease, again.
So with all the success achieved and expected, why would it abruptly end? How could Urban Meyer end up missing from the Swamp?
Meyer made a point late this summer to state empathically that he is not going anywhere. Of course when a head coach says it’s not going to happen, we all know that’s the end of it, right? Still, there are some intriguing developments.
Florida’s head man has oft alluded to Notre Dame as his dream job, one of his Big Three. The Gators were not included. He chose Florida over Notre Dame the first time around, due to the youthfulness of his family. That was five seasons ago.
Here are a few reasons why this could be the Vols last shot at Meyer in Gainesville.
The Buyout: Regardless of the new six million dollar contract thru 2014, the Devil is in the details. If any school can hire Meyer away from the Gators, the buyout is a mere $500,000.
That’s one half of one million dollars. When Tennessee made a coaching change last October there was a SIX million dollar buyout. Florida has taken a posture of ‘hey, we want our coaches to want to be here.’ But clearly, it opens the door of possibility even wider.
Weis has a buyout reportedly in the four million dollar plus range. So Notre Dame could payout Weis, pay Meyer’s buyout, and give him a raise to make him the highest paid college coach in the country. All for less than replacing Coach Fulmer last season.
Recruiting Inroads: Florida has consistently recruited the Northeast (for this model we are using east of the Mississippi River and north of the TN/NC borders). Of the126 recruits and current commits, 15% hail from this section of the country.
A rather odd number considering he could bring in those same caliber players from the Southeast. Not one of the upper level teams in the SEC come close to the numbers Meyer has pulled from this sector. Why?
Remember when the current Tennessee staff got a late start on the 2009 class? While they managed to do an outstanding job, you heard talk about building relationships, trust, a good rapport with players, coaches, and high schools. That’s how you convince recruits to come play for you. It certainly has the appearance of laying the groundwork.
While Notre Dame recruits nationally, the northeast is their backyard for finding players. In fact recruitment numbers of the Northeast under Meyer mirrors Weis recruiting numbers in Florida. Meyer has 15 players and commits out of the northeast sector since 2005. Weis has had 12 out of Florida in the same time period.
So Meyer has a home base in the southeast, particularly Florida. He’s maintained inroads into the northeast, a necessary part of Notre Dames recruiting base. Is there more?
The X-Factors: Charlie Weis needs to take full advantage of a weak schedule and get into the BCS party. If Notre Dame falls short of a BCS bowl game this year. Time may have run out for Weis. IF Florida makes an appearance in or wins the National Championship Game, it would three in four years.
At this level, challenges are a big part of what it’s all about. True, there is a challenge in maintaining what Florida has achieved. There are four to five SEC teams hovering inside the Top 10 in recruiting classes. The competition within the SEC is getting stronger. Yet Urban Meyer may hear another challenge, even more to his liking.
A legend of a program, fallen on hard(er) times. A coach who left his heart there. A fan base that has become weary as to whether Weis can make it happen. It all adds up to Urban Meyer coming home to save the day. It doesn’t matter whether he stays or goes to Tennessee. But it would be nice to send him out a loser if in fact this is the Vols last shot in the Swamp.
4 responses to “Vols Last Shot at Meyer in the Swamp?”
excellent work, great insight on the recruiting aspect
Dream on… you guys are going to have to face Meyer in SEC play for a loooong time. I wish I could say the same for Kiffin, but if his mouth keeps writing checks his coaching can’t cash, it’ll be a short time for his regime in Knoxville.
This isn’t really a knock against the University of Tennessee. Even as a recent Gator grad and passionate fan, I respect this rivalry and what Tennessee has done over the years with their program. UF – UT is what made me love college football; it truly is one of the greatest rivalries in modern football.
What I regret is Kiffin’s actions before he even started his first year. As much as I loved to hate Fulmer, the guy was a legendary class act and always kept his composure even after Spurrier lit a fire on his butt. I secretly admired Fulmer’s poignancy and felt pretty bad when Tennessee struggled under his helm. Kiffin now makes me actually want UT to struggle, just so he can get some sense of humility before his program rises.
That being said, I hope the best for all Volunteers this weekend, yet will be rooting hard for the Gators to give Kiffin a strong kick in the ass. Go Gators!
How many times can this story be rehashed even after literally years of it being refuted? Meyer is not going to leave Florida for any other college football coaching job. His family being young and being forced to recruit nationally at Notre Dame was a factor in his decision five years ago but it still is today as his youngest child is still in middle school. Ultimately Urban Meyer wants to win championships. The University of Florida has all of the advantages that allow it the ability to consistently field a national power of a football program. Notre Dame has strikes against it in regards to recruiting base, academic admittance hurdles and conference affiliation which ultimately put it at a disadvantage as to its ability to reach the BCSCG. Heck even their exclusive TV contract’s appeal to recruits has eroded with greater coverage of other schools.
If you want to talk about Urban Meyer going anywhere talk about the NFL. Personally I don’t think he’s an NFL man but at least hearing that argument would be less odious than rehashing of this same dribble.
Why is this still a story? Does Vol Nation want Meyer to go? Or would you not like to beat him at his game? The Florida Athletic Program has given Meyer all he could wants…and in turn he has given us far beyond out expectations. I think we have something beyond a Nick Saban here. I wonder what you will say when you see him two years from now. If there is a coach that may not make it in two years I would put my money on Kiffin.