If you told Tennessee fans back in the spring that an 8-4 season and the Outback Bowl would be on the table in November, most would have been happy. A few would have been ecstatic.
Well, it IS November and the Vols control their destiny. Namely, an 8-4 season with the opportunity to play in the Outback Bowl. Somewhere in the 10 weeks of the college football season however, Tennessee fans have decided to reach higher.
Expectations
The Cotton Bowl or someway, somehow the Capital One Bowl are being bantered about as fan favorites. Part of the lure is for something bigger, more marquis than the Big Ten’s # 3 team. Partly a change of scenery (Tennessee’s last two bowls were in Tampa) and maybe a dash of realizing the bar of expectation is moving up as we speak.
The high expectations fall squarely on Lane Kiffin and his coaching staffs shoulders. Ask him about the 56-28 squashing of Memphis. He will acknowledge the solid play of the first team units. But his focus, his fire is on being outscored 21-14 in the second half.
And as always he will turn to recruiting. Recruiting for quality, speed and depth. Speaking of recruiting, there has been some speculation that John Cullen, Chaz Green, and Juwaun James may be in Oxford this weekend.
The Real Deal?
So there’s much riding on the game with Ole Miss. Tennessee goes into Oxford a 3.5 point dog. As good as the Vols have played lately; this game has a huge say in validating where Tennessee is headed this season.
That three and one–half points is not as much about home field advantage as Tennessee needing to show they can be the real deal on the road. Plus Ole Miss has talent, they have underachieved this year and that alone makes them dangerous.
Identifying the Trend
When you look at these two teams, it’s easy to talk about their trending pattern. The chart at the top of the page is one example that speaks to who is heading in what direction.
Let’s use Jonathan Crompton’s Passing Efficiency Rating as the indicator for how Tennessee is trending. His average PE rating through the first three games is 107, the second set of three, 147. The last three games he’s averaged 161. This is without a doubt an upward trend.
Add to that the Vols winning the turnover battles and it’s no wonder Tennessee fans are excited going forward.
In contrast, the Ole miss program has been a disappointment this season. We can use their national ranking based on the AP poll as their indicator.
In the first three weeks of the season, they averaged ranking 5th (with a high of 4th) in the country. The second three games, they slipped to an average of 15th place. In the last three games, they have fallen to an average of 29th (currently in 37th).
What is Means
Ole Miss is dangerous for having the talent that hasn’t lived up to the hype this season.
They will be motivated to become bowl eligible (Ole Miss can only count one win against FCS teams, N. Arizona and S.E. Louisiana).
Will they continue their lackluster play with a quarterback whose thrown more interceptions than Crompton and fewer touchdowns?
For Tennessee its show time, or as the saying goes around here, “It’s Time”. There can be no hangover from the second half of the Memphis game. Given how irate and disappointed the staff was with the second and third string guys, there shouldn’t be.
A possible 9 win season hinges on taking care of the ball and continuing to trend upward. This game is the right time for Tennessee to get bowl eligible and finish strong with untold payoff on the recruiting end.