Lane Kiffin and his staff are honing in on their second consecutive top ten recruiting class. The 2010 class has the real possibility of being in the top three, maybe even better. With that in mind VN takes a look at the state of Tennessee with regards to its talent base.
Over the last eight (8) years (2002-2009), the Vols have averaged signing 6.5 in-state players per year. This amounts to 27% of players signed (52 out of 191). This year could be as low as one (1). That one is Jacques Smith, the number one rated player in the state and a solid Vol.
On the surface 27% may seem like a fairly good number. Other in-state numbers such as Alabama (45%), Florida (over 65%), Georgia (58%), and Louisiana (49%) show a heavier lean on in-state players.
Of the 52 in-state players, nine (9) or 17% come from Memphis. Memphis presents a unique situation for the coaching staff. With Tennessee recruiting and landing players from as far away as south Florida, Illinois, and California, why does 391 miles matter?
As the above chart shows, it is much closer to Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Alabama than Knoxville. One way these schools garner interest and loyalties are by their proximity. A round trip to Oxford is 170 miles compared to almost 800 for Knoxville. Certainly not insurmountable, but yet a factor.
Here are three of the base reasons for who Tennessee signs from in-state and what affects those numbers:
Top tier talent. This coaching staff is playing catch up. With 21 players missing thru various forms of attrition, there will be no ‘coasting’ years. The up one year, down the next recruiting cycle would spell disaster for what Lane Kiffin is rebuilding here.
So the Vols literally have to go after the best of the best in high school talent. In-state you will find six four stars and 13 three stars (based on Rivals numbers).
This means that by necessity Tennessee will look beyond it borders for the best players, while landing prize players such as Smith, and looking to avoid loses such as Marlon Brown from Memphis last year.
When we look at SEC school recruiting in the SEC states, a similar pattern is seen. Most schools are delving outside their home state in search of talent. The hotbeds for talent this year are in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.
Position Needs. Some years the best players at the positions of need are not in Tennessee. This year for instance. Offensive linemen are one of those needs. It remains to be seen if James Stone out of Maplewood in Nashville pans out. It looks less likely at this point.
Factor in the need for some immediate starting help and it makes sense why JUCO’s like John Cullen are in the mix for a spot in the is class.
Plus, this is a year where a kicker had to be taken (Michael Palardy, arguably the best kicking prospect in the country which merits 3 stars. Go figure) A huge need for OL who generally speaking don’t pad a team’s recruiting ranking.
Under this category to is the type of positional player that works well for the style of offense and defense. Tennessee’s defense under Monte Kiffin is predicated on speed. A recruit may have the necessary tools to play the ’Mike’ but if he doesn’t have the cover ability to drop back in the shallow middle of the two deep, that’s a problem.
Outside of the number of stars and the hype, this staff evaluates extremely well by all accounts. While the better the class ranking is for the PR side of things, the Vols are going to build a team that can do what the coaches want them to be able to do on the field.
Talent Cycles. Some years are better than others for in state talent. For instance 2007 provided a good pool of talent that went to numerous Top 20 recruiting classes.
Some would say a placement of D1 talent is a better indicator. For this article, we are looking at primarily SEC competition and Top 20 recruiting class competition. That is who the Vols compete with for players.
The chart above gives some indication of the cyclical nature of talent coming out of Tennessee. It is the number and percentage of players from Tennessee who signed with Top 20 recruiting classes over the last five years.
It is somewhat of a down year for SEC / Top 20 recruiting class numbers for talent in the state of Tennessee. Next year looks better.
The fence Lane Kiffin spoke about is needed. The misconception however may lie in the quantity of players taken. Tennessee is vying for the best players in the nation. When they are home-grown, the Vols want and need them.
Between now and the first Wednesday in February, a lot will happen. There will be surprises and a disappointment here and there. After all the assessments. letters, calls, and visits Tennessee will end up with a very good recruiting class.
We all hope to see as many players from the state of Tennessee as possible helping the Tennessee take back the SEC East, the conference and hopefully another national championship.